Scenarios emphasize wide range of uncertainty for future energy and oil demand

This Outlook describes two alternative scenarios relative to the Reference Case. The ‘Technology-Driven ’ Scenario illustrates a different pathway to the dominant narrative on emissions reduction; one that achieves the goal of limiting the global temperature increase at well below 2°C, while avoiding a substantial negative economic impact on developing economies, especially those who export energy, and at the same time, ensuring a high degree of energy security. Global oil demand in this scenario stabilizes at a level above 100 mb/d in the period to around 2040, before moderately slowing to 96 mb/d over the last ten years of the outlook period. This represents a demand difference of 24 mb/d compared to the Reference Case in 2050.

By contrast, the ‘Equitable Growth’ Scenario illustrates a pathway that envisages a more equitable and prosperous economic future for developing countries, coupled with a differentiated approach to how and when to achieve emission reduction targets. This scenario results in higher long-term energy demand, in general, and oil, in particular. Oil demand in this scenario tops 115 mb/d by 2030 and continues growing to 127 mb/d in 2050. Compared to the Reference Case, this is higher by almost 2 mb/d in 2030 and by 7.1 mb/d in 2050.