Global crude and condensate trade flows rise to 46.2 mb/d by 2050

Global interregional crude oil and condensate trade are expected to increase from 36.5 mb/d in 2023 to 41.2 mb/d by 2030 on the back of strong oil demand growth. After 2030, trade is expected to continue to increase further, reaching levels around 46.2 mb/d by 2050. The Middle East and Latin America are expected to be the main contributors to global crude and condensate exports throughout the outlook period.

Middle East increases its share in global crude and condensate trade

Global crude and condensate exports are heavily dominated by the Middle East, with its share standing at almost 49% in 2023. Due to a strong increase in crude and condensate exports from Latin America and the US & Canada, the Middle East’s share is expected to decline marginally by 2030. In the post-2030 period, however, the Middle East’s share in the total export mix is projected to increase to almost 58% by 2050.

Asia-Pacific crude and condensate imports rise by almost 10 mb/d by 2050

Total crude and condensate import volumes to the Asia-Pacific reached levels of around 24 mb/d in 2023. They are expected to increase to above 29 mb/d in 2030 and rise further to around 33.8 mb/d in 2050. This is predominantly due to increasing oil demand in the Asia-Pacific, but also because of declining domestic supply from ageing local oilfields. The major source of incremental volumes is set to come from the Middle East, with shipments increasing from 15.1 mb/d in 2023 to 23 mb/d in 2050.