In the medium term, around 6.3 mb/d of refining capacity additions are expected at the global level. The majority of new capacity is projected for the Asia-Pacific (3.2 mb/d), Africa (1.4 mb/d) and the Middle East (1.2 mb/d). The global annual average rate of capacity additions for the period from 2024–2029 is estimated at just above 1 mb/d.
Global required refining additions to 2050 are projected at 19.2 mb/d (including creep capacity expansions). Similar to oil demand growth, refining capacity additions are front-loaded, with a slowdown in the rate of additions after 2040. Almost 90% of new refining capacity is set to be located in the Asia-Pacific, Africa and the Middle East. This is a continuation of the historical trend that sees refining capacity migrating from developed to developing countries.
Refinery runs are expected to increase from 81.8 mb/d in 2023 to almost 90 mb/d in 2030. The growth is set to be slower in the post-2030 period with global runs reaching 93 mb/d in 2040 and nearly 94 mb/d in 2050. US & Canada and Europe, as well as developed Asia-Pacific, are set to decline from 2030 onwards. This is more than offset by strong increases in developing regions, such as Asia-Pacific, Middle East, Africa and Latin America.
Source: OPEC
Source: OPEC
Source: OPEC
Source: OPEC
Source: OPEC
Source: OPEC
Source: OPEC
* Potential: based on expected distillation capacity expansion; assuming no closures.
** Required: based on projected demand increases assuming no change in refined products trade pattern.
Source: OPEC
Source: OPEC
Source: OPEC
Source: OPEC
Source: OPEC
Source: OPEC
Source: OPEC
Source: OPEC
Source: OPEC
Source: OPEC
Source: OPEC
* Effective ‘spare’ capacity estimate based on assumed 84% utilization rate, accounting for already-closed capacity.
Source: OPEC
Source: OPEC
Source: OPEC
Source: OPEC
Source: OPEC
* Projects and additions exclude naphtha desulphurization.
Source: OPEC
* Projects and additions exclude naphtha desulphurization.
Source: OPEC
Source: OPEC
* Declining product demand in some regions contributes to the surplus
Source: OPEC
| US & Canada | Latin America | Africa | Europe | Russia & Caspian | Middle East | China | Other Asia-Pacific | World | |
| Distillation | |||||||||
| Crude oil (atmospheric) | 19.6 | 7.8 | 3.5 | 15.0 | 7.9 | 11.4 | 17.8 | 18.9 | 101.9 |
| Vacuum | 9.3 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 7.5 | 5.8 | 39.6 |
| Upgrading | |||||||||
| Coking | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.1 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 9.3 |
| Catalytic cracking | 6.0 | 1.6 | 0.2 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 19.9 |
| Hydro cracking | 2.6 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 11.6 |
| Visbreaking | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 4.0 |
| Solvent deasphalting | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 1.2 |
| Octane units | |||||||||
| Reforming | 4.0 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 2.4 | 2.9 | 15.1 |
| Isomerization | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 3.0 |
| Alkylation | 1.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 2.7 |
| Polymerization | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
| MTBE/ETBE | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.6 |
| Desulphurization | |||||||||
| Naphtha | 5.1 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 18.0 |
| Gasoline | 3.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 8.1 |
| Middle distillates | 7.4 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 3.7 | 4.8 | 6.9 | 34.3 |
| Heavy oil/Residual fuel | 3.5 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 3.1 | 11.2 |
| Sulphur (short tons/day) | 44,276 | 7,282 | 3,469 | 20,091 | 8,701 | 16,787 | 23,936 | 39,267 | 163,810 |
| Hydrogen (million scf/d) | 6,263 | 1,251 | 354 | 5,047 | 2,182 | 3,670 | 6,913 | 6,386 | 32,066 |
| US & Canada | Latin America | Africa | Europe | Russia & Caspian | Middle East | China | Other Asia-Pacific | World | |
| 2024 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.8 |
| 2025 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 1.6 |
| 2026 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.9 |
| 2027 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 1.0 |
| 2028 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 1.0 |
| 2029 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.9 |
| 2024 - 2029 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 1.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 6.3 |
| Share | 1.3% | 5.7% | 21.8% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 18.8% | 18.2% | 32.9% | 100.0% |
| Distillation capacity additions starting 2024 | ||||
| Assessed projects* | New Units | Total | Annualized | |
| 2024 - 2030 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 9.4 | 1.3 |
| 2030 - 2035 | 0.0 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 0.9 |
| 2035 - 2040 | 0.0 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 0.6 |
| 2040 - 2045 | 0.0 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.3 |
| 2045 - 2050 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| Cumulative distillation capacity additions | ||||
| Assessed projects* | New Units | Total | Annualized | |
| 2024 - 2030 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 9.4 | 1.3 |
| 2024 - 2035 | 6.3 | 7.3 | 13.7 | 1.1 |
| 2024 - 2040 | 6.3 | 10.2 | 16.5 | 1.0 |
| 2024 - 2045 | 6.3 | 11.8 | 18.2 | 0.8 |
| 2024 - 2050 | 6.3 | 12.9 | 19.2 | 0.7 |
| Total crude unit throughputs (mb/d) | |||||||||
| US & Canada | Latin America | Africa | Europe | Russia & Caspian | Middle East | China | Other Asia-Pacific | Global | |
| 2023 | 17.7 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 11.8 | 6.6 | 8.0 | 14.8 | 16.7 | 81.8 |
| 2030 | 18.0 | 5.6 | 3.5 | 11.5 | 6.5 | 9.6 | 16.3 | 18.9 | 89.8 |
| 2035 | 18.0 | 6.1 | 4.4 | 11.2 | 6.2 | 10.0 | 16.5 | 20.0 | 92.4 |
| 2040 | 18.0 | 6.5 | 5.0 | 9.9 | 6.1 | 10.2 | 16.3 | 20.9 | 93.0 |
| 2045 | 17.6 | 6.7 | 5.2 | 9.7 | 6.1 | 10.4 | 16.3 | 21.4 | 93.4 |
| 2050 | 17.0 | 6.9 | 5.5 | 9.5 | 6.1 | 10.6 | 16.2 | 22.0 | 93.8 |
| Crude unit utilizations (% of calendar day capacity) | |||||||||
| US & Canada | Latin America | Africa | Europe | Russia & Caspian | Middle East | China | Other Asia-Pacific | Global | |
| 2023 | 90.2 | 58.4 | 49.6 | 78.6 | 83.8 | 70.0 | 83.2 | 88.1 | 80.3 |
| 2030 | 90.8 | 68.4 | 68.1 | 79.7 | 80.9 | 75.3 | 83.3 | 84.3 | 81.5 |
| 2035 | 88.9 | 72.5 | 73.3 | 77.5 | 77.3 | 76.2 | 80.3 | 84.2 | 80.7 |
| 2040 | 88.7 | 76.7 | 74.3 | 68.6 | 75.6 | 76.9 | 77.9 | 83.2 | 79.2 |
| 2045 | 86.5 | 78.5 | 74.9 | 66.9 | 75.4 | 77.8 | 77.6 | 81.6 | 78.5 |
| 2050 | 83.3 | 80.3 | 77.9 | 66.1 | 74.7 | 79.0 | 77.4 | 81.3 | 78.1 |
| Total 2020-2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | Total 2024-2029 | |
| US & Canada | 1.4 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.4 |
| Latin America | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Europe | 0.9 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.4 |
| Russia & Caspian | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Africa | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
| Middle East | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Asia-Pacific | 1.8 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
| Total | 4.5 | 0.1 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 |
| By year | |||
| Conversion | Desulphurization* | Octane units | |
| 2024 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2025 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2026 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2027 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 2028 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2029 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| By region | |||
| Conversion | Desulphurization* | Octane units | |
| US & Canada | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Latin America | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| Africa | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| Europe | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Russia & Caspian | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| Middle East | 0.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 |
| China | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| Other Asia | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| World | 4.3 | 4.9 | 1.6 |
| Existing projects | Additional requirements | Total additions | ||
| to 2029* | 2030-2040 | 2040-2050 | to 2050 | |
| Crude distillation | 6.3 | 10.2 | 2.7 | 19.2 |
| Conversion | 4.3 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 10.8 |
| Coking/Visbreaking | 0.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 2.9 |
| Catalytic cracking | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 2.8 |
| Hydro-cracking | 2.2 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 5.1 |
| Desulphurization** | 3.5 | 10.5 | 5.4 | 19.4 |
| Gasoline | 0.7 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 4.0 |
| Distillate | 2.4 | 7.1 | 3.7 | 13.3 |
| VGO/Resid | 0.4 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 2.2 |
| Octane units*** | 1.6 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 6.1 |
| Catalytic reforming | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 4.0 |
| Alkylation | 0.2 | 1.3 | 0.2 | 1.7 |
| Isomerization | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 |
| MTBE | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.3 |
| Gasoline / Naphtha | Middle distillates | Fuel oil | Other products | Total | |
| 2024 | 0.23 | 0.36 | -0.01 | 0.27 | 0.9 |
| 2025 | 0.75 | 0.98 | -0.08 | 0.75 | 2.4 |
| 2026 | 1.05 | 1.38 | -0.17 | 1.06 | 3.3 |
| 2027 | 1.35 | 1.85 | -0.21 | 1.35 | 4.3 |
| 2028 | 1.64 | 2.30 | -0.18 | 1.60 | 5.4 |
| 2029 | 1.88 | 2.68 | -0.12 | 1.81 | 6.3 |
| Share | 30% | 43% | -2% | 29% | 100% |