This year’s WOO focuses on non-Declaration of Cooperation (non-DoC) liquids supply. In the medium term, non-DoC liquids supply is projected to increase from 51.7 mb/d in 2023 to 58.8 mb/d in 2029, or by 7.1 mb/d. Once again, the largest medium-term source of non-DoC liquids supply growth is the US, where total output is set to rise by 2.3 mb/d in the 2023–2029 period, or from
20.9 mb/d to 23.2 mb/d. Other significant supply increments in this timeframe come from Brazil (1 mb/d), Canada (0.6 mb/d), Qatar (0.5 mb/d), Argentina (0.3 mb/d) and Norway (0.2 mb/d).
DoC liquids supply is projected to expand from 50.3 mb/d in 2023 to 53.8 mb/d in 2029. After non-DoC liquids supply peaks in the early 2030s, DoC liquids supply by contrast keeps growing, rising to 62.9 mb/d by 2050. This means that the DoC’s share in global liquids supply increases from 49% in 2023 to 52% in 2050.
Long-term non-DoC liquids supply expands from 51.7 mb/d in 2023 to 57.3 mb/d in 2050, or by 5.5 mb/d. Despite US production declining over this time horizon, after peaking around 2030, this is more than offset by higher output in Latin America, Canada, the (non-DoC) Middle East and global refinery processing gains. Other regions see only modest change.
In order to reliably meet expected oil demand growth, oil sector investment needs are significant. Total cumulative requirements between 2024 and 2050 are estimated at $17.4 trillion, or around $640 billion p.a. on average (all in US$2024).
The bulk of this is required in the upstream, where total investment needs are $14.2 trillion, or around $525 billion p.a. Downstream and midstream investment needs over the same period are forecast to be $1.9 trillion and $1.3 trillion, respectively.
Source: OPEC
Source: OPEC
Source: OPEC
Source: OPEC
Data not available for this figure
Source: OPEC
Source: OPEC
Source: OPEC
Source: OPEC
Source: OPEC
Source: OPEC
Source: OPEC
Source: OPEC
Source: OPEC
* Africa other includes Cameroon, Senegal, Tunisia, Uganda and smaller producers, but excludes African OPEC producers
Source: OPEC
Source: OPEC
Source: OPEC
Source: OPEC
[$ (2024) trillion]
Source: OPEC
| 2023 | 2030 | 2035 | 2040 | 2045 | 2050 | Change 2023-2050 | |
| US | 20.9 | 23.0 | 22.1 | 21.1 | 20.2 | 19.4 | -1.5 |
| of which: tight oil | 13.7 | 16.7 | 16.5 | 16.1 | 15.5 | 14.8 | 1.1 |
| Canada | 5.7 | 6.4 | 6.4 | 6.7 | 7.0 | 7.5 | 1.8 |
| of which: oil sands | 3.2 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 4.1 | 4.5 | 5.0 | 1.7 |
| OECD Americas | 26.6 | 29.4 | 28.5 | 27.8 | 27.2 | 26.9 | 0.3 |
| OECD Europe | 3.7 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 0.4 |
| OECD Asia Pacific | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| Latin America | 7.0 | 9.2 | 10.1 | 10.6 | 10.7 | 10.5 | 3.6 |
| Middle East | 2.0 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 0.7 |
| Africa | 2.2 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 0.2 |
| China | 4.5 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.3 | -0.2 |
| India | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.0 |
| Other Asia | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | -0.3 |
| Other Eurasia | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | -0.2 |
| Global refinery processing gains | 2.5 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 0.9 |
| Non-DoC liquids | 51.7 | 59.0 | 58.9 | 58.5 | 57.8 | 57.3 | 5.5 |
| Total DoC Liquids | 50.3 | 54.5 | 57.6 | 59.4 | 61.1 | 62.9 | 12.7 |
| World | 102.0 | 113.5 | 116.5 | 117.8 | 119.0 | 120.2 | 18.2 |
| 2023 | 2030 | 2035 | 2040 | 2045 | 2050 | Change 2023-2050 | |
| US tight oil | 13.7 | 16.7 | 16.5 | 16.1 | 15.5 | 14.8 | 1.1 |
| of which: tight crude | 8.4 | 10.1 | 9.7 | 9.3 | 8.7 | 8.0 | -0.4 |
| of which: unconventional NGLs | 5.3 | 6.5 | 6.8 | 6.8 | 6.8 | 6.8 | 1.5 |
| US Gulf of Mexico crude | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | -0.7 |
| US Alaska crude | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | -0.3 |
| US other crude | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | -2.0 |
| US other NGLs | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | -0.2 |
| US biofuels | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 |
| US other liquids | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| Memo item: US total crude | 12.9 | 13.9 | 12.6 | 11.5 | 10.5 | 9.5 | -3.4 |
| Memo item: US total NGLs | 6.4 | 7.5 | 7.7 | 7.7 | 7.7 | 7.7 | 1.3 |
| Total US liquids production | 20.9 | 23.0 | 22.1 | 21.1 | 20.2 | 19.4 | -1.5 |
| 2023 | 2030 | 2035 | 2040 | 2045 | 2050 | Change 2023-2050 | |
| Crude | 31.5 | 35.2 | 33.7 | 32.0 | 30.3 | 28.5 | -3.0 |
| NGLs | 10.6 | 12.6 | 13.0 | 13.2 | 13.2 | 13.4 | 2.8 |
| Biofuels | 3.1 | 3.7 | 4.2 | 4.7 | 4.9 | 5.2 | 2.2 |
| Other liquids | 4.2 | 4.7 | 5.0 | 5.5 | 6.1 | 6.8 | 2.7 |
| Processing gains | 2.5 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 0.9 |
| Total non-DoC | 51.7 | 59.0 | 58.9 | 58.5 | 57.8 | 57.3 | 5.5 |
| 2023 | 2030 | 2035 | 2040 | 2045 | 2050 | Change 2023-2050 | |
| US | 13.7 | 16.7 | 16.5 | 16.1 | 15.5 | 14.8 | 1.1 |
| Canada | 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.1 |
| Argentina | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.9 |
| China | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| Other | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Total tight oil | 15.2 | 18.6 | 18.7 | 18.4 | 18.0 | 17.5 | 2.3 |
| 2023 | 2030 | 2035 | 2040 | 2045 | 2050 | Change 2023-2050 | |
| Fuel ethanol | 1.9 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 0.9 |
| Biodiesel | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 1.2 |
| Global biofuels | 3.1 | 3.7 | 4.2 | 4.7 | 5.0 | 5.3 | 2.2 |
| Canadian oil sands | 3.2 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 4.1 | 4.5 | 5.0 | 1.7 |
| Gas-to-liquids (GTL) | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 |
| Coal-to-liquids (CTL) | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| Synthetic aviation fuel | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Other* | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | -0.1 |
| Total 'Other liquids' | 4.2 | 4.7 | 5.1 | 5.5 | 6.1 | 6.8 | 2.7 |
| Non-DoC total | 7.3 | 8.4 | 9.3 | 10.2 | 11.1 | 12.1 | 4.8 |