Global oil demand is projected to reach 112.3 million barrels a day (mb/d) in 2029, representing a strong increase of 10.1 mb/d compared to 2023. However, the regional breakdown of this medium-term expansion shows a contrasting picture between continued non-OECD demand growth and rather stagnating OECD demand. Non-OECD oil demand is projected to increase by a healthy 9.6 mb/d between 2023 and 2029 to reach 66.2 mb/d, while OECD demand is set to oscillate around 46 mb/d over the same period.
In the long term, global oil demand is expected to increase by almost 18 mb/d, rising from 102.2 mb/d in 2023 to 120.1 mb/d in 2050. While non-OECD demand is projected to increase by 28 mb/d between 2023 and 2050, OECD demand is set to witness a decline.
Extending the outlook’s time horizon to 2050 amplifies the role of India, Other Asia, Africa and the Middle East as the key sources of incremental demand in the coming years. Combined demand in these four regions is set to increase by 22 mb/d between 2023 and 2050. India alone will add 8 mb/d to its oil demand during the forecast period. China’s oil demand is projected to increase by 2.5 mb/d.
The largest incremental demand during the forecast period is projected for the petrochemicals, road transportation and aviation sectors. Oil demand in these sectors in the long term is set to increase by 4.9 mb/d, 4.6 mb/d and 4.2 mb/d, respectively.
Demand projections in the road transportation sector indicate strong growth over the current decade before stabilizing at levels above 50 mb/d for the rest of the forecast period. By then, the penetration of EVs is set to increasingly play a role. The global vehicle fleet is forecast to increase from 1.7 billion in 2023 to 2.9 billion in 2050 with the fastest growth expected in the EVs segment. Nevertheless, ICE-based vehicles are expected to continue to dominate the global fleet and still account for more than 70% in 2050.
With respect to refined products, strong long-term demand growth is expected for ethane/liquefied petroleum gas (+4.2 mb/d). The larger part of this demand growth relates to the use of ethane as a petrochemical feedstock, mainly in OECD Americas and the Middle East. The strong projected demand growth in the petrochemical sector, especially in Asia, is set to lead to increased naphtha demand (+2.8 mb/d) too. Demand growth in the aviation sector sees jet/kerosene rising by 4 mb/d between 2023 and 2050, while road transportation is the key sector for increases in diesel/gasoil (+3.5 mb/d) and gasoline (+2.5 mb/d).
Source: OPEC
Source: OPEC
Source: OPEC
Source: OPEC
Source OPEC
Source: OPEC
Source OPEC
Source: OPEC
Source: OPEC
Source OPEC
Source: OPEC
Source: OPEC
Source: OPEC
Source: OPEC
Source: OPEC
Source: OPEC
Source: OPEC
Source: OPEC
Source: OPEC
Source: OPEC
Source OPEC
Source: OPEC
Source: OPEC
| 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | Growth 2023-2029 | |
| OECD Americas | 25.0 | 25.2 | 25.3 | 25.4 | 25.5 | 25.6 | 25.7 | 0.7 |
| OECD Europe | 13.4 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 13.4 | 13.3 | 13.2 | -0.2 |
| OECD Asia-Pacific | 7.2 | 7.2 | 7.3 | 7.3 | 7.3 | 7.3 | 7.2 | 0.0 |
| OECD | 45.7 | 45.9 | 46.0 | 46.1 | 46.2 | 46.2 | 46.1 | 0.5 |
| China | 16.4 | 17.1 | 17.5 | 17.8 | 18.0 | 18.2 | 18.4 | 2.0 |
| India | 5.3 | 5.6 | 5.8 | 6.0 | 6.3 | 6.6 | 6.9 | 1.5 |
| Other Asia | 9.3 | 9.6 | 9.9 | 10.2 | 10.5 | 10.8 | 11.0 | 1.7 |
| Latin America | 6.7 | 6.9 | 7.1 | 7.3 | 7.5 | 7.7 | 7.8 | 1.2 |
| Middle East | 8.6 | 8.9 | 9.3 | 9.7 | 10.0 | 10.3 | 10.6 | 1.9 |
| Africa | 4.5 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 0.8 |
| Russia | 3.8 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 0.3 |
| Other Eurasia | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.2 |
| Other Europe | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.0 |
| Non-OECD | 56.6 | 58.6 | 60.3 | 61.9 | 63.4 | 64.8 | 66.2 | 9.6 |
| World | 102.2 | 104.5 | 106.3 | 108.0 | 109.6 | 111.0 | 112.3 | 10.1 |
| 2023 | 2030 | 2035 | 2040 | 2045 | 2050 | Growth 2023-2050 | |
| OECD Americas | 25.0 | 25.6 | 24.9 | 23.5 | 22.2 | 21.1 | -3.8 |
| OECD Europe | 13.4 | 13.1 | 12.1 | 11.0 | 10.0 | 9.2 | -4.2 |
| OECD Asia-Pacific | 7.2 | 7.2 | 6.7 | 6.1 | 5.7 | 5.2 | -2.0 |
| OECD | 45.7 | 45.9 | 43.7 | 40.6 | 37.9 | 35.6 | -10.1 |
| China | 16.4 | 18.6 | 19.0 | 19.2 | 19.1 | 18.9 | 2.5 |
| India | 5.3 | 7.1 | 8.6 | 10.2 | 11.8 | 13.3 | 8.0 |
| Other Asia | 9.3 | 11.2 | 12.3 | 13.1 | 13.8 | 14.5 | 5.2 |
| Latin America | 6.7 | 8.0 | 8.8 | 9.2 | 9.5 | 9.7 | 3.0 |
| Middle East | 8.6 | 10.7 | 11.5 | 12.1 | 12.6 | 13.0 | 4.4 |
| Africa | 4.5 | 5.4 | 6.2 | 7.0 | 7.9 | 8.9 | 4.4 |
| Russia | 3.8 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 0.2 |
| Other Eurasia | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 |
| Other Europe | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.7 | -0.1 |
| Non-OECD | 56.6 | 67.4 | 72.7 | 77.2 | 81.1 | 84.6 | 28.0 |
| World | 102.2 | 113.3 | 116.4 | 117.8 | 118.9 | 120.1 | 17.9 |
| 2023 | 2030 | 2035 | 2040 | 2045 | 2050 | Growth 2023-2050 | |
| Road | 45.6 | 49.2 | 49.8 | 50.0 | 50.2 | 50.2 | 4.6 |
| Aviation | 6.8 | 8.4 | 9.2 | 9.8 | 10.5 | 10.9 | 4.2 |
| Rail & Waterways | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 0.3 |
| Marine bunkers | 4.2 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 0.8 |
| Transportation | 58.5 | 64.7 | 66.3 | 67.2 | 68.0 | 68.5 | 10.0 |
| Petrochemicals | 14.8 | 17.3 | 18.0 | 18.7 | 19.3 | 19.7 | 4.9 |
| Other industry | 12.9 | 14.2 | 14.8 | 14.6 | 14.6 | 14.7 | 1.8 |
| Industry | 27.7 | 31.5 | 32.8 | 33.2 | 33.9 | 34.3 | 6.6 |
| Res./Comm./Agric. | 11.4 | 12.6 | 13.0 | 13.1 | 13.2 | 13.4 | 2.1 |
| Electricity generation | 4.6 | 4.6 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 3.8 | -0.8 |
| Other uses | 16.0 | 17.2 | 17.4 | 17.4 | 17.0 | 17.3 | 1.3 |
| World | 102.2 | 113.3 | 116.4 | 117.8 | 118.9 | 120.1 | 17.9 |
| 2023 | 2030 | 2035 | 2040 | 2045 | 2050 | Growth 2023-2050 | |
| OECD Americas | 285.5 | 298.9 | 310.9 | 319.2 | 322.4 | 322.7 | 37.2 |
| OECD Europe | 262.7 | 267.3 | 270.4 | 273.3 | 276.2 | 278.9 | 16.2 |
| OECD Asia-Pacific | 112.2 | 107.1 | 102.9 | 98.2 | 92.9 | 87.3 | -25.0 |
| OECD | 660.4 | 673.3 | 684.2 | 690.7 | 691.5 | 688.9 | 28.4 |
| China | 314.7 | 412.7 | 479.5 | 525.8 | 546.2 | 539.7 | 225.0 |
| India | 48.7 | 79.8 | 112.7 | 153.0 | 197.7 | 242.5 | 193.8 |
| Other Asia | 91.2 | 119.4 | 149.6 | 184.5 | 224.4 | 269.9 | 178.8 |
| Russia | 38.2 | 38.1 | 37.5 | 36.6 | 35.5 | 34.2 | -4.0 |
| Other non-OECD | 248.8 | 296.1 | 338.4 | 384.4 | 434.9 | 486.5 | 237.6 |
| Non-OECD | 741.6 | 946.0 | 1,117.7 | 1,284.3 | 1,438.6 | 1,572.8 | 831.2 |
| World | 1,402.0 | 1,619.3 | 1,801.9 | 1,975.0 | 2,130.1 | 2,261.7 | 859.7 |
| 2023 | 2030 | 2035 | 2040 | 2045 | 2050 | Growth 2023-2050 | |
| OECD Americas | 41.6 | 45.7 | 50.9 | 56.9 | 63.8 | 71.7 | 30.1 |
| OECD Europe | 45.1 | 51.4 | 57.5 | 63.7 | 70.0 | 76.4 | 31.3 |
| OECD Asia-Pacific | 25.6 | 26.5 | 27.5 | 28.4 | 29.5 | 30.7 | 5.1 |
| OECD | 112.2 | 123.7 | 135.9 | 149.0 | 163.2 | 178.8 | 66.5 |
| China | 32.6 | 43.5 | 53.6 | 64.1 | 73.9 | 83.3 | 50.8 |
| India | 21.9 | 33.1 | 44.3 | 59.0 | 75.7 | 94.1 | 72.1 |
| Other Asia | 31.8 | 42.5 | 52.1 | 62.0 | 71.8 | 81.3 | 49.5 |
| Russia | 5.8 | 6.0 | 6.1 | 6.3 | 6.4 | 6.5 | 0.6 |
| Other non-OECD | 68.1 | 86.2 | 105.0 | 128.7 | 156.4 | 188.3 | 120.2 |
| Non-OECD | 160.2 | 211.3 | 261.1 | 319.9 | 384.2 | 453.4 | 293.2 |
| World | 272.5 | 335.0 | 397.0 | 468.9 | 547.4 | 632.2 | 359.7 |
| 2023 | 2030 | 2035 | 2040 | 2045 | 2050 | Growth 2023-2050 | |
| OECD Americas | 5.6 | 29.5 | 58.7 | 91.0 | 122.5 | 141.6 | 136.0 |
| OECD Europe | 12.1 | 54.3 | 86.0 | 108.6 | 128.5 | 141.1 | 129.0 |
| OECD Asia-Pacific | 0.8 | 5.6 | 14.2 | 24.2 | 32.4 | 37.5 | 36.7 |
| OECD | 18.4 | 89.5 | 158.9 | 223.9 | 283.3 | 320.2 | 301.8 |
| China | 21.3 | 85.0 | 130.2 | 165.3 | 191.7 | 208.0 | 186.6 |
| India | 0.3 | 2.7 | 7.7 | 14.9 | 22.6 | 31.5 | 31.2 |
| Other Asia | 0.4 | 5.6 | 17.0 | 31.9 | 47.3 | 62.2 | 61.7 |
| Russia | 0.1 | 0.5 | 1.6 | 3.3 | 5.0 | 6.7 | 6.7 |
| Other non-OECD | 0.3 | 3.0 | 10.2 | 22.9 | 39.9 | 63.4 | 63.1 |
| Non-OECD | 22.4 | 96.8 | 166.8 | 238.4 | 306.5 | 371.8 | 349.4 |
| World | 40.9 | 186.3 | 325.7 | 462.2 | 589.8 | 692.0 | 651.2 |
| 2023 | 2030 | 2035 | 2040 | 2045 | 2050 | Growth 2023-2050 | |
| OECD Americas | 13.7 | 13.1 | 12.3 | 11.5 | 10.9 | 10.3 | -3.3 |
| OECD Europe | 6.3 | 5.8 | 5.1 | 4.4 | 3.7 | 3.2 | -3.1 |
| OECD Asia-Pacific | 2.5 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 1.2 | -1.3 |
| OECD | 22.4 | 21.2 | 19.4 | 17.6 | 16.0 | 14.7 | -7.7 |
| China | 6.7 | 7.8 | 8.0 | 7.8 | 7.6 | 7.3 | 0.6 |
| India | 2.2 | 3.2 | 4.1 | 5.0 | 5.9 | 6.7 | 4.5 |
| Other Asia | 3.6 | 4.5 | 5.0 | 5.4 | 5.7 | 5.9 | 2.3 |
| Latin America | 3.3 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 1.0 |
| Middle East | 3.2 | 3.9 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 1.7 |
| Africa | 2.1 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 3.6 | 4.1 | 2.0 |
| Russia | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.1 | -0.1 |
| Other Eurasia | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| Other Europe | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| Non-OECD | 23.2 | 28.0 | 30.4 | 32.4 | 34.2 | 35.5 | 12.3 |
| World | 45.6 | 49.2 | 49.8 | 50.0 | 50.2 | 50.2 | 4.6 |
| 2023 | 2030 | 2035 | 2040 | 2045 | 2050 | Growth 2023-2050 | |
| OECD Americas | 1.8 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 0.6 |
| OECD Europe | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.2 |
| OECD Asia-Pacific | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| OECD | 3.7 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 1.0 |
| China | 0.9 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| India | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 |
| Other Asia | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| Latin America | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| Middle East | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 |
| Africa | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 |
| Russia | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 |
| Other Eurasia | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Other Europe | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Non-OECD | 3.1 | 4.2 | 4.8 | 5.3 | 5.9 | 6.3 | 3.2 |
| World | 6.8 | 8.4 | 9.2 | 9.8 | 10.5 | 10.9 | 4.2 |
| 2023 | 2030 | 2035 | 2040 | 2045 | 2050 | Growth 2023-2050 | |
| OECD Americas | 3.7 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 0.2 |
| OECD Europe | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.4 | -0.4 |
| OECD Asia-Pacific | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 0.1 |
| OECD | 7.4 | 8.2 | 8.2 | 7.9 | 7.7 | 7.4 | 0.0 |
| China | 2.5 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 0.7 |
| India | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.9 |
| Other Asia | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 1.1 |
| Latin America | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| Middle East | 1.4 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 1.7 |
| Africa | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| Russia | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.1 |
| Other Eurasia | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Other Europe | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Non-OECD | 7.4 | 9.0 | 9.8 | 10.8 | 11.6 | 12.3 | 4.9 |
| World | 14.8 | 17.3 | 18.0 | 18.7 | 19.3 | 19.7 | 4.9 |
| 2023 | 2030 | 2035 | 2040 | 2045 | 2050 | Growth 2023-2050 | |
| OECD Americas | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 1.2 | -0.4 |
| OECD Europe | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.1 | -0.4 |
| OECD Asia-Pacific | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.4 | -0.3 |
| OECD | 3.9 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 2.7 | -1.2 |
| China | 2.7 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 0.4 |
| India | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1.0 |
| Other Asia | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.1 |
| Latin America | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| Middle East | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| Africa | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 |
| Russia | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| Other Eurasia | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| Other Europe | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Non-OECD | 7.5 | 8.5 | 9.1 | 9.6 | 10.2 | 10.7 | 3.2 |
| World | 11.4 | 12.6 | 13.0 | 13.1 | 13.2 | 13.4 | 2.1 |
| 2023 | 2030 | 2035 | 2040 | 2045 | 2050 | Growth 2023-2050 | |
| OECD Americas | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| OECD Europe | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.6 | -0.2 |
| OECD Asia-Pacific | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | -0.1 |
| OECD | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.1 | -0.4 |
| China | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| India | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Other Asia | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| Latin America | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| Middle East | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| Africa | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| Russia | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Other Eurasia | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Other Europe | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Non-OECD | 2.7 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 1.2 |
| World | 4.2 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 0.8 |
| 2023 | 2030 | 2035 | 2040 | 2045 | 2050 | Growth 2023-2050 | |
| OECD Americas | 2.8 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 2.4 | -0.4 |
| OECD Europe | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.2 | -0.1 |
| OECD Asia-Pacific | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | -0.2 |
| OECD | 5.0 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 4.3 | -0.7 |
| China | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 0.0 |
| India | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| Other Asia | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| Latin America | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| Middle East | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 |
| Africa | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| Russia | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.0 |
| Other Eurasia | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| Other Europe | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Non-OECD | 8.0 | 9.0 | 9.6 | 9.8 | 10.1 | 10.4 | 2.5 |
| World | 12.9 | 14.2 | 14.8 | 14.6 | 14.6 | 14.7 | 1.8 |
| 2023 | 2030 | 2035 | 2040 | 2045 | 2050 | Growth 2023-2050 | |
| OECD Americas | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | -0.2 |
| OECD Europe | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| OECD Asia-Pacific | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| OECD | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.5 | -0.2 |
| China | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| India | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Other Asia | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| Latin America | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| Middle East | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Africa | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Russia | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| Other Eurasia | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Other Europe | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Non-OECD | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| World | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 0.3 |
| 2023 | 2030 | 2035 | 2040 | 2045 | 2050 | Growth 2023-2050 | |
| OECD Americas | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | -0.3 |
| OECD Europe | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | -0.2 |
| OECD Asia-Pacific | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | -0.4 |
| OECD | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | -0.9 |
| China | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | -0.1 |
| India | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| Other Asia | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | -0.1 |
| Latin America | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| Middle East | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | -0.3 |
| Africa | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| Russia | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Other Eurasia | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Other Europe | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Non-OECD | 3.5 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 0.1 |
| World | 4.6 | 4.6 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 3.8 | -0.8 |
| 2023 | 2030 | 2035 | 2040 | 2045 | 2050 | Growth 2023-2050 | |
| Ethane/LPG | 13.4 | 15.7 | 16.4 | 16.9 | 17.2 | 17.5 | 4.2 |
| Naphtha | 6.6 | 7.8 | 8.2 | 8.7 | 9.1 | 9.4 | 2.8 |
| Gasoline | 27.1 | 29.2 | 29.5 | 29.6 | 29.6 | 29.6 | 2.5 |
| Light products | 47.0 | 52.7 | 54.1 | 55.1 | 55.9 | 56.6 | 9.6 |
| Jet/kero | 7.5 | 9.2 | 9.9 | 10.5 | 11.2 | 11.5 | 4.0 |
| Gasoil/diesel | 29.0 | 31.3 | 32.1 | 32.2 | 32.2 | 32.5 | 3.5 |
| Middle distillates | 36.5 | 40.6 | 42.0 | 42.7 | 43.4 | 44.1 | 7.5 |
| Residual fuel | 6.8 | 7.7 | 7.7 | 7.6 | 7.3 | 7.2 | 0.4 |
| Other products | 11.8 | 12.3 | 12.5 | 12.4 | 12.3 | 12.3 | 0.4 |
| Heavy products | 18.7 | 20.0 | 20.2 | 19.9 | 19.6 | 19.5 | 0.8 |
| World | 102.2 | 113.3 | 116.4 | 117.8 | 118.9 | 120.1 | 17.9 |