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2024
World Oil Outlook 2050
2024
World Oil Outlook 2050

Chapter 2 - Energy demand

Global primary energy demand to increase by 24% to 2050, driven by the non-OECD

Global primary energy demand is set to increase from 301 million barrels of oil equivalent a day (mboe/d) in 2023 to 374 mboe/d in 2050, an increase of 24% over the outlook period. Energy demand growth is driven by developing regions (non-OECD), which are projected to see an increase of 73.5 mboe/d. Around 30% of non-OECD growth comes from India alone. At the same time, primary energy demand in OECD countries drops slightly. The share of the non-OECD in global primary energy demand increases to 71.5% in 2050, up by 7 percentage points from 2023.

Demand for all energy sources increases, except coal; wind and solar grow at the fastest rate

In the Reference Case, with the exception of coal, demand for all primary fuels is set to increase over the outlook period. The largest increase is expected to come from other renewables (mainly wind and solar), with absolute growth of almost 43 mboe/d, expanding from 9.6 mboe/d in 2023 to 52.4 mboe/d in 2050. The second largest increase is anticipated from natural gas, rising by 20.5 mboe/d through 2050. Oil demand is expected to grow significantly, increasing by 16.7 mboe/d.

Increments in the period 2023–2050 are expected from nuclear energy (9.6 mboe/d) and biomass (8.2 mboe/d), as well as hydro (4 mboe/d). Due to stringent energy policies in most regions, coal demand is forecast to decline by almost 29 mboe/d between 2023 and 2050.

The share of oil and gas in the energy mix stays above 53% through 2050, with oil retaining the largest share at above 29%

Big shifts in the energy mix are seen throughout the outlook period, but oil and gas are set to remain crucial for energy supply in the period to 2050. Their combined share in the energy mix is expected to stay above 53% throughout the outlook period. Oil retains the largest share at 29.3% in 2050, with gas at 24%.

Source: OPEC

 

Source: OPEC

 

Source: OPEC

 

Source: OPEC

 

Data not available for this figure

 

​Source: OPEC

 

​Source: OPEC

 

Data not available for this figure

 

Source: IAEA

 

Source: OPEC

 

Source: OPEC

 

Source: OPEC

 

​Source: OPEC

 

Source: OPEC

 

Source: OPEC

 

Source: OPEC

 

Table 2.1

World primary energy demand by fuel type, 2023-2050
  Levels (mboe/d) Growth (mboe/d) Growth (% p.a.) Fuel share (%)
  2023 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2023-2050 2023-2050 2023 2050
Oil 92.9 103.1 106.0 107.4 108.5 109.6 16.7 0.6 30.9 29.3
Coal 78.0 71.6 66.1 60.0 54.4 49.1 -28.9 -1.7 25.9 13.1
Gas 69.1 75.9 80.6 84.8 87.9 89.6 20.5 1.0 23.0 24.0
Nuclear 14.8 17.0 18.9 20.9 22.7 24.3 9.6 1.9 4.9 6.5
Hydro 7.6 8.6 9.2 9.9 10.7 11.6 4.0 1.6 2.5 3.1
Biomass 29.1 32.1 34.0 35.5 36.5 37.4 8.2 0.9 9.7 10.0
Other renewables 9.6 19.0 27.1 35.1 43.6 52.4 42.9 6.5 3.2 14.0
Total 301.1 327.3 342.0 353.7 364.4 374.1 72.9 0.8 100.0 100.0

mboe/d, %

Source: OPEC

 

Table 2.2

Total primary energy demand by region, 2023-2050
  Levels (mboe/d) Growth (mboe/d) Growth (% p.a.) Share (%)
  2023 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2023-2050 2023-2050 2023 2050
OECD Americas 54.9 56.1 56.5 56.2 56.1 56.4 1.4 0.1 18.2 15.1
OECD Europe 34.5 34.0 33.5 32.9 32.3 32.0 -2.5 -0.3 11.4 8.6
OECD Asia-Pacific 17.7 17.9 18.0 18.1 18.1 18.2 0.5 0.1 5.9 4.9
OECD 107.1 108.1 108.1 107.2 106.6 106.6 -0.6 0.0 35.6 28.5
China 74.8 78.9 79.4 78.3 77.5 76.9 2.1 0.1 24.8 20.6
India 21.1 26.6 30.6 34.6 38.8 42.9 21.8 2.7 7.0 11.5
OPEC 21.3 26.8 30.0 32.8 35.0 36.5 15.3 2.0 7.1 9.8
Other DCs 52.6 62.1 68.7 75.3 80.4 84.4 31.8 1.8 17.5 22.6
Russia 16.5 16.4 16.1 15.9 15.8 15.8 -0.7 -0.2 5.5 4.2
Other Eurasia 7.7 8.4 9.0 9.6 10.3 11.0 3.3 1.3 2.6 2.9
Non-OECD 194.0 219.3 234.0 246.5 257.8 267.5 73.5 1.2 64.4 71.5
World 301.1 327.3 342.0 353.7 364.4 374.1 72.9 0.8 100.0 100.0

mboe/d, %

Source: OPEC

 

Table 2.3

OECD primary energy demand by fuel type, 2023-2050
  Levels (mboe/d) Growth (mboe/d) Growth (% p.a.) Fuel share (%)
  2023 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2023-2050 2023-2050 2023 2050
Oil 39.1 38.9 36.9 34.1 31.7 29.6 -9.6 -1.0 36.5 27.8
Coal 14.0 10.3 8.5 7.0 5.8 4.8 -9.2 -3.9 13.1 4.5
Gas 30.2 30.0 30.0 30.0 29.6 29.0 -1.2 -0.2 28.2 27.2
Nuclear 9.6 10.1 10.6 10.9 11.2 11.4 1.8 0.6 9.0 10.7
Hydro 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.0 0.5 0.7 2.3 2.8
Biomass 7.3 8.2 8.8 9.5 10.0 10.5 3.3 1.4 6.8 9.9
Other renewables 4.5 8.0 10.6 13.0 15.5 18.3 13.8 5.3 4.2 17.2
Total 107.1 108.1 108.1 107.2 106.6 106.6 -0.6 0.0 100.0 100.0

mboe/d, %

Source: OPEC

 

Table 2.4

Non-OECD primary energy demand by fuel type, 2023-2050
  Levels (mboe/d) Growth (mboe/d) Growth (% p.a.) Fuel share (%)
  2023 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2023-2050 2023-2050 2023 2050
Oil 53.8 64.2 69.1 73.3 76.9 80.0 26.3 1.5 27.7 29.9
Coal 64.0 61.4 57.7 53.0 48.6 44.3 -19.7 -1.4 33.0 16.6
Gas 39.0 46.0 50.6 54.9 58.4 60.7 21.7 1.7 20.1 22.7
Nuclear 5.1 6.9 8.3 10.0 11.5 12.9 7.8 3.5 2.7 4.8
Hydro 5.2 6.0 6.6 7.1 7.9 8.6 3.5 1.9 2.7 3.2
Biomass 21.9 24.0 25.1 26.1 26.5 26.8 5.0 0.8 11.3 10.0
Other renewables 5.0 10.9 16.5 22.1 28.1 34.1 29.0 7.3 2.6 12.7
Total 194.0 219.3 234.0 246.5 257.8 267.5 73.5 1.2 100.0 100.0

mboe/d, %

Source: OPEC

 

Table 2.5

China primary energy demand by fuel type, 2023-2050
  Levels (mboe/d) Growth (mboe/d) Growth (% p.a.) Fuel share (%)
  2023 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2023-2050 2023-2050 2023 2050
Coal 15.4 17.4 17.8 17.9 17.7 17.5 2.1 0.5 20.6 22.7
Coal 42.5 38.0 33.5 28.3 23.7 19.9 -22.5 -2.8 56.8 25.9
Gas 6.3 8.1 9.1 9.9 10.3 10.2 3.8 1.8 8.5 13.2
Nuclear 2.5 3.7 4.6 5.6 6.5 7.4 4.9 4.1 3.3 9.6
Hydro 2.3 2.6 2.7 2.8 3.0 3.2 0.9 1.2 3.1 4.1
Biomass 3.0 3.6 4.0 4.2 4.4 4.5 1.6 1.6 4.0 5.9
Other renewables 2.9 5.6 7.8 9.7 11.9 14.2 11.4 6.1 3.8 18.5
Total 74.8 78.9 79.4 78.3 77.5 76.9 2.1 0.1 100.0 100.0

mboe/d, %

Source: OPEC

 

Table 2.6

India primary energy demand by fuel type, 2023-2050
  Levels (mboe/d) Growth (mboe/d) Growth (% p.a.) Fuel share (%)
  2023 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2023-2050 2023-2050 2023 2050
Oil 5.3 7.1 8.6 10.1 11.6 13.2 7.8 3.4 25.2 30.7
Coal 9.4 11.3 12.4 12.9 13.1 12.8 3.4 1.1 44.8 29.9
Gas 1.2 1.8 2.2 3.0 3.9 4.9 3.8 5.5 5.6 11.5
Nuclear 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.2 6.2 1.4 3.4
Hydro 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.5 3.6 1.4 1.9
Biomass 4.2 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 0.2 0.2 19.7 10.2
Other renewables 0.4 1.2 1.8 2.7 3.9 5.3 4.9 9.9 2.0 12.4
Total 21.1 26.6 30.6 34.6 38.8 42.9 21.8 2.7 100.0 100.0

mboe/d, %

Source: OPEC

 

Table 2.7

Oil demand by region, 2023-2050
  Levels (mboe/d) Growth (mboe/d) Growth (% p.a.) Share (%)
  2023 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2023-2050 2023-2050 2023 2050
OECD Americas 20.6 20.8 20.2 19.0 17.9 16.9 -3.6 -0.7 22.1 15.5
OECD Europe 11.8 11.5 10.6 9.5 8.6 7.9 -3.9 -1.5 12.7 7.2
OECD Asia-Pacific 6.7 6.6 6.1 5.6 5.1 4.7 -2.0 -1.3 7.3 4.3
OECD 39.1 38.9 36.9 34.1 31.7 29.6 -9.6 -1.0 42.1 27.0
China 15.4 17.4 17.8 17.9 17.7 17.5 2.1 0.5 16.6 15.9
India 5.3 7.1 8.6 10.1 11.6 13.2 7.8 3.4 5.7 12.0
OPEC 8.8 11.2 11.9 12.5 12.9 13.2 4.3 1.5 9.5 12.0
Other DCs 18.8 22.5 24.8 26.8 28.6 30.3 11.5 1.8 20.2 27.6
Russia 3.6 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.7 0.1 0.1 3.9 3.4
Other Eurasia 1.9 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.2 0.3 0.6 2.0 2.0
Non-OECD 53.8 64.2 69.1 73.3 76.9 80.0 26.3 1.5 57.9 73.0
World 92.9 103.1 106.0 107.4 108.5 109.6 16.7 0.6 100.0 100.0

mboe/d, %

Source: OPEC

 

Table 2.8

Coal demand by region, 2023-2050
  Levels (mboe/d) Growth (mboe/d) Growth (% p.a.) Share (%)
  2023 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2023-2050 2023-2050 2023 2050
OECD Americas 5.2 3.9 3.1 2.3 1.7 1.2 -4.0 -5.2 6.7 2.5
OECD Europe 4.2 2.5 1.8 1.4 1.0 0.7 -3.4 -6.3 5.3 1.5
OECD Asia-Pacific 4.6 3.9 3.6 3.3 3.0 2.8 -1.8 -1.8 6.0 5.7
OECD 14.0 10.3 8.5 7.0 5.8 4.8 -9.2 -3.9 17.9 9.7
China 42.5 38.0 33.5 28.3 23.7 19.9 -22.5 -2.8 54.5 40.6
India 9.4 11.3 12.4 12.9 13.1 12.8 3.4 1.1 12.1 26.2
OPEC 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1
Other DCs 7.9 8.2 8.4 8.7 9.0 9.0 1.2 0.5 10.1 18.4
Russia 2.8 2.5 2.3 2.0 1.8 1.6 -1.2 -2.1 3.6 3.2
Other Eurasia 1.4 1.3 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.9 -0.5 -1.7 1.8 1.8
Non-OECD 64.0 61.4 57.7 53.0 48.6 44.3 -19.7 -1.4 82.1 90.3
World 78.0 71.6 66.1 60.0 54.4 49.1 -28.9 -1.7 100.0 100.0

mboe/d, %

Source: OPEC

 

Table 2.9

Natural gas demand by region, 2023-2050
  Levels (mboe/d) Growth (mboe/d) Growth (% p.a.) Share (%)
  2023 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2023-2050 2023-2050 2023 2050
OECD Americas 18.3 18.6 18.9 19.1 19.0 18.8 0.5 0.1 26.5 20.9
OECD Europe 8.2 7.7 7.4 7.1 6.8 6.4 -1.8 -0.9 11.9 7.2
OECD Asia-Pacific 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.7 0.1 0.1 5.3 4.2
OECD 30.2 30.0 30.0 30.0 29.6 29.0 -1.2 -0.2 43.6 32.3
China 6.3 8.1 9.1 9.9 10.3 10.2 3.8 1.8 9.2 11.4
India 1.2 1.8 2.2 3.0 3.9 4.9 3.8 5.5 1.7 5.5
OPEC 9.1 11.0 12.2 13.0 13.3 13.2 4.0 1.4 13.2 14.7
Other DCs 11.0 13.9 15.9 17.9 19.8 21.5 10.4 2.5 16.0 24.0
Russia 8.3 8.0 7.7 7.3 7.1 6.9 -1.4 -0.7 12.0 7.6
Other Eurasia 3.0 3.3 3.5 3.8 4.0 4.1 1.1 1.2 4.3 4.5
Non-OECD 39.0 46.0 50.6 54.9 58.4 60.7 21.7 1.7 56.4 67.7
World 69.1 75.9 80.6 84.8 87.9 89.6 20.5 1.0 100.0 100.0

mboe/d, %

Source: OPEC

 

Table 2.10

Nuclear demand by region, 2023-2050
  Levels (mboe/d) Growth (mboe/d) Growth (% p.a.) Share (%)
  2023 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2023-2050 2023-2050 2023 2050
OECD Americas 4.7 4.8 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.1 0.4 0.3 32.0 20.9
OECD Europe 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.9 0.2 0.2 24.5 15.9
OECD Asia-Pacific 1.3 1.7 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.5 1.2 2.5 8.6 10.2
OECD 9.6 10.1 10.6 10.9 11.2 11.4 1.8 0.6 65.1 47.0
China 2.5 3.7 4.6 5.6 6.5 7.4 4.9 4.1 16.8 30.2
India 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.2 6.2 1.9 6.0
OPEC 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 7.8 0.6 2.6
Other DCs 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.2 1.5 3.0 2.7
Russia 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 0.5 1.4 8.1 7.1
Other Eurasia 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.1 0.4 1.8 4.5 4.4
Non-OECD 5.1 6.9 8.3 10.0 11.5 12.9 7.8 3.5 34.9 53.0
World 14.8 17.0 18.9 20.9 22.7 24.3 9.6 1.9 100.0 100.0

mboe/d, %

Source: OPEC

 

Table 2.11

Hydro demand by region, 2023-2050
  Levels (mboe/d) Growth (mboe/d) Growth (% p.a.) Share (%)
  2023 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2023-2050 2023-2050 2023 2050
OECD Americas 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.7 0.4 0.9 17.9 14.8
OECD Europe 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.1 0.5 11.3 8.5
OECD Asia-Pacific 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.6 3.0 2.3
OECD 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.0 0.5 0.7 32.2 25.6
China 2.3 2.6 2.7 2.8 3.0 3.2 0.9 1.2 30.3 27.5
India 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.5 3.6 4.0 6.8
OPEC 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 2.0 2.4 2.7
Other DCs 1.8 2.2 2.5 2.8 3.2 3.5 1.7 2.5 23.2 30.0
Russia 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.1 1.1 4.9 4.4
Other Eurasia 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 1.5 3.0 2.9
Non-OECD 5.2 6.0 6.6 7.1 7.9 8.6 3.5 1.9 67.8 74.4
World 7.6 8.6 9.2 9.9 10.7 11.6 4.0 1.6 100.0 100.0

mboe/d, %

Source: OPEC

 

Table 2.12

Biomass demand by region, 2023-2050
  Levels (mboe/d) Growth (mboe/d) Growth (% p.a.) Share (%)
  2023 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2023-2050 2023-2050 2023 2050
OECD Americas 3.0 3.2 3.4 3.6 3.9 4.1 1.2 1.2 10.2 11.1
OECD Europe 3.7 4.3 4.7 5.0 5.3 5.5 1.9 1.5 12.6 14.8
OECD Asia-Pacific 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.3 1.3 2.1 2.3
OECD 7.3 8.2 8.8 9.5 10.0 10.5 3.3 1.4 24.9 28.2
China 3.0 3.6 4.0 4.2 4.4 4.5 1.6 1.6 10.2 12.2
India 4.2 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 0.2 0.2 14.3 11.7
OPEC 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.0 0.2 0.3 9.6 8.1
Other DCs 11.2 12.2 12.8 13.3 13.4 13.5 2.3 0.7 38.5 36.3
Russia 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.3 3.2 0.8 1.4
Other Eurasia 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.3 1.7 1.7 2.1
Non-OECD 21.9 24.0 25.1 26.1 26.5 26.8 5.0 0.8 75.1 71.8
World 29.1 32.1 34.0 35.5 36.5 37.4 8.2 0.9 100.0 100.0

mboe/d, %

Source: OPEC

 

Table 2.13

'Other renewables' demand by region, 2023-2050
  Levels (mboe/d) Growth (mboe/d) Growth (% p.a.) Share (%)
  2023 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2023-2050 2023-2050 2023 2050
OECD Americas 1.8 3.3 4.5 5.6 7.0 8.5 6.7 6.0 18.6 16.1
OECD Europe 2.1 3.5 4.4 5.2 5.8 6.6 4.4 4.3 22.3 12.5
OECD Asia-Pacific 0.6 1.2 1.7 2.2 2.7 3.3 2.7 6.5 6.4 6.3
OECD 4.5 8.0 10.6 13.0 15.5 18.3 13.8 5.3 47.2 35.0
China 2.9 5.6 7.8 9.7 11.9 14.2 11.4 6.1 29.9 27.2
India 0.4 1.2 1.8 2.7 3.9 5.3 4.9 9.9 4.3 10.1
OPEC 0.2 1.2 2.4 3.6 4.9 6.2 6.0 14.3 1.7 11.8
Other DCs 1.5 2.7 3.9 5.1 5.8 5.9 4.3 5.1 15.9 11.2
Russia 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.8 14.9 0.2 1.6
Other Eurasia 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.7 1.6 12.1 0.8 3.2
Non-OECD 5.0 10.9 16.5 22.1 28.1 34.1 29.0 7.3 52.8 65.0
World 9.6 19.0 27.1 35.1 43.6 52.4 42.9 6.5 100.0 100.0

mboe/d, %

Source: OPEC