Outlook extended to 2050, further underscoring the challenges of energy security and reducing emissions

This year’s World Oil Outlook (WOO) extends its perspective through to 2050, shedding further light on pivotal global trends and shifts. This includes looking at what each energy can offer in terms of delivering energy security, energy availability and reducing emissions, with an emphasis on the need for just and inclusive future energy pathways for all. The outlook examines economic, demographic, policy and technological developments to provide a balanced and realistic outlook based on real world data.

Global population growth, urbanization trends, drive energy demand requirements

The outlook is underscored by a robust increase in the world’s population, with projections indicating a rise to 9.7 billion by 2050 from a level of just over eight billion today. This growth is predominantly driven by a substantial demographic surge in non-OECD regions. Urbanization trends are set to intensify, with an estimated two- thirds of the population, translating to over 6.6 billion people, expected to inhabit urban centres by the end of the forecast period. The global workforce, comprised of individuals between 15 and 64 years, is on course to exceed six billion by2050, effectively integrating nearly 870 million new entrants into the labour market.

Average global economic growth of 2.9% p.a. through 2050

Global GDP is set to grow robustly, with an average annual increase of 2.9% per annum (p.a.) between 2023 and 2050. Non-OECD countries are set to lead this growth, expanding at an annual rate of 3.7%, while OECD nations experience more modest annual growth at 1.6%. As a result, in absolute terms the global economy is expected to more than double in size from $165 trillion in 2023 to $358 trillion in 2050.

Energy policy ambitions remain high, but pushback on overly ambitious targets

COP28 in OPEC Member Country, the UAE, marked a significant milestone as it conducted the first global stocktake (GST) under the Paris Agreement. The importance of national contributions to emissions reduction was underscored, however, the GST also acknowledged the potential for disruptions due to various uncertainties. While energy policy ambitions remain high, the outlook expects greater scrutiny and pushback on some overly ambitious policy targets, both from policymakers and populations. It is evident that energy security continues to be a paramount concern.

Technology will continue to significantly impact energy demand and supply

The WOO recognizes incremental technological advancements that help to improve efficiency and reduce costs, but does not assume sudden technology breakthroughs. Internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles are expected to continue to dominate road transportation. Electric vehicles (EVs) are poised for a larger market share, but obstacles remain, such as electricity grids, battery manufacturing capacity and access to critical minerals. Elsewhere in transportation, the aviation sector is grappling with decarbonization challenges, while maritime shipping is embracing alternative fuels. A significant expansion of carbon abatement capacity, mainly carbon capture utilization & storage (CCUS), is expected.