The Outlook considers two alternative scenarios relative to the Reference Case

An ‘Advanced Technology’ Scenario illustrates a technology-driven means of limiting the global temperature increase to well below 2°C. This includes a much greater diffusion of carbon capture utilization & storage (CCUS), carbon capture and storage(CCS) and direct air capture (DAC) technologies in industrial sectors, stronger investment in hydrogen supply networks, and the increasing adoption of a circular carbon economy (CCE) framework across the global economy. Primary energy demand in this scenario will be almost 55 mboe/d lower by 2045 compared to the Reference Case. Oil demand, after stabilizing at over 100 mb/d until around2035, will then drop slightly towards 98 mb/d by 2045, which is 18 mb/d lower than in the Reference Case.

The ‘Laissez-Faire’ Scenario, which is a more optimistic and more equitable outlook for developing economies, assumes a faster return to higher economic growth during the medium-term and maintains this stronger growth in the long-term, especially for developing countries.Policies will tighten in the future, contributing to improved efficiencies and supporting the further expansion of renewables; however, in an isolated manner given the absence of a coordinated move to reduce future emissions. Moreover,protectionism and unilateralism will play a more important role in prioritizing local development needs over global issues. In this scenario, both primary energy demand and oil demand will be consistently higher than the Reference Case. Oil demand surpasses 113 mb/d by 2030 and continues growing to 122 mb/din 2045. Compared to the Reference Case, this represents a difference of more than 1 mb/d by 2030, which then expands to 6.3 mb/d in 2045.