Long-term crude and condensate trade flows rise to above 45 mb/d by 2045
Driven by strong demand growth, global interregional crude and condensate trade is expected to reach levels above 39.3 mb/d in 2025, up by more than 3 mb/d relative to 2022levels. After 2025, total crude and condensate flows are set to increase gradually to 45.3 mb/d by 2045, driven by rising oil demand and declining supply in importing regions. Major contributors to the export growth are the Middle East, Latin America and the US & Canada.
Asia-Pacific remains by far the largest destination for crude exports
The Asia-Pacific remains by far the main destination for global crude and condensate exports. Total imports increase gradually from 23 mb/d in 2022 to 32.6 mb/d in 2045. This translates into its share of the global interregional trade rising from around64% in 2022 to almost 72% in 2045.
Source: OPEC
Source: OPEC
* Excludes biofuels, synthetic fuels, CTLs, GTLs, and NGLs.
Source: OPEC
Source: OPEC
* Only trade between major regions is considered, intratrade is excluded.
