Around 6.6 mb/d of refining capacity additions are projected between 2022 and 2028. Most of this new capacity will be in the Asia-Pacific (3.1 mb/d), Middle East (1.6 mb/d) and Africa (1.2 mb/d). Additions in other regions are minor and mostly limited to the expansion of existing refineries.
In the long-term (2023–2045), global refining capacity additions are set at 19.2 mb/d (including capacity creep). Similar to oil demand growth, additions are front-loaded, with a slowdown in the rate towards 2045. Around 85% of long-term additions are expected in the Asia-Pacific, Middle East and Africa. This continued trend of refining capacity migration from developed to developing countries mirrors the shifts in regional demand.
Source: OPEC
Source: OPEC
Source: OPEC
Source: OPEC
Source: OPEC
Source: OPEC
Source: OPEC
* Potential: based on expected distillation capacity expansion; assuming no closures.
** Required: based on projected demand increases assuming no change in refined products trade pattern.
Source: OPEC
Source: OPEC
Source: OPEC
Source: OPEC
Source: OPEC
Source: OPEC
Source: OPEC
Source: OPEC
Source: OPEC
Source: OPEC
Source: OPEC
* Effective ‘spare’ capacity estimate based on assumed 84% utilization rate, accounting for already-closed capacity.
Source: OPEC
Source: OPEC
Source: OPEC
Source: OPEC
Source: OPEC
* Projects and additions exclude naphtha desulphurization.
Source: OPEC
* Projects and additions exclude naphtha desulphurization.
Source: OPEC
Source: OPEC
* Declining product demand in some regions contributes to the surplus
Source: OPEC
| US & Canada | Latin America | Africa | Europe | Russia & Caspian | Middle East | China | Other Asia-Pacific | World | |
| Distillation | |||||||||
| Crude oil (atmospheric) | 19.4 | 7.8 | 3.8 | 14.9 | 7.8 | 10.7 | 17.6 | 19.0 | 101.0 |
| Vacuum | 8.8 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 7.3 | 5.9 | 38.9 |
| Upgrading | |||||||||
| Coking | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.1 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 9.0 |
| Catalytic Cracking | 5.7 | 1.6 | 0.2 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 4.3 | 3.5 | 19.5 |
| HydroCracking | 2.4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 11.2 |
| Visbreaking | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 4.0 |
| Solvent Deasphalting | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 1.2 |
| Octane units | |||||||||
| Reforming | 3.7 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 14.8 |
| Isomerization | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 3.0 |
| Alkylation | 1.3 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 2.5 |
| Polymerization | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
| MTBE/ETBE | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.6 |
| Desulphurization | |||||||||
| Naphtha | 4.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 3.1 | 17.6 |
| Gasoline | 2.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 7.8 |
| Middle distillates | 6.5 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 3.2 | 4.8 | 6.9 | 32.9 |
| Heavy oil/Residual fuel | 3.1 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 3.2 | 10.8 |
| Sulphur (short tons/day) | 42,428 | 7,282 | 3,589 | 20,091 | 8,537 | 14,666 | 23,296 | 39,442 | 159,332 |
| Hydrogen (million scf/d) | 6,389 | 1,251 | 354 | 5,047 | 2,182 | 3,373 | 6,875 | 6,405 | 31,876 |
| US & Canada | Latin America | Africa | Europe | Russia & Caspian | Middle East | China | Other Asia-Pacific | World | |
| 2023 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 2.1 |
| 2024 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 1.1 |
| 2025 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 1.0 |
| 2026 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 1.0 |
| 2027 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 0.9 |
| 2028 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| 2023 - 2028 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 1.2 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 6.6 |
| Share | 4.7% | 4.9% | 17.4% | 0.3% | 1.8% | 24.6% | 18.1% | 28.1% | 100.0% |
| Distillation capacity additions starting 2023 | ||||
| Assessed projects* | New Units | Total | Annualized | |
| 2023 - 2025 | 4.2 | 0.2 | 4.3 | 1.4 |
| 2025 - 2030 | 2.5 | 3.3 | 5.8 | 1.2 |
| 2030 - 2035 | 0.0 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 0.9 |
| 2035 - 2040 | 0.0 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 0.6 |
| 2040 - 2045 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 |
| Cumulative distillation capacity additions | ||||
| Assessed projects* | New Units | Total | Annualized | |
| 2023 - 2025 | 4.2 | 0.2 | 4.3 | 1.4 |
| 2023 - 2030 | 6.6 | 3.5 | 10.1 | 1.3 |
| 2023 - 2035 | 6.6 | 7.8 | 14.5 | 1.1 |
| 2023 - 2040 | 6.6 | 11.0 | 17.6 | 1.0 |
| 2023 - 2045 | 6.6 | 12.5 | 19.2 | 0.8 |
| Total crude unit throughputs (mb/d) | |||||||||
| US & Canada | Latin America | Africa | Europe | Russia & Caspian | Middle East | China | Other Asia-Pacific | Global | |
| 2022 | 17.7 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 11.9 | 6.6 | 7.8 | 13.5 | 16.5 | 80.3 |
| 2025 | 17.7 | 5.3 | 2.8 | 11.9 | 6.3 | 9.0 | 15.6 | 17.2 | 85.7 |
| 2030 | 18.1 | 5.5 | 3.7 | 11.6 | 6.4 | 9.5 | 16.3 | 18.5 | 89.6 |
| 2035 | 17.9 | 5.9 | 4.2 | 11.2 | 6.1 | 9.9 | 16.5 | 19.5 | 91.1 |
| 2040 | 17.8 | 6.3 | 4.8 | 9.8 | 6.0 | 10.0 | 16.4 | 20.4 | 91.5 |
| 2045 | 17.3 | 6.5 | 5.0 | 9.5 | 6.0 | 10.1 | 16.4 | 21.1 | 91.9 |
| Crude unit utilizations (% of calendar day capacity) | |||||||||
| US & Canada | Latin America | Africa | Europe | Russia & Caspian | Middle East | China | Other Asia-Pacific | Global | |
| 2022 | 91.1 | 57.0 | 50.8 | 80.0 | 84.5 | 72.9 | 76.5 | 86.6 | 79.5 |
| 2025 | 89.9 | 65.7 | 63.3 | 80.9 | 79.9 | 75.9 | 84.3 | 88.3 | 82.0 |
| 2030 | 89.6 | 67.8 | 72.0 | 81.4 | 79.8 | 76.7 | 83.0 | 85.0 | 81.8 |
| 2035 | 86.6 | 71.2 | 70.1 | 78.7 | 75.4 | 78.1 | 80.1 | 82.8 | 80.0 |
| 2040 | 85.1 | 75.0 | 71.2 | 69.2 | 73.7 | 78.5 | 77.7 | 81.9 | 78.1 |
| 2045 | 82.1 | 77.4 | 73.4 | 67.1 | 74.2 | 78.3 | 77.1 | 81.4 | 77.5 |
| Total 2020-2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | Total 2023-2028 | |
| US & Canada | 1.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.4 |
| Latin America | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Europe | 1.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.6 |
| Russia & Caspian | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Africa | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Middle East | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Asia-Pacific | 1.6 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 |
| Total | 4.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.2 |
| By year | |||
| Conversion | Desulphurization* | Octane units | |
| 2023 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2024 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2025 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2026 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2027 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2028 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| By region | |||
| Conversion | Desulphurization* | Octane units | |
| US & Canada | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.0 |
| Latin America | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| Africa | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| Europe | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Russia & Caspian | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| Middle East | 0.6 | 1.9 | 0.4 |
| China | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| Other Asia | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| World | 4.5 | 5.8 | 1.7 |
| Existing projects | Additional requirements | Total additions | ||
| to 2028* | 2028-2035 | 2035-2045 | to 2045 | |
| Crude distillation | 6.6 | 7.8 | 4.7 | 19.2 |
| Conversion | 4.5 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 10.7 |
| Coking/Visbreaking | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 2.7 |
| Catalytic cracking | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 3.3 |
| Hydro-cracking | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 4.7 |
| Desulphurization** | 4.3 | 9.6 | 5.6 | 19.5 |
| Gasoline | 0.7 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 4.3 |
| Distillate | 2.8 | 6.6 | 4.0 | 13.4 |
| VGO/Resid | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 1.8 |
| Octane units*** | 1.67 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 6.1 |
| Catalytic reforming | 1.17 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 3.7 |
| Alkylation | 0.16 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 1.7 |
| Isomerization | 0.30 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.5 |
| MTBE | 0.04 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
| Gasoline / Naphtha | Middle distillates | Fuel oil | Other products | Total | |
| 2023 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 2.0 |
| 2024 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 2.9 |
| 2025 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 0.0 | 1.2 | 3.9 |
| 2026 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 4.9 |
| 2027 | 1.7 | 2.5 | -0.1 | 1.7 | 5.8 |
| 2028 | 1.9 | 2.8 | -0.1 | 1.9 | 6.5 |
| Share | 29% | 43% | -1% | 29% | 100% |