Non-OPEC liquids supply is expected to grow from 65.8 mb/d in 2022 to 72.7 mb/d in 2028, or by almost 7 mb/d. Incremental supply in the US makes up nearly half of this, at3.4 mb/d, with other major drivers being Brazil, Guyana, Canada, Qatar and Norway. With US liquids supply set to peak around the end of the current decade, overall non-OPEC production starts declining from the early 2030s,eventually falling to 69.9 mb/d by 2045. Guyana, Canada, Argentina, Brazil and Kazakhstan are some of the few non-OPEC producers set to expand beyond the medium-term, but non-crude liquids including biofuels and other unconventionals will also keep increasing.
OPEC liquids will rise steadily in the medium-term from 34.2 mb/d in 2022 to 37.7mb/d, and further to 46.1 mb/d by 2045. Thus, OPEC’s share of global liquids supply will increase from 34% in 2022 to 40% in 2045.
Investment requirements for the overall oil sector, between 2022 and 2045, are estimated at a cumulative $14 trillion (in 2023 $US), or around $610 billion p.a. on average. Of this, $11.1 trillion is expected to be required in the upstream sector, or an average of $480 billion p.a. Downstream and midstream requirements are estimated at $1.7 and $1.2 trillion, respectively. If these investments do not materialize, it represents a considerable challenge and risk to market stability and energy security.
Source: OPEC
Source: OPEC
Source: OPEC
Source: OPEC
Source: OPEC
Source: OPEC
Source: OPEC
Source: OPEC
Source: OPEC
Source: OPEC
Source: OPEC
Source: OPEC
Source: OPEC
Source: OPEC
* Africa other includes Cameroon, Senegal, Tunisia, Uganda and smaller producers, but excludes African OPEC producers
Source: OPEC
Source: OPEC
Source: OPEC
Source: OPEC
Source: OPEC
Source: OPEC
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
Source: OPEC
Source: OPEC
Source: OPEC
Source: OPEC
| 2022 | 2025 | 2030 | 2035 | 2040 | 2045 | Change 2022-2045 | |
| US | 19.2 | 21.7 | 22.4 | 21.0 | 19.7 | 18.3 | -0.9 |
| of which: tight oil | 12.7 | 15.4 | 16.7 | 16.0 | 15.2 | 14.1 | 1.4 |
| Canada | 5.6 | 6.0 | 6.1 | 6.2 | 6.5 | 6.9 | 1.3 |
| of which: oil sands | 3.2 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 4.1 | 4.5 | 1.4 |
| Mexico & Chile | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.6 | -0.5 |
| OECD Americas | 26.9 | 29.7 | 30.3 | 29.0 | 27.9 | 26.8 | 0.0 |
| OECD Europe | 3.6 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 0.3 |
| OECD Asia Pacific | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 |
| OECD | 30.9 | 34.1 | 34.8 | 33.4 | 32.3 | 31.1 | 0.2 |
| Latin America | 6.3 | 7.4 | 8.9 | 9.6 | 9.9 | 9.8 | 3.4 |
| Middle East | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 0.5 |
| Africa | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.3 |
| China | 4.5 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.3 | -0.1 |
| India | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.0 |
| Other Asia | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.9 | -0.4 |
| Russia | 11.0 | 10.2 | 10.3 | 10.7 | 10.7 | 10.5 | -0.6 |
| Other Eurasia | 2.9 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 0.1 |
| Non-OECD | 32.4 | 33.2 | 35.7 | 36.5 | 36.4 | 35.6 | 3.2 |
| Processing gains | 2.4 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 0.8 |
| Non-OPEC | 65.8 | 69.8 | 73.3 | 72.9 | 71.7 | 69.9 | 4.2 |
| Crude | 43.9 | 46.1 | 47.4 | 45.9 | 43.8 | 41.4 | -2.5 |
| of which: tight crude | 8.9 | 10.9 | 11.7 | 11.3 | 10.6 | 9.8 | 0.9 |
| NGLs | 12.5 | 13.6 | 15.0 | 15.1 | 15.1 | 14.8 | 2.3 |
| of which: unconventional NGLs | 5.4 | 6.4 | 7.2 | 7.2 | 7.2 | 7.1 | 1.7 |
| Global biofuels | 2.8 | 3.1 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 4.5 | 4.7 | 1.9 |
| of which: fuel ethanol | 1.8 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 0.9 |
| of which: biodiesel | 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.0 |
| Other liquids | 4.1 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 4.9 | 5.3 | 5.9 | 1.8 |
| of which: GTLs | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 |
| of which: CTLs | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| of which: others incl. Canadian oil sands | 3.6 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 4.3 | 4.6 | 5.2 | 1.6 |
| Total OPEC liquids | 34.2 | 36.5 | 38.9 | 41.6 | 43.7 | 46.1 | 11.9 |
| World | 100.0 | 106.3 | 112.2 | 114.4 | 115.4 | 116.0 | 16.0 |
| 2022 | 2025 | 2030 | 2035 | 2040 | 2045 | Change 2022-2045 | |
| US tight oil | 12.7 | 15.4 | 16.7 | 16.0 | 15.2 | 14.1 | 1.4 |
| of which: tight crude | 7.9 | 9.7 | 10.2 | 9.6 | 8.8 | 7.8 | -0.1 |
| of which: unconventional NGLs | 4.7 | 5.7 | 6.5 | 6.4 | 6.4 | 6.2 | 1.5 |
| US Gulf of Mexico crude | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.2 | -0.5 |
| US Alaska crude | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | -0.3 |
| US other crude | 1.8 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.3 | -1.5 |
| US other NGLs | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | -0.2 |
| US biofuels | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 |
| US other liquids | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| Memo item: US total crude | 11.9 | 13.5 | 13.4 | 12.0 | 10.7 | 9.5 | -2.4 |
| Memo item: US total NGLs | 5.9 | 6.7 | 7.4 | 7.3 | 7.3 | 7.1 | 1.2 |
| Total US liquids production | 19.2 | 21.7 | 22.4 | 21.0 | 19.7 | 18.3 | -0.9 |
| 2022 | 2025 | 2030 | 2035 | 2040 | 2045 | Change 2022-2045 | |
| Fuel ethanol | 1.8 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 0.9 |
| Biodiesel | 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.0 |
| Global biofuels | 2.8 | 3.1 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 4.5 | 4.7 | 1.9 |
| Canadian oil sands | 3.2 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 4.1 | 4.5 | 1.4 |
| Gas-to-liquids (GTL) | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 |
| Coal-to-liquids (CTL) | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| Synthetic aviation fuel | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Other* | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | -0.1 |
| Total 'Other liquids' | 4.1 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 4.9 | 5.3 | 5.9 | 1.8 |
| Non-OPEC total | 7.0 | 7.6 | 8.2 | 8.9 | 9.8 | 10.6 | 3.7 |