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2023
World Oil Outlook 2045
2023
World Oil Outlook 2045

Chapter 3 - Oil demand

Oil demand shows strong medium-term growth; long-term oil demand rises to 116 mb/d by 2045

Global oil demand is set to reach a level of 110.2 million barrels a day (mb/d) in2028, representing an increase of 10.6 mb/d compared to 2022. Non-OECD oil demand is expected to increase by a robust 10.1 mb/d, reaching a level of 63.7mb/d by 2028. OECD demand will also increase by 0.5 mb/d over the medium-term. In the long-term, global oil demand is expected to increase by more than 16 mb/d between 2022 and 2045, rising from 99.6 mb/d in 2022 to 116 mb/d in 2045.Non-OECD oil demand is expected to increase by almost 26 mb/d between 2022 and2045. In contrast, OECD oil demand is set to contract by around 9.3 mb/d.

India leads in driving oil demand growth

The largest contributions to the non-OECD oil demand increase are set to come from India, Other Asia, China, Africa and the Middle East. India will add 6.6 mb/d to oil demand over the forecast period. Other Asia’s oil demand is set to increase by 4.6mb/d, China’s by 4 mb/d, Africa’s by 3.8 mb/d and the Middle East’s by 3.6mb/d.

Road transport, petrochemicals and aviation are key to oil demand growth

The largest incremental demand over the forecast period is projected for the road transportation, petrochemical and aviation sectors. Oil demand in these sectors is set to increase by 4.6 mb/d, 4.3 mb/d and 4.1 mb/d, respectively. With respect to refined products, major long-term demand growth is expected for jet/kerosene (4 mb/d) followed by ethane/liquefied petroleum gas (3.6 mb/d), diesel/gas oil(3.1 mb/d), naphtha (2.5 mb/d) and gasoline (2.5 mb/d).

Source: OPEC

 

Source: OPEC

 

Source: OPEC

 

Source OPEC

 

Source: OPEC

 

Source OPEC

 

Source: OPEC

 

Source: OPEC

 

Source OPEC

 

Source: OPEC

 

Source: OPEC

 

Source: OPEC

 

Source: OPEC

 

​Source: OPEC

 

​Source: OPEC

 

​Source: OPEC

 

Source: OPEC

 

Source: OPEC

 

Souce OPEC

 

Source OPEC

 

Source: OPEC

 

Source: OPEC

 

Table 3.1

Medium-term oil demand in the Reference Case
  2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 Growth 2022-2028
OECD Americas 25.0 25.1 25.3 25.5 25.6 25.7 25.8 0.8
OECD Europe 13.5 13.4 13.5 13.5 13.5 13.5 13.4 -0.1
OECD Asia-Pacific 7.4 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.4 7.3 -0.1
OECD 45.9 46.0 46.3 46.5 46.6 46.6 46.5 0.5
China 14.9 15.8 16.4 16.8 17.1 17.3 17.5 2.7
India 5.1 5.4 5.6 5.9 6.2 6.5 6.8 1.6
Other Asia 9.0 9.3 9.6 9.9 10.2 10.4 10.6 1.6
Latin America 6.4 6.6 6.8 6.9 7.1 7.3 7.4 1.0
Middle East 8.3 8.7 9.1 9.4 9.5 9.7 9.8 1.5
Africa 4.4 4.6 4.7 4.9 5.1 5.3 5.5 1.1
Russia 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.9 3.9 0.4
Other Eurasia 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 0.1
Other Europe 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.1
Non-OECD 53.6 56.0 58.0 59.6 61.1 62.5 63.7 10.1
World 99.6 102.0 104.3 106.1 107.7 109.0 110.2 10.6

mb/d

Source: OPEC

 

Table 3.2

Long-term oil demand by region
  2022 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 Growth 2022-2045
OECD Americas 25.0 25.5 25.8 24.8 23.2 21.5 -3.5
OECD Europe 13.5 13.5 13.1 12.0 10.8 9.8 -3.7
OECD Asia-Pacific 7.4 7.5 7.2 6.6 6.0 5.4 -2.0
OECD 45.9 46.5 46.0 43.4 40.0 36.7 -9.3
China 14.9 16.8 17.8 18.2 18.5 18.8 4.0
India 5.1 5.9 7.3 8.8 10.2 11.7 6.6
Other Asia 9.0 9.9 11.1 12.1 12.9 13.6 4.6
Latin America 6.4 6.9 7.8 8.4 8.7 9.0 2.5
Middle East 8.3 9.4 10.0 10.7 11.4 11.9 3.6
Africa 4.4 4.9 5.9 6.6 7.4 8.2 3.8
Russia 3.6 3.8 4.0 4.0 3.9 3.9 0.3
Other Eurasia 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.5 0.3
Other Europe 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.0
Non-OECD 53.6 59.6 66.0 71.0 75.4 79.4 25.7
World 99.6 106.1 112.0 114.4 115.4 116.0 16.4

mb/d

Source: OPEC

 

Table 3.3

Sectoral oil demand, 2022-2045
  2022 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 Growth 2022-2045
Road 44.5 47.0 48.8 49.1 49.1 49.1 4.6
Aviation 6.1 7.6 8.4 9.0 9.6 10.2 4.1
Rail & Waterways 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.2 0.3
Marine bunkers 4.1 4.4 4.8 4.9 4.9 4.9 0.8
Transportation 56.6 61.1 64.1 65.2 65.9 66.4 9.8
Petrochemicals 14.3 15.6 17.0 17.6 18.2 18.6 4.3
Other industry 12.8 13.2 14.0 14.5 14.3 14.2 1.5
Industry 27.1 28.8 31.0 32.1 32.4 32.9 5.8
Res./Comm./Agric. 11.2 11.5 12.5 12.8 12.9 12.8 1.6
Electricity generation 4.7 4.7 4.5 4.3 4.2 4.0 -0.8
Other uses 15.9 16.2 16.9 17.1 17.1 16.7 0.9
World 99.6 106.1 112.0 114.4 115.4 116.0 16.4

mb/d

Source: OPEC

 

Table 3.4

Number of passenger cars, 2022-2045
  2022 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 Growth 2022-2045
OECD Americas 282.2 286.3 295.7 307.2 314.9 317.4 35.2
OECD Europe 259.4 261.9 264.7 267.2 269.4 271.2 11.8
OECD Asia-Pacific 112.0 111.0 106.9 101.7 95.4 88.5 -23.5
OECD 653.5 659.2 667.3 676.1 679.6 677.1 23.5
China 301.3 341.3 411.5 477.4 523.0 541.6 240.3
India 45.7 56.2 80.0 112.9 153.0 197.3 151.7
Other Asia 88.1 95.8 117.9 147.6 181.7 219.9 131.8
Russia 38.0 37.9 37.7 37.1 36.1 35.0 -3.0
Other non-OECD 242.2 259.7 294.9 336.5 381.7 431.9 189.7
Non-OECD 715.2 790.9 942.1 1,111.5 1,275.5 1,425.7 710.5
World 1,368.8 1,450.0 1,609.4 1,787.5 1,955.2 2,102.8 734.0

millions

Source: OPEC

 

Table 3.5

Number of commercial vehicles, 2022-2045
  2022 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 Growth 2022-2045
OECD Americas 41.1 41.7 46.1 52.0 57.7 63.2 22.1
OECD Europe 45.2 46.5 51.7 57.8 63.9 69.7 24.5
OECD Asia-Pacific 25.6 25.6 26.2 26.8 27.5 28.2 2.6
OECD 111.9 113.7 124.0 136.6 149.1 161.2 49.2
China 30.9 34.5 42.7 52.5 62.7 72.1 41.2
India 20.1 23.6 31.9 42.7 57.0 73.0 52.9
Other Asia 31.0 33.8 42.5 51.9 61.6 71.2 40.2
Russia 6.0 6.1 6.0 6.0 6.1 6.2 0.2
Other non-OECD 66.7 72.1 86.2 104.5 127.9 154.2 87.5
Non-OECD 154.7 170.2 209.3 257.6 315.3 376.7 222.0
World 266.6 283.9 333.3 394.2 464.4 537.9 271.2

millions

Source: OPEC

 

Table 3.6

Number of electric vehicles, 2022-2045
  2022 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 Growth 2022-2045
OECD Americas 4.1 9.7 29.3 58.2 90.3 126.9 122.9
OECD Europe 9.3 23.0 60.0 95.0 119.5 141.0 131.7
OECD Asia-Pacific 0.6 1.4 5.6 14.0 23.9 32.3 31.7
OECD 13.9 34.1 94.9 167.3 233.7 300.2 286.3
China 15.7 37.8 88.6 135.7 171.4 188.5 172.8
India 0.2 0.6 2.7 7.6 14.7 22.3 22.1
Other Asia 0.3 1.0 5.5 16.7 31.4 46.6 46.3
Russia 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.6 3.2 4.9 4.9
Other non-OECD 0.2 0.6 3.0 10.3 23.7 39.0 38.8
Non-OECD 16.4 40.1 100.3 171.9 244.4 301.3 284.9
World 30.3 74.2 195.2 339.2 478.1 601.5 571.2

millions

Source: OPEC

 

Table 3.7

Oil demand in the road transportation sector by region, 2022-2045
  2022 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 Growth 2022-2045
OECD Americas 13.7 13.8 13.1 12.2 11.4 10.6 -3.1
OECD Europe 6.3 6.2 5.8 5.1 4.4 3.6 -2.7
OECD Asia-Pacific 2.6 2.6 2.3 1.9 1.6 1.2 -1.4
OECD 22.6 22.6 21.2 19.3 17.3 15.4 -7.2
China 5.9 6.9 7.5 7.6 7.6 7.6 1.6
India 2.1 2.5 3.3 4.1 5.0 6.0 3.9
Other Asia 3.4 3.9 4.4 4.9 5.3 5.6 2.2
Latin America 3.3 3.3 3.6 3.8 3.9 4.0 0.7
Middle East 3.1 3.4 3.6 4.0 4.2 4.5 1.4
Africa 2.0 2.3 2.7 3.0 3.4 3.8 1.7
Russia 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 0.0
Other Eurasia 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.2
Other Europe 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.0
Non-OECD 21.9 24.4 27.5 29.8 31.7 33.7 11.7
World 44.5 47.0 48.8 49.1 49.1 49.1 4.6

mb/d

Source: OPEC

 

Table 3.8

Oil demand in the aviation sector by region, 2022-2045
  2022 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 Growth 2022-2045
OECD Americas 1.7 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.3 0.6
OECD Europe 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 0.3
OECD Asia-Pacific 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.2
OECD 3.4 4.0 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 1.1
China 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.3 0.6
India 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.5
Other Asia 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 0.7
Latin America 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.4
Middle East 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.4
Africa 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.4
Russia 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.0
Other Eurasia 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
Other Europe 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Non-OECD 2.7 3.6 4.2 4.7 5.2 5.7 3.1
World 6.1 7.6 8.4 9.0 9.6 10.2 4.1

mb/d

Source: OPEC

 

Table 3.9

Oil demand in the petrochemical sector by region, 2022-2045
  2022 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 Growth 2022-2045
OECD Americas 3.6 3.8 4.3 4.3 4.1 3.9 0.3
OECD Europe 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5 -0.3
OECD Asia-Pacific 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 0.1
OECD 7.4 7.7 8.3 8.1 7.8 7.4 0.0
China 2.3 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.0 0.7
India 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.2 0.7
Other Asia 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.3 0.9
Latin America 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.2
Middle East 1.3 1.5 1.8 2.0 2.4 2.7 1.4
Africa 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1
Russia 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.2
Other Eurasia 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Other Europe 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Non-OECD 6.9 7.9 8.7 9.5 10.4 11.2 4.3
World 14.3 15.6 17.0 17.6 18.2 18.6 4.3

mb/d

Source: OPEC

 

Table 3.10

Oil demand in the residential/commercial/agricultural sector by region, 2022-2045
  2022 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 Growth 2022-2045
OECD Americas 1.6 1.6 1.8 1.9 1.7 1.3 -0.3
OECD Europe 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.1 -0.4
OECD Asia-Pacific 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 -0.3
OECD 3.9 3.9 4.1 3.9 3.5 2.9 -1.0
China 2.5 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.1 0.5
India 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.8 1.9 0.8
Other Asia 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.0
Latin America 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.3 0.5
Middle East 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.1
Africa 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.4 0.8
Russia 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.0
Other Eurasia 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0
Other Europe 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
Non-OECD 7.2 7.6 8.4 8.9 9.4 9.9 2.6
World 11.2 11.5 12.5 12.8 12.9 12.8 1.6

mb/d

Source: OPEC

 

Table 3.11

Oil demand in the marine bunkers sector by region, 2022-2045
  2022 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 Growth 2022-2045
OECD Americas 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.0
OECD Europe 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 -0.2
OECD Asia-Pacific 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 -0.1
OECD 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 -0.3
China 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.1
India 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
Other Asia 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 0.5
Latin America 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2
Middle East 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.2
Africa 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1
Russia 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
Other Eurasia 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
Other Europe 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
Non-OECD 2.6 2.9 3.2 3.4 3.6 3.7 1.1
World 4.1 4.4 4.8 4.9 4.9 4.9 0.8

mb/d

Source: OPEC

 

Table 3.12

Oil demand in the 'other industry' sector by region, 2022-2045
  2022 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 Growth 2022-2045
OECD Americas 2.8 2.9 3.1 3.1 2.7 2.5 -0.3
OECD Europe 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 -0.1
OECD Asia-Pacific 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 -0.2
OECD 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.1 4.6 4.3 -0.6
China 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.3 0.1
India 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.6 0.5
Other Asia 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 0.3
Latin America 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.3 0.3
Middle East 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 0.3
Africa 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.3
Russia 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.0
Other Eurasia 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1
Other Europe 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0
Non-OECD 7.8 8.1 8.8 9.4 9.6 9.9 2.1
World 12.8 13.2 14.0 14.5 14.3 14.2 1.5

mb/d

Source: OPEC

 

Table 3.13

Oil demand in the rail and domestic waterways sector by region, 2022-2045
  2022 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 Growth 2022-2045
OECD Americas 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 -0.2
OECD Europe 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
OECD Asia-Pacific 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0
OECD 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5 -0.2
China 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.3
India 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
Other Asia 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1
Latin America 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1
Middle East 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Africa 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Russia 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
Other Eurasia 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Other Europe 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Non-OECD 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.7 0.6
World 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.2 0.3

mb/d

Source: OPEC

 

Table 3.14

Oil demand in the electricity generation sector by region, 2022-2045
  2022 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 Growth 2022-2045
OECD Americas 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.5
OECD Europe 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 -0.2
OECD Asia-Pacific 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 -0.3
OECD 1.4 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 -1.0
China 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0
India 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1
Other Asia 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 -0.1
Latin America 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.1
Middle East 1.4 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.3 -0.2
Africa 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.4
Russia 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
Other Eurasia 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Other Europe 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Non-OECD 3.3 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.6 0.2
World 4.7 4.7 4.5 4.3 4.2 4.0 -0.8

mb/d

Source: OPEC

 

Table 3.15

Global oil demand by product, 2022-2045
  2022 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 Growth 2022-2045
Ethane/LPG 12.9 14.1 15.5 16.0 16.4 16.5 3.6
Naphtha 6.3 7.0 7.7 8.1 8.5 8.8 2.5
Gasoline 26.3 28.1 28.9 29.0 29.0 28.8 2.5
Light products 45.6 49.2 52.1 53.1 53.8 54.2 8.6
Jet/kero 6.8 8.4 9.2 9.8 10.3 10.9 4.0
Gasoil/diesel 28.6 29.5 31.1 31.6 31.6 31.7 3.1
Middle distillates 35.4 38.0 40.3 41.4 41.9 42.6 7.1
Residual fuel 6.7 7.3 7.6 7.5 7.4 7.2 0.4
Other products 11.8 11.6 12.1 12.4 12.2 12.1 0.3
Heavy products 18.5 18.9 19.7 19.9 19.6 19.3 0.7
World 99.6 106.1 112.0 114.4 115.4 116.0 16.4

mb/d

Source: OPEC