Average global economic growth is seen at 3% p.a. over the long-term
Global economic growth is expected to average 3% per annum (p.a.) over the forecast period. Thus, over the entire outlook, global GDP is set to almost double from$138 trillion in 2022 to $270 trillion in 2045 (on a 2017 PPP basis). With average long-term growth of 6.1% p.a., India is expected to remain the fastest-growing major developing country. China and India alone are set to account for more than a third of the global economy in 2045.
Population growth drives energy demand requirements
Global population is expected to expand by around 1.5 billion from nearly eight billion in 2022 to about 9.5 billion by 2045. This will be driven by strong population growth in the Middle East & Africa and Other Asia. The global working-age population (aged between 15–64) is set to increase globally by 826 million over the forecast period, while the global urbanization rate is anticipated to rise from 57% in 2022 to 66% by 2045.
--- Quick Select ---
Figure 1.1 - World population growth, 1998-2022 versus 2022-2045
Figure 1.2 - World population trends, 1990-2045
Figure 1.3 - Urbanization rate for selected regions, 2000-2045
Figure 1.4 - Long-term GDP growth rates by components, 2022–2045
Figure 1.5 - Size of major economies, 2015–2045
Figure 1.6 - Distribution of the global economy, 2022 and 2045
Figure 1.7 - Real GDP per capita in 2022 and 2045
--- Quick Select ---
Table 1.1 - Population by region
Table 1.2 - Working population (age 15-64) by region
Table 1.3 - Net migration by region
Table 1.4 - Medium-term annual real GDP growth rate
Table 1.5 - Long-term annual real GDP growth rate
Table 1.1
Population by region
2022
2025
2030
2035
2040
245
Growth 2022-2045
OECD Americas
527
537
551
564
575
583
56
OECD Europe
583
585
587
587
587
584
1
OECD Asia-Pacific
216
215
214
211
208
205
-12
OECD
1,327
1,337
1,351
1,363
1,370
1,372
46
Latin America
482
492
508
522
533
541
59
Middle East & Africa
1,197
1,284
1,436
1,594
1,756
1,920
723
India
1,417
1,455
1,515
1,568
1,612
1,646
229
China
1,426
1,424
1,416
1,400
1,378
1,350
-76
Other Asia
1,258
1,300
1,368
1,430
1,486
1,535
277
OPEC
527
558
609
660
712
762
234
Russia
145
143
141
139
137
135
-10
Other Eurasia
196
198
201
203
205
207
11
Non-OECD
6,649
6,855
7,195
7,516
7,818
8,095
1,447
World
7,975
8,192
8,546
8,879
9,188
9,468
1,492
Table 1.2
Working population (age 15-64) by region
2022
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
Growth 2022-2045
OECD Americas
346
350
355
359
361
363
17
OECD Europe
376
374
367
360
351
342
-34
OECD Asia-Pacific
135
133
130
125
118
113
-22
OECD
857
857
852
843
830
818
-39
Latin America
327
334
344
351
354
354
28
Middle East & Africa
683
743
850
961
1,076
1,194
511
India
961
995
1,043
1,079
1,102
1,117
156
China
984
987
972
931
867
822
-162
Other Asia
825
855
901
942
976
1,005
180
OPEC
317
339
377
413
447
478
160
Russia
96
94
93
92
89
85
-11
Other Eurasia
127
128
130
132
132
131
4
Non-OECD
4,321
4,475
4,710
4,900
5,044
5,187
866
World
5,178
5,332
5,562
5,744
5,874
6,005
826
Table 1.3
Net migration by region
2022-2025
2025-2030
2030-2035
2035-2040
2040-2045
OECD Americas
5.2
5.9
6.3
6.3
6.2
OECD Europe
5.8
1.7
3.3
3.4
3.5
OECD Asia Oceania
1.4
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
OECD
12.5
9.1
11.1
11.2
11.1
Latin America
-0.6
-1.1
-0.8
-0.8
-0.7
Middle East & Africa
-1.3
-1.1
-1.9
-1.8
-1.8
India
-1.8
-2.4
-2.4
-2.5
-2.5
China
-1.2
-1.6
-1.5
-1.6
-1.5
Other Asia
-3.5
-4.2
-4.1
-4.1
-4.1
OPEC
-2.0
0.5
-0.3
-0.4
-0.4
Russia
1.4
0.3
0.5
0.5
0.5
Other Eurasia
-3.4
0.6
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5
Non-OECD
-12.4
-9.1
-11.1
-11.2
-11.1
Table 1.4
Medium-term annual real GDP growth rate
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
Average 2022-2028
OECD Americas
2.3
1.8
0.7
1.5
1.8
1.9
2.0
1.5
OECD Europe
3.8
0.6
1.0
1.4
1.7
1.8
1.8
1.4
OECD Asia-Pacific
2.0
1.2
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.4
1.4
1.3
OECD
2.9
1.2
0.9
1.4
1.7
1.8
1.8
1.5
Latin America
4.0
1.7
1.6
2.0
2.1
2.2
2.3
1.9
Middle East & Africa
3.4
2.6
2.9
3.2
3.3
3.4
3.4
3.1
India
6.7
5.6
5.9
6.2
6.3
6.3
6.4
6.1
China
3.0
5.2
4.8
4.8
5.0
4.9
4.8
4.9
Other Asia
4.6
3.6
3.8
4.5
4.5
4.6
4.6
4.3
OPEC
5.6
3.3
2.9
2.8
2.9
3.0
3.0
3.0
Russia
-2.1
0.6
1.0
1.0
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.0
Other Eurasia
-3.0
2.5
2.8
2.5
2.5
2.4
2.4
2.5
Non-OECD
3.6
3.9
3.9
4.1
4.3
4.3
4.3
4.1
World
3.2
2.7
2.6
2.9
3.1
3.2
3.3
3.0
Table 1.5
Long-term annual real GDP growth rate
2022-2028
2028-2035
2035-2045
2022-2045
OECD Americas
1.5
2.2
2.2
2.0
OECD Europe
1.4
1.5
1.1
1.3
OECD Asia Pacific
1.3
1.3
1.1
1.2
OECD
1.5
1.8
1.6
1.6
Latin America
1.9
2.2
1.8
1.9
Middle East & Africa
3.1
3.9
4.5
4.0
India
6.1
6.3
5.9
6.1
China
4.9
4.2
3.0
3.8
Other Asia
4.3
4.1
3.0
3.7
OPEC
3.0
3.1
3.2
3.1
Russia
1.0
1.4
1.2
1.2
Other Eurasia
2.5
2.5
2.3
2.4
Non-OECD
4.1
4.1
3.5
3.8
World
3.0
3.1
2.8
3.0
