Chapters
Chapter 1 - Key assumptions
Chapter 2 - Energy demand
Chapter 3 - Oil demand
Chapter 4 - Liquids supply
Chapter 5 - Refining outlook
Chapter 6 - Oil movements
Chapter 7 - Energy scenarios
Chapter 8 - Key Challenges and Opportunities
Information
Abbreviations
Major data sources
OPEC World Energy: definitions of regions
World Oil Refining Logistics and Demand: regional definitions
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2021
World Oil Outlook 2045
2021
World Oil Outlook 2045

Chapter 9 - Focus on India

Source: OPEC

 

Source: OPEC

 

Source: OPEC

 

Source: OPEC

 

Source: OPEC

 

Source: OPEC

 

Source: OPEC

 

Source: OPEC

 

Source: OPEC

 

Source: OPEC

 

Source: Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas, Government of India

 

Source: Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas, Government of India

 

Source: Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas, Government of India

 

Source: OPEC

* Potential: based on expected distillation capacity expansion; assuming no closures.

** Required: based on projected demand increases assuming no change in refined products trade pattern. 

 

Source: Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas, Government of India

 

Table 9.1

India primary energy demand by fuel type, 2020-2045
  Levels (mboe/d) Growth (mboe/d) Growth (% p.a.) Fuel share (%)
  2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2020-2045 2020-2045 2020 2045
Oil 4.4 5.8 7.1 8.4 9.7 10.8 6.4 3.7 25.2 28.6
Coal 7.6 9.4 10.9 12.4 13.4 13.8 6.1 2.4 43.7 36.3
Gas 1 1.5 2 2.6 3.2 3.8 2.8 5.4 5.9 10.1
Nuclear 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.8 1 1.3 1 6.8 1.4 3.4
Hydro 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.3 3 1.6 1.6
Biomass 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.9 3.9 4 0.3 0.4 20.7 10.4
Other renewables 0.3 0.6 1 1.7 2.5 3.6 3.4 11.1 1.5 9.6
Total 17.5 21.7 25.8 30.3 34.3 37.9 20.4 3.1 100 100

Source: OPEC

 

Table 9.2

India medium-term liquids supply outlook
  2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Change 2020-2026
Crude 0.65 0.62 0.6 0.64 0.65 0.64 0.63 0.62 -0
NGLs 0.13 0.12 0.12 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.01
Other unconventionals 0 0 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
Biofuels 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.04
Total 0.82 0.77 0.76 0.81 0.82 0.83 0.82 0.82 0.05

​mb/d

Source: OPEC

 

Table 9.3

India long-term liquids supply outlook
  2019 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 Change 2020-2045
Crude 0.65 0.62 0.63 0.57 0.51 0.45 0.39 -0.23
NGLs 0.13 0.12 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.01
Other unconventionals 0 0 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02
Biofuels 0.04 0.03 0.06 0.1 0.14 0.19 0.19 0.15
Total 0.82 0.77 0.82 0.81 0.79 0.78 0.72 -0.04

​mb/d

Source: OPEC

 

Table 9.4

India liquids supply outlook according to the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas
  2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Change 2020-2025
Total 0.77 0.8 0.88 0.97 1.01 1.01 0.24

​mb/d

Source: Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas, Government of India.

 

Table 9.5

List of existing refinery projects in India
Company Location Completion Distillation capacity (kb/d)
HPCL Mumbai, MH (Mahul) 2021 40
HPCL Visakhapatnam, AP 2022 134
IOCL Baraundi, Bihar (Barauni) 2023 60
IOCL Koyali, Gujarat 2023 86
Nagarjuna Oil Corporation Nagarjuna 2023 120
IOCL Panipat (Phase 1) 2024 100
Reliance Industries Jamnagar, Gujarat 2024 116
BPCL (NRL) Numaligarh, AS 2025 121
CPCL Nagapattinam - Cauvery Basin 2025 160
HPCL / ONGC Barmer, Rajasthan 2025 180
MRPL Mangalore, KA 2025 74
Nayara Energy(Rosneft (Fmr: Essar Group)) Vadinar, Gujarat 2025 400
Total     1591

kb/d

Source: Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas, Government of India