Uncertainties on future economic development, energy policies and technology have widened the range of possible oil demand paths

Developments during the past year have made it clear that there are a number of uncertainties related to the main factors affecting future oil demand. In respect to the global economy, the risk for oil demand over the medium-term is skewed to the downside and primarily related to a potentially extended pandemic situation. In the long-term, the risk is rather symmetric with each path deviating from the Reference Case by more than 6 mb/d at the end of the forecast period.

The faster implementation of more stringent policies and penetration of energy efficient technologies could reduce future oil demand by more than 8 mb/d in 2045, compared to the Reference Case. Oil demand in the road transportation sector alone could be reduced by some 3 mb/d in 2045.

Supply modelling suggests an uncertainty range of 10 mb/d in the long-term,heavily skewed to the downside

Lower and Higher Supply Cases indicate a range of 7.5 mb/d in the medium-term, and as much as 10 mb/d in the long-term, heavily skewed to the downside. In the Lower Case, US tight oil declines gradually until a modest rebound is seen in the latter part of the 2020s, although it never again reaches pre-pandemic levels. This opens up a potential downside of nearly 4 mb/d at peak. In other non-OPEC countries, project cancellations, lower investment and to some extent policy measures curb as much as 3 mb/d in the long-term. The Higher Supply Case projects a US tight oil production upside of around 1 mb/d, while output in other non-OPEC countries adds 2.5 mb/d in the long-term.