Global crude and condensate trade set to recover from the 2020 shock with a gradual long-term increase and significant regional shifts

After the drop in 2020, global crude and condensate trade is projected to reach levels above 38 mb/d in 2025 and 2030 and 40 mb/d and above from 2035 onwards. This is supported by increased oil demand in the Asia-Pacific and rising crude and condensate supply in the Middle East. In the longer-term, Middle East crude and condensate exports are projected to increase to almost 23 mb/d in 2045, up from 18.5 mb/d in 2019, and in line with rising demand for OPEC liquids. Consequently, the share of the Middle East in the global crude and condensate trade increases to 57% in 2045, from 48% in 2019.

Asia-Pacific crude and condensate imports are projected to grow in the long- term with an increasing share of imports from the Middle East

Asia-Pacific will remain the most important region in terms of crude and condensate imports in the long-term. The overall import volumes are expected to increase from around 23.5 mb/d in 2019 (22 mb/d in 2020) to almost 30 mb/d by 2045. The Middle East remains the main supplier to the Asia-Pacific, with flows increasing to above 19.5 mb/d by 2045, which is around 4.8 mb/d higher relative to levels seen in 2019.