In the medium-term, 6.9 mb/d of new refining capacity is expected, in line with strong demand prospects in developing regions. Given global oil demand trends, this would lead to a distillation capacity overhang by 2026. However, during the ongoing rationalization wave, accelerated by the 2020 demand shock and the strategy shifts of some oil companies, around 4.5 mb/d of refining capacity could be shut in, mostly in developed regions. This should help balance out the downstream market in the medium-term.
Global refining distillation additions are projected at 14 mb/d between 2021 and 2045, of which 6.9 mb/d is in the medium-term (by 2026) and 7.1 mb/d beyond 2026. In line with oil demand patterns, almost 95% of the total additions is expected in developing regions, including the Asia-Pacific (6.4 mb/d), the Middle East (2.8 mb/d), Africa (3 mb/d) and Latin America (1 mb/d). However, the rate of distillation additions is expected to decelerate considerably throughout the outlook period with minor global additions beyond 2040.
At the global level, projections indicate the need to add some 7.1 mb/d of conversion units, 16.7 mb/d of desulphurization capacity and 4.7 mb/d of octane units in the period 2021–2045, to go with 14 mb/d of new distillation capacity. This is supported by stricter product specifications and a shift to higher-quality refined products.
Source: OPEC
Source: OPEC
Source: OPEC
Source: OPEC
Source: OPEC
Source: OPEC
Source: OPEC
* Potential: based on expected distillation capacity expansion; assuming no closures.
** Required: based on projected demand increases assuming no change in refined products trade pattern.
Source: OPEC
Source: OPEC
Source: OPEC
Source: OPEC
Source: OPEC
Source: OPEC
Source: OPEC
Source: OPEC
Source: OPEC
Source: OPEC
Source: OPEC
* Effective ‘spare’ capacity estimate based on assumed 84% utilization rate, accounting for already-closed capacity.
Source: OPEC
Source: OPEC
Source: OPEC
Source: OPEC
Source: OPEC
* Projects and additions exclude naphtha desulphurization.
Source: OPEC
* Projects and additions exclude naphtha desulphurization
Source: OPEC
Source: OPEC
*Declining product demand in some regions contributes to the surplus
Source: OPEC
| US & Canada | Latin America | Africa | Europe | Russia & Caspian | Middle East | China | Other Asia-Pacific | World | |
| Distillation | |||||||||
| Crude oil (atmospheric) | 20.2 | 7.7 | 3.9 | 15.7 | 7.6 | 9.9 | 17.4 | 19.5 | 101.9 |
| Vacuum | 9.1 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 6.7 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 7.0 | 6.1 | 39.2 |
| Upgrading | |||||||||
| Coking | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 8.8 |
| Catalytic Cracking | 5.8 | 1.6 | 0.2 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 19.6 |
| HydroCracking | 2.5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 10.9 |
| Visbreaking | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 4.1 |
| Solvent Deasphalting | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 1.2 |
| Gasoline | |||||||||
| Reforming | 3.8 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 14.5 |
| Isomerization | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 3.0 |
| Alkylation | 1.3 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 2.5 |
| Polymerization | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
| MTBE/ETBE | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.6 |
| Desulphurization | |||||||||
| Naphtha | 4.7 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 3.3 | 17.6 |
| Gasoline | 2.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 7.7 |
| Middle Distillates | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 4.5 | 7.0 | 32.4 |
| Heavy Oil/Residual Fuel | 3.2 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 1.8 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 3.1 | 10.7 |
| Sulphur (short tons/day) | 42,616 | 7,242 | 3,889 | 20,211 | 7,818 | 13,018 | 18,923 | 33,048 | 146,765 |
| Hydrogen (million scf/d) | 6,423 | 1,221 | 397 | 5,001 | 2,033 | 3,157 | 6,676 | 6,422 | 31,331 |
| US & Canada | Latin America | Africa | Europe | Russia & Caspian | Middle E§ast | China | Other Asia-Pacific | World | |
| 2021 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 1.2 |
| 2022 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 0 | 0 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 1.6 |
| 2023 | 0.2 | 0 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.9 |
| 2024 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.9 |
| 2025 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 1.3 |
| 2026 | 0 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 1 |
| 2021 - 2026 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 1.2 | 0 | 0.1 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 6.9 |
| % | 0 | 0 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 1 |
| Distillation capacity additions starting 2021 | ||||
| Assessed projects* | New Units | Total | Annualized | |
| 2021 - 2025 | 5.9 | 0.2 | 6.2 | 1.0 |
| 2025 - 2030 | 1.0 | 2.4 | 3.4 | 0.7 |
| 2030 - 2035 | 0.0 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 0.5 |
| 2035 - 2040 | 0.0 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.3 |
| 2040 - 2045 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| Cumulative distillation capacity additions | ||||
| Assessed projects* | New Units | Total | Annualized | |
| 2021 - 2025 | 5.9 | 0.2 | 6.2 | 1.0 |
| 2021 - 2030 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 9.6 | 0.9 |
| 2021 - 2035 | 6.9 | 4.9 | 11.8 | 0.7 |
| 2021 - 2040 | 6.9 | 6.5 | 13.4 | 0.6 |
| 2021 - 2045 | 6.9 | 7.1 | 14.0 | 0.5 |
| Total crude unit throughputs (mb/d) | |||||||||
| US & Canada | Latin America | Africa | Europe | Russia & Caspian | Middle East | China | Other Asia-Pacific | Global | |
| 2019 | 18.3 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 12.6 | 7 | 7.4 | 13.1 | 17 | 81.9 |
| 2020 | 16 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 11 | 6.7 | 6.6 | 13.5 | 14.9 | 74.5 |
| 2025 | 17.9 | 5.1 | 2.9 | 11.9 | 6.8 | 8.5 | 14.4 | 17.3 | 84.7 |
| 2030 | 17.1 | 5.6 | 3.6 | 11.6 | 6.6 | 9 | 14.5 | 17.3 | 85.3 |
| 2035 | 16.4 | 5.9 | 4.1 | 11.2 | 6.4 | 9.2 | 14.8 | 18.1 | 86.2 |
| 2040 | 16 | 6.2 | 4.5 | 9.8 | 6.1 | 9.9 | 14.6 | 19 | 86.2 |
| 2045 | 15.7 | 6.4 | 4.9 | 9.1 | 6.1 | 10.3 | 14.6 | 19 | 86.1 |
| Crude unit utilizations (% of calendar day capacity) | |||||||||
| US & Canada | Latin America | Africa | Europe | Russia & Caspian | Middle East | China | Other Asia-Pacific | Global | |
| 2019 | 88.7 | 55.4 | 62.2 | 77.8 | 91.1 | 76 | 76.7 | 87.8 | 80.3 |
| 2020 | 79.4 | 48.8 | 53.3 | 69.8 | 88.1 | 66.8 | 77.9 | 76.2 | 73.1 |
| 2025 | 88.9 | 64.3 | 59.7 | 80.9 | 88.9 | 72.7 | 78.1 | 86.7 | 80.5 |
| 2030 | 84.6 | 68.2 | 62.1 | 79.1 | 86.3 | 75.5 | 77.4 | 81.5 | 78.7 |
| 2035 | 81 | 71.4 | 64.7 | 76.6 | 83.4 | 74.1 | 78.1 | 82.3 | 77.9 |
| 2040 | 79.3 | 73.1 | 67.9 | 67.2 | 79 | 78.5 | 76.1 | 83.5 | 76.8 |
| 2045 | 77.9 | 74 | 72.1 | 62.6 | 78.4 | 80.8 | 76.1 | 82.7 | 76.3 |
| Total 2012-2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total 2020-2026 | |
| US & Canada | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.1 |
| Latin America | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
| Europe | 1.7 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 1.4 |
| Russia & Caspian | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Africa | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 |
| Middle East | 0.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Asia-Pacific | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.8 |
| Total | 6.0 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 4.5 |
| By region | |||
| Conversion | Desulphurization* | Octane units | |
| US & Canada | -0 | 0.2 | 0 |
| Latin America | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| Africa | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| Europe | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0 |
| Russia & Caspian | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| Middle East | 0.5 | 2.2 | 0.5 |
| China | 1 | 0.9 | 0.5 |
| Other Asia | 0.8 | 1 | 0.3 |
| World | 3.7 | 5.9 | 1.8 |
| By year | |||
| Conversion | Desulphurization* | Octane units | |
| 2021 | 0.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2022 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2023 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2024 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2025 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 2026 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| Existing projects | Additional requirements | Total additions | ||
| to 2026* | 2026-2035 | 2035-2045 | to 2045 | |
| <strong>Crude distillation</strong> | <strong>6.9</strong> | <strong>4.9</strong> | <strong>2.2</strong> | <strong>14.0</strong> |
| <strong>Conversion</strong> | <strong>3.7</strong> | <strong>1.9</strong> | <strong>1.4</strong> | <strong>7.1</strong> |
| Coking/Visbreaking | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 1.5 |
| Catalytic cracking | 0.9 | 1 | 0.7 | 2.6 |
| Hydro-cracking | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 3 |
| <strong>Desulphurization**</strong> | <strong>4.5</strong> | <strong>9.1</strong> | <strong>3.1</strong> | <strong>16.7</strong> |
| Gasoline | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 1.4 |
| Distillate | 3.1 | 8 | 1.3 | 12.3 |
| VGO/Resid | 0.9 | 0.6 | 1.5 | 3 |
| <strong>Octane units***</strong> | <strong>1.8</strong> | <strong>1.8</strong> | <strong>1.1</strong> | <strong>4.7</strong> |
| Catalytic reforming | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 2.8 |
| Alkylation | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 1 |
| Isomerization | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.5 |
| MTBE | 0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.4 |
| Gasoline / Naphtha | Middle distillates | Fuel oil | Other products | Total | |
| 2020 | 0.4 | 0.7 | -0.1 | 0.4 | 1.3 |
| 2021 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 2.5 |
| 2022 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 0.1 | 1.0 | 3.8 |
| 2023 | 1.2 | 2.2 | 0.1 | 1.4 | 5.0 |
| 2024 | 1.5 | 2.6 | 0.1 | 1.7 | 5.8 |
| 2025 | 1.8 | 3.1 | 0.1 | 1.9 | 6.9 |
| 2026 | 2.1 | 3.5 | 0.1 | 2.2 | 7.8 |
| 27% | 44% | 1% | 28% | 100% |