Non-OPEC liquids supply is set to continue its recovery and regain pre-pandemic levels in the course of 2022. As oil demand picks up again with the world economy expanding rapidly, in addition to the market stabilization efforts of OPEC and other participating countries in the DoC, fundamentals look set to remain stable and supportive, encouraging a return to upstream activity and investments. As such, non-OPEC total liquids supply is projected to rise from 62.9 mb/d in 2020 to 70.4 mb/d in 2026. The key contributors to growth are the US, Brazil, Russia, Guyana, Canada, Kazakhstan, Norway and Qatar.
Supportive market fundamentals should incentivize a return to growth for US tight oil production from 2022, which is expected to rise from 11.5 mb/d in 2020 to 14.8 mb/d in 2026. Tight oil output is expected to peak at 15.2 mb/d in the late 2020s, with US total liquids hitting a maximum of around 20.5 mb/d around the same time.
In the long-term, after US liquids supply peaks, total non-OPEC liquids output is set to decline from a peak of 71 mb/d around 2030 to 65.5 mb/d in 2045, basically level with pre-pandemic 2019. As a result, OPEC liquids, which are expected to recover to pre-pandemic levels around the mid-2020s, rise further, increasing from 35.7 mb/d in 2030 to 42.7 mb/d in 2045. OPEC’s global market share rises from 33% at the nadir in 2020, to 39% in 2045.
Cumulative investment requirements in the oil sector amount to $11.8 trillion in 2021–2045. Of this, 80% or $9.2 trillion, is directed towards the upstream, the bulk of which is in North America, as US tight oil, in particular, drives medium-term non-OPEC supply growth. Downstream and midstream investment needs, in order to expand and maintain the associated refinery, storage and pipeline systems required to bring oil to market, necessitate another $1.5 and $1.1 trillion, respectively.
Source: OPEC
Source: OPEC
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
| Source: OPEC |
| *Figure shows the number of years by which project start-ups have been delayed, comparing the WOO 2021 assessment with that of pre-pandemic WOO 2019. |
Source: OPEC
Source: OPEC
Source: OPEC
Source: OPEC
Source: OPEC
Source: OPEC
* Latin America other includes Bolivia, Cuba, Peru, Trinidad & Tobago and smaller producers, but excludes OPEC Member Venezuela
Source: OPEC
Source: OPEC
| Source: OPEC |
| * Africa other includes Cameroon, Senegal, Tunisia, Uganda and smaller producers, and excludes African OPEC producers |
Source: OPEC
Source: Rystad Energy, July 2021
Source: OPEC
| Source: OPEC |
| * Includes crude, condensate and synthetic crudes |
| Source: OPEC |
Source: OPEC
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Change 2020-2026 | |
| US | 18.4 | 17.6 | 17.7 | 18.4 | 19.3 | 19.9 | 20.3 | 20.5 | 2.9 |
| of which: tight liquids | 11.7 | 11.5 | 11.6 | 12.3 | 13.3 | 14 | 14.5 | 14.8 | 3.3 |
| Canada | 5.4 | 5.2 | 5.5 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 0.4 |
| of which: oil sands | 2.9 | 2.8 | 3 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 0.3 |
| OECD Americas | 25.8 | 24.7 | 25.1 | 26 | 26.9 | 27.4 | 27.8 | 27.9 | 3.2 |
| OECD Europe | 3.7 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 0.3 |
| of which: Norway | 1.7 | 2 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 0.3 |
| OECD Asia Oceania | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| OECD | 30 | 29.1 | 29.6 | 30.7 | 31.9 | 32.5 | 32.8 | 32.7 | 3.6 |
| Latin America | 6.1 | 6 | 6.2 | 6.5 | 6.8 | 7.1 | 7.5 | 8 | 1.9 |
| of which: Brazil | 3.6 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 4 | 4.2 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 5 | 1.3 |
| Middle East | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 0.3 |
| Africa | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.2 |
| China | 4 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Other Asia | 3.5 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.1 | -0.2 |
| Russia | 11.6 | 10.6 | 10.6 | 11.1 | 11.2 | 11.3 | 11.4 | 11.4 | 0.9 |
| Other Eurasia | 3.2 | 3 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 0.3 |
| Non-OECD | 33.2 | 31.6 | 31.9 | 32.8 | 33.3 | 33.9 | 34.5 | 35.1 | 3.5 |
| Processing gains | 2.4 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 0.4 |
| Non-OPEC | 65.5 | 62.9 | 63.8 | 65.9 | 67.6 | 68.8 | 69.8 | 70.4 | 7.5 |
| Total OPEC liquids | 34.6 | 30.7 | 30.9 | 33.8 | 34 | 34 | 34 | 34.1 | 3.5 |
| World | 100 | 93.6 | 94.7 | 99.7 | 101.6 | 102.8 | 103.8 | 104.6 | 10.9 |
| 2019 | 2020 | 2025 | 2030 | 2035 | 2040 | 2045 | Change 2020-2045 | |
| US | 18.4 | 17.6 | 20.3 | 20.3 | 19.3 | 18.1 | 16.9 | -0.7 |
| of which: tight oil | 11.7 | 11.5 | 14.5 | 15.2 | 15 | 14.2 | 13.3 | 1.8 |
| Canada | 5.4 | 5.2 | 5.6 | 5.7 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 6.1 | 0.9 |
| of which: oil sands | 2.9 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 4.1 | 1.3 |
| OECD Americas | 25.8 | 24.7 | 27.8 | 27.8 | 26.9 | 25.7 | 24.6 | -0.1 |
| OECD Europe | 3.7 | 3.9 | 4.4 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 3.1 | -0.8 |
| of which: Norway | 1.7 | 2 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.3 | -0.7 |
| OECD Asia Oceania | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | -0.1 |
| OECD | 30 | 29.1 | 32.8 | 32.4 | 31 | 29.5 | 28.1 | -1 |
| Latin America | 6.1 | 6 | 7.5 | 8.5 | 8.6 | 8.5 | 8.4 | 2.3 |
| of which: Brazil | 3.6 | 3.7 | 4.8 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 1.6 |
| Middle East | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 0.5 |
| Africa | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.1 |
| China | 4 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 4 | 3.9 | 3.7 | -0.4 |
| Other Asia | 3.5 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 3 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 2.4 | -0.9 |
| Russia | 11.6 | 10.6 | 11.4 | 11.6 | 11.4 | 11.4 | 11.3 | 0.7 |
| Other Eurasia | 3.2 | 3 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 0.3 |
| Non-OECD | 33.2 | 31.6 | 34.5 | 35.9 | 35.5 | 35 | 34.2 | 2.6 |
| Processing gains | 2.4 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 3 | 3.1 | 1 |
| Non-OPEC | 65.5 | 62.9 | 69.8 | 71 | 69.4 | 67.5 | 65.5 | 2.5 |
| Total OPEC liquids | 34.6 | 30.7 | 34 | 35.7 | 38.5 | 40.6 | 42.7 | 12 |
| World | 100 | 93.6 | 103.8 | 106.7 | 107.9 | 108.1 | 108.2 | 14.6 |
| 2019 | 2020 | 2025 | 2030 | 2035 | 2040 | 2045 | Change 2020-2045 | |
| US tight oil | 11.7 | 11.5 | 14.5 | 15.2 | 15 | 14.2 | 13.3 | 1.8 |
| of which: tight crude | 7.8 | 7.3 | 9.7 | 9.7 | 8.9 | 8 | 7.1 | -0.2 |
| of which: unconventional NGLs | 3.9 | 4.3 | 4.9 | 5.5 | 6.1 | 6.2 | 6.2 | 1.9 |
| US Gulf of Mexico crude | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.4 | -0.2 |
| US Alaska crude | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | -0.2 |
| US other crude | 2.1 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 1 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.4 | -1.6 |
| US other NGLs | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | -0.6 |
| US biofuels | 1.1 | 1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.1 |
| US other liquids | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | -0 |
| Memo item: US total crude | 12.2 | 11.3 | 13.4 | 12.9 | 11.6 | 10.3 | 9.2 | -2.1 |
| Memo item: US total NGLs | 4.8 | 5.2 | 5.6 | 6.1 | 6.4 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 1.3 |
| Total US liquids production | 18.4 | 17.6 | 20.3 | 20.3 | 19.3 | 18.1 | 16.9 | -0.7 |
| 2019 | 2020 | 2025 | 2030 | 2035 | 2040 | 2045 | Change 2020-2045 | |
| Non-OPEC | 65.5 | 62.9 | 69.8 | 71 | 69.4 | 67.5 | 65.5 | 2.5 |
| Crude | 45.8 | 43.5 | 48 | 47.5 | 44.7 | 41.9 | 39.3 | -4.1 |
| NGLs | 11 | 11.2 | 12.3 | 13.3 | 13.8 | 14 | 14.1 | 2.8 |
| Global biofuels | 2.6 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 1.5 |
| Other liquids | 3.8 | 3.7 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 4.6 | 4.8 | 5 | 1.4 |
| Total OPEC liquids | 34.6 | 30.7 | 34 | 35.7 | 38.5 | 40.6 | 42.7 | 12 |
| World | 100.1 | 93.6 | 103.8 | 106.7 | 107.9 | 108.1 | 108.2 | 14.6 |
| 2019 | 2020 | 2025 | 2030 | 2035 | 2040 | 2045 | Change 2020-2045 | |
| OECD Americas | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.2 |
| of which: US fuel ethanol | 1 | 0.9 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.1 |
| OECD Europe | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| OECD Asia Oceania | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| OECD | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 2 | 0.6 |
| Latin America | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 1 | 1 | 0.3 |
| of which: Brazilian fuel ethanol | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| China | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| Other Asia | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| Non-OECD | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| Non-OPEC | 2.6 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 1.5 |
| of which: fuel ethanol | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 |
| of which: biodiesel | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 |
| 2019 | 2020 | 2025 | 2030 | 2035 | 2040 | 2045 | Change 2020-2045 | |
| US | 11.7 | 11.5 | 14.5 | 15.2 | 15 | 14.2 | 13.3 | 1.8 |
| Canada | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| Russia | 0 | 0 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Argentina | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Total tight liquids | 12.2 | 12.1 | 15.4 | 16.3 | 16.2 | 15.6 | 14.7 | 2.6 |