Global energy demand is set to increase from 275.4 mboe/d in 2020 to 352 mboe/d by 2045

Non-OECD primary energy demand is expected to constitute well over 70% of global primary energy demand in the long-term, growing from 174 million barrels of oil equivalent a day (mboe/d) in 2020 to 252 mboe/d in 2045. This growth is mainly attributable to increasing populations and growing economies in Asia, Africa and the Middle East. 

For the OECD region, energy demand is set to flatten in the long-term. This underscores a further decoupling from economic growth due to structural changes and a policy push that continues to place increasing emphasis on energy efficiency and the deployment of low-carbon energy technologies. After a partial recovery from the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, energy demand in the region is set to peak in the medium-term before declining to around 102 mboe/d by 2045, reaching a level similar to that seen in 2020.

Oil is forecast to remain the fuel with the largest share of the global energy mix until 2045

Primary oil demand is set to increase in the long-term from 82.5 mboe/d in 2020 to 99 mboe/d in 2045. Despite decelerating oil demand growth in the second part of the forecast period and strong growth in other energy sources, such as other renewables, gas and nuclear, oil is expected to retain the highest share in the global energy mix during the entire period. In 2020, oil accounted for 30% of global energy requirements. Alongside post-pandemic oil demand recovery, the share of oil is anticipated to gradually increase to a level of more than 31% by 2025, before it begins a decline and reach 28% by 2045.

‘Other renewables’ and natural gas are projected to contribute most to future incremental energy demand

Demand for other renewables is projected to expand from 6.8 mboe/d in 2020 to 36.6 mboe/d in 2045, representing the single-largest incremental contribution to the future energy mix. Moreover, it is also the fastest-growing energy source with its share in the global primary energy mix above 10% in 2045, up from just 2.5% in 2020. This is driven by falling costs and policies focused on reducing emissions. Gas demand is expected to increase by 21.6 mboe/d between 2020 and 2045. This brings total gas demand to 85.7 mboe/d in 2045, thus becoming the second-largest fuel in the energy mix.

More stringent policies are set to reduce coal demand by almost 12 mboe/d duringthe forecast period

Medium- to long-term coal demand is forecast to drop meaningfully across all OECD regions. This is most dramatic in OECD Europe, where it falls by 5.5% p.a. over the forecast period. China’s coal demand is expected to slow to a plateau in the medium-term and then see a significant drop in the longer-term. At the global level, demand for coal is set to decline by almost 12 mboe/d, primarily due to measures targeting emissions reduction.