High degree of uncertainty related to European imports and Russian exports of crude and condensate

Following the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, several regions including the European Union (EU), the United Kingdom (UK), the US and Canada have imposed a ban on oil and product imports from Russia. This outlook assumes that Europe will continue to import some Russian crude in the medium- to long-term. However, this outlook recognizes the potential lasting consequences of the oil embargo, meaning that flows from Russia to the EU are likely to be significantly lower compared to 2021.

Medium-term global crude and condensate trade to rise significantly, followed by a gradual increase thereafter

Total crude and condensate trade is expected to increase from 33.9 mb/d in 2021 to almost 40.5 mb/d by 2045. The Middle East remains by far the most important crude and condensate exporter throughout the period. In line with rising demand for OPEC liquids, it is projected to increase its exports from 15.7 mb/d in 2021 to 22.7 mb/d in 2045, or more than 56% of total trade movements. Latin American exports are set to grow strongly, reaching 5.7 mb/d in 2045, up from 3.4 mb/d in 2021. In line with supply trends, US & Canada exports are set to peak in 2025 at 4.7 mb/d, followed by a gradual decline to 2.3 mb/d in 2045.

Crude and condensate flows to Asia-Pacific increase strongly, based on robust demand growth and declining local supply

Total imports increase from 22.5 mb/d in 2021 to above 30 mb/d in 2045. The Middle East remains the most significant supplier and increases its share in total Asia-Pacific imports from around 60% in 2021 to 65% in 2045. Other regions are also projected to increase shipments to Asia-Pacific in the medium- and/or long-term, including Latin America, Russia & Caspian and the US & Canada.