Global primary energy demand is expected to increase from 286 million barrels of oil equivalent a day (mboe/d) in 2021 to 351 mboe/d in 2045, a rise of 23%. The drivers of global energy demand are exclusively non-OECD countries, increasing by 69 mboe/d in the outlook period. India alone accounts for 28% of this expansion. With strong policy support and declining long-term costs, other renewables (mostly wind and solar) are the fastest and largest growing category in the energy mix, adding 31 mboe/d in the outlook period. Natural gas is anticipated to increase by 19 mboe/d, followed by oil with just over 12 mboe/d.
Demand for oil as a primary fuel is anticipated to increase from 88 mboe/d in 2021 to 101 mboe/d in 2045, with its share in the energy mix dropping from 31% to just below 29%. Despite decelerating oil demand growth, oil is set to retain the highest share in the global energy mix during the entire forecast period. The combined market share of oil and gas in the global primary energy mix is expected to remain above 50% to 2045.
As of 2020, about 733 million people remained without access to electricity, and approximately 80% of these people are located in Africa. Moreover, about 2.4 billion people still lacked access to clean cooking solutions in 2020, accounting for one-third of the world’s population. This is progress on the three billion number in 2010, with improvements in Asian economies where there was decline from around 2.1 billion in 2010 to 1.3 billion in 2020. However, this masks the deterioration in Sub-Saharan Africa where more than 920 million people did not have access to clean cooking fuels, compared to around 750 million in 2010.
Despite rising energy demand growth during the forecast period, per capita consumption in non-OECD countries will remain far below that in OECD countries in 2045. This is especially true for regions such as Sub-Saharan Africa and India.
Source: OPEC
Source: OPEC
Source: OPEC
Source: OPEC
Source: OPEC
Source: OPEC
Source: OPEC
Source: OPEC
Source: IAEA
Source: OPEC
Source: OPEC
Source: OPEC
Source: OPEC
Source: OPEC
Source: OPEC
Source: OPEC
Source: OPEC
Source: OPEC
Source: OPEC
Source: OPEC
Source: GECF Secretariat based on data from the GECF GGM
Note: Others include bioenergy, nuclear and hydrogen
Source: GECF Secretariat based on data from the GECF GGM
Note: Others include bioenergy, nuclear and hydrogen
Source: GECF Secretariat based on data from the GECF GGM
Source: GECF Secretariat based on data from the GECF GGM
Source: GECF Secretariat based on data from the GECF GGM
Note: FEED includes, pre-FEED and FEED completed project status
The Figure reflects all the probable (beyond 2050) LNG liquefaction capacity projects in Africa
| Levels (mboe/d) | Growth (mboe/d) | Growth (% p.a.) | Fuel share (%) | |||||||
| 2021 | 2025 | 2030 | 2035 | 2040 | 2045 | 2021-2045 | 2021-2045 | 2021 | 2045 | |
| Oil | 88.3 | 96.1 | 98.9 | 100.1 | 100.5 | 100.6 | 12.3 | 0.5 | 30.9 | 28.7 |
| Coal | 74.7 | 74.0 | 70.7 | 66.4 | 62.1 | 58.2 | -16.5 | -1.0 | 26.1 | 16.6 |
| Gas | 66.4 | 69.9 | 74.9 | 79.5 | 83.0 | 85.3 | 18.9 | 1.0 | 23.2 | 24.3 |
| Nuclear | 15.2 | 16.3 | 17.8 | 19.6 | 21.7 | 23.3 | 8.1 | 1.8 | 5.3 | 6.6 |
| Hydro | 7.5 | 8.0 | 8.7 | 9.4 | 10.1 | 10.4 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 2.6 | 3.0 |
| Biomass | 26.2 | 27.9 | 30.0 | 32.0 | 33.7 | 34.9 | 8.6 | 1.2 | 9.2 | 9.9 |
| Other renewables | 7.4 | 11.2 | 17.8 | 24.9 | 32.5 | 38.3 | 30.9 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 10.9 |
| Total | 285.7 | 303.4 | 318.9 | 331.9 | 343.6 | 351.0 | 65.3 | 0.9 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
| Levels (mboe/d) | Growth (mboe/d) | Growth (% p.a.) | Share (%) | |||||||
| 2021 | 2025 | 2030 | 2035 | 2040 | 2045 | 2021-2045 | 2021-2045 | 2021 | 2045 | |
| OECD Americas | 54.0 | 55.8 | 55.5 | 54.9 | 54.2 | 53.7 | -0.3 | 0.0 | 18.9 | 15.3 |
| OECD Europe | 34.4 | 34.9 | 34.0 | 33.1 | 32.2 | 31.4 | -3.1 | -0.4 | 12.0 | 8.9 |
| OECD Asia-Pacific | 17.4 | 17.8 | 17.8 | 17.6 | 17.5 | 17.2 | -0.2 | -0.1 | 6.1 | 4.9 |
| OECD | 105.8 | 108.5 | 107.3 | 105.7 | 103.9 | 102.2 | -3.6 | -0.1 | 37.0 | 29.1 |
| China | 69.4 | 73.9 | 76.6 | 77.3 | 77.0 | 77.5 | 8.1 | 0.5 | 24.3 | 22.1 |
| India | 18.6 | 21.7 | 25.8 | 30.1 | 34.2 | 37.7 | 19.1 | 3.0 | 6.5 | 10.7 |
| OPEC | 19.2 | 22.0 | 25.2 | 28.3 | 31.2 | 33.2 | 14.0 | 2.3 | 6.7 | 9.5 |
| Other DCs | 48.9 | 54.3 | 60.6 | 66.5 | 72.7 | 75.3 | 26.4 | 1.8 | 17.1 | 21.5 |
| Russia | 16.0 | 15.0 | 15.0 | 14.9 | 14.8 | 14.7 | -1.3 | -0.3 | 5.6 | 4.2 |
| Other Eurasia | 7.8 | 8.1 | 8.5 | 9.1 | 9.7 | 10.4 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 2.7 | 3.0 |
| Non-OECD | 179.9 | 195.0 | 211.6 | 226.2 | 239.8 | 248.8 | 68.9 | 1.4 | 63.0 | 70.9 |
| World | 285.7 | 303.4 | 318.9 | 331.9 | 343.6 | 351.0 | 65.3 | 0.9 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
| Levels (mboe/d) | Growth (mboe/d) | Growth (% p.a.) | Fuel share (%) | |||||||
| 2021 | 2025 | 2030 | 2035 | 2040 | 2045 | 2021-2045 | 2021-2045 | 2021 | 2045 | |
| Oil | 38.5 | 40.3 | 38.1 | 35.0 | 31.8 | 28.8 | -9.7 | -1.2 | 36.4 | 28.1 |
| Coal | 14.4 | 12.9 | 10.8 | 9.1 | 7.7 | 6.5 | -7.9 | -3.3 | 13.6 | 6.4 |
| Gas | 29.7 | 30.0 | 29.9 | 29.9 | 29.6 | 29.0 | -0.7 | -0.1 | 28.1 | 28.4 |
| Nuclear | 10.4 | 10.4 | 10.7 | 11.0 | 11.3 | 11.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 9.8 | 11.3 |
| Hydro | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 2.3 | 2.9 |
| Biomass | 6.9 | 7.4 | 8.0 | 8.7 | 9.3 | 10.0 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 6.5 | 9.8 |
| Other renewables | 3.5 | 4.9 | 7.1 | 9.2 | 11.3 | 13.5 | 10.0 | 5.8 | 3.3 | 13.2 |
| Total | 105.8 | 108.5 | 107.3 | 105.7 | 103.9 | 102.2 | -3.6 | -0.1 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
| Levels (mboe/d) | Growth (mboe/d) | Growth (% p.a.) | Fuel share (%) | |||||||
| 2021 | 2025 | 2030 | 2035 | 2040 | 2045 | 2021-2045 | 2021-2045 | 2021 | 2045 | |
| Oil | 49.8 | 55.8 | 60.8 | 65.1 | 68.7 | 71.9 | 22.0 | 1.5 | 27.7 | 28.9 |
| Coal | 60.3 | 61.1 | 59.9 | 57.3 | 54.4 | 51.7 | -8.6 | -0.6 | 33.5 | 20.8 |
| Gas | 36.7 | 40.0 | 45.0 | 49.6 | 53.5 | 56.3 | 19.6 | 1.8 | 20.4 | 22.6 |
| Nuclear | 4.8 | 5.8 | 7.1 | 8.6 | 10.3 | 11.8 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 2.7 | 4.7 |
| Hydro | 5.0 | 5.5 | 6.1 | 6.7 | 7.3 | 7.5 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 2.8 | 3.0 |
| Biomass | 19.4 | 20.5 | 22.0 | 23.3 | 24.4 | 24.9 | 5.5 | 1.0 | 10.8 | 10.0 |
| Other renewables | 4.0 | 6.3 | 10.7 | 15.6 | 21.2 | 24.9 | 20.9 | 7.9 | 2.2 | 10.0 |
| Total | 179.9 | 195.0 | 211.6 | 226.2 | 239.8 | 248.8 | 68.9 | 1.4 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
| Levels (mboe/d) | Growth (mboe/d) | Growth (% p.a.) | Fuel share (%) | |||||||
| 2021 | 2025 | 2030 | 2035 | 2040 | 2045 | 2021-2045 | 2021-2045 | 2021 | 2045 | |
| Oil | 14.2 | 15.7 | 16.2 | 16.6 | 16.6 | 16.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 20.5 | 21.3 |
| Coal | 40.3 | 39.8 | 37.0 | 33.0 | 29.1 | 26.1 | -14.2 | -1.8 | 58.0 | 33.6 |
| Gas | 5.5 | 6.6 | 7.9 | 8.9 | 9.6 | 9.9 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 7.9 | 12.7 |
| Nuclear | 2.3 | 3.1 | 3.9 | 4.9 | 5.9 | 6.9 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 3.3 | 8.9 |
| Hydro | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 3.3 | 3.8 |
| Biomass | 2.7 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 3.9 | 5.4 |
| Other renewables | 2.3 | 3.4 | 5.5 | 7.4 | 9.0 | 11.0 | 8.8 | 6.8 | 3.3 | 14.2 |
| Total | 69.4 | 73.9 | 76.6 | 77.3 | 77.0 | 77.5 | 8.1 | 0.5 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
| Levels (mboe/d) | Growth (mboe/d) | Growth (% p.a.) | Fuel share (%) | |||||||
| 2021 | 2025 | 2030 | 2035 | 2040 | 2045 | 2021-2045 | 2021-2045 | 2021 | 2045 | |
| Oil | 4.8 | 5.8 | 7.1 | 8.3 | 9.6 | 11.0 | 6.2 | 3.5 | 25.7 | 29.2 |
| Coal | 8.0 | 9.2 | 10.7 | 12.1 | 13.1 | 13.1 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 43.1 | 34.8 |
| Gas | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 2.7 | 5.2 | 6.0 | 10.2 |
| Nuclear | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 6.7 | 1.6 | 3.7 |
| Hydro | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 1.9 |
| Biomass | 3.8 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 20.2 | 10.9 |
| Other renewables | 0.3 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 10.9 | 1.6 | 9.3 |
| Total | 18.6 | 21.7 | 25.8 | 30.1 | 34.2 | 37.7 | 19.1 | 3.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
| Levels (mboe/d) | Growth (mboe/d) | Growth (% p.a.) | Share (%) | |||||||
| 2021 | 2025 | 2030 | 2035 | 2040 | 2045 | 2021-2045 | 2021-2045 | 2021 | 2045 | |
| OECD Americas | 20.1 | 21.5 | 20.6 | 19.1 | 17.5 | 15.9 | -4.2 | -1.0 | 22.8 | 15.8 |
| OECD Europe | 11.6 | 11.9 | 11.1 | 10.1 | 9.1 | 8.2 | -3.4 | -1.4 | 13.1 | 8.1 |
| OECD Asia-Pacific | 6.9 | 6.9 | 6.4 | 5.8 | 5.2 | 4.6 | -2.2 | -1.6 | 7.8 | 4.6 |
| OECD | 38.5 | 40.3 | 38.1 | 35.0 | 31.8 | 28.8 | -9.7 | -1.2 | 43.6 | 28.6 |
| China | 14.2 | 15.7 | 16.2 | 16.6 | 16.6 | 16.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 16.1 | 16.4 |
| India | 4.8 | 5.8 | 7.1 | 8.3 | 9.6 | 11.0 | 6.2 | 3.5 | 5.4 | 11.0 |
| OPEC | 7.9 | 9.1 | 10.1 | 11.0 | 11.6 | 11.9 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 9.0 | 11.9 |
| Other DCs | 17.6 | 19.8 | 21.8 | 23.5 | 25.2 | 26.8 | 9.1 | 1.8 | 19.9 | 26.6 |
| Russia | 3.4 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 3.8 | 3.5 |
| Other Eurasia | 1.9 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 2.1 | 2.1 |
| Non-OECD | 49.8 | 55.8 | 60.8 | 65.1 | 68.7 | 71.9 | 22.0 | 1.5 | 56.4 | 71.4 |
| World | 88.3 | 96.1 | 98.9 | 100.1 | 100.5 | 100.6 | 12.3 | 0.5 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
| Levels (mboe/d) | Growth (mboe/d) | Growth (% p.a.) | Share (%) | |||||||
| 2021 | 2025 | 2030 | 2035 | 2040 | 2045 | 2021-2045 | 2021-2045 | 2021 | 2045 | |
| OECD Americas | 5.7 | 5.0 | 4.2 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 2.4 | -3.4 | -3.6 | 7.7 | 4.1 |
| OECD Europe | 4.1 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.9 | -3.2 | -6.0 | 5.5 | 1.6 |
| OECD Asia-Pacific | 4.6 | 4.4 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 3.2 | -1.3 | -1.4 | 6.1 | 5.5 |
| OECD | 14.4 | 12.9 | 10.8 | 9.1 | 7.7 | 6.5 | -7.9 | -3.3 | 19.3 | 11.2 |
| China | 40.3 | 39.8 | 37.0 | 33.0 | 29.1 | 26.1 | -14.2 | -1.8 | 53.9 | 44.8 |
| India | 8.0 | 9.2 | 10.7 | 12.1 | 13.1 | 13.1 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 10.8 | 22.5 |
| OPEC | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Other DCs | 7.8 | 8.1 | 8.6 | 8.6 | 8.9 | 9.5 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 10.4 | 16.4 |
| Russia | 2.5 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.5 | -1.0 | -2.2 | 3.4 | 2.5 |
| Other Eurasia | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.4 | -0.2 | -0.6 | 2.2 | 2.5 |
| Non-OECD | 60.3 | 61.1 | 59.9 | 57.3 | 54.4 | 51.7 | -8.6 | -0.6 | 80.7 | 88.8 |
| World | 74.7 | 74.0 | 70.7 | 66.4 | 62.1 | 58.2 | -16.5 | -1.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
| Levels (mboe/d) | Growth (mboe/d) | Growth (% p.a.) | Share (%) | |||||||
| 2021 | 2025 | 2030 | 2035 | 2040 | 2045 | 2021-2045 | 2021-2045 | 2021 | 2045 | |
| OECD Americas | 17.7 | 18.2 | 18.4 | 18.7 | 18.8 | 18.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 26.7 | 22.1 |
| OECD Europe | 8.4 | 8.2 | 8.0 | 7.7 | 7.2 | 6.7 | -1.7 | -0.9 | 12.7 | 7.9 |
| OECD Asia-Pacific | 3.6 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | -0.1 | -0.1 | 5.4 | 4.1 |
| OECD | 29.7 | 30.0 | 29.9 | 29.9 | 29.6 | 29.0 | -0.7 | -0.1 | 44.7 | 34.0 |
| China | 5.5 | 6.6 | 7.9 | 8.9 | 9.6 | 9.9 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 8.3 | 11.6 |
| India | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 2.7 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 4.5 |
| OPEC | 8.5 | 9.7 | 10.9 | 11.9 | 12.6 | 12.9 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 12.9 | 15.1 |
| Other DCs | 10.1 | 11.4 | 13.3 | 15.3 | 17.2 | 18.9 | 8.8 | 2.7 | 15.2 | 22.1 |
| Russia | 8.4 | 7.6 | 7.5 | 7.3 | 7.1 | 6.8 | -1.6 | -0.9 | 12.6 | 7.9 |
| Other Eurasia | 3.1 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 4.6 | 4.7 |
| Non-OECD | 36.7 | 40.0 | 45.0 | 49.6 | 53.5 | 56.3 | 19.6 | 1.8 | 55.3 | 66.0 |
| World | 66.4 | 69.9 | 74.9 | 79.5 | 83.0 | 85.3 | 18.9 | 1.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
| Levels (mboe/d) | Growth (mboe/d) | Growth (% p.a.) | Share (%) | |||||||
| 2021 | 2025 | 2030 | 2035 | 2040 | 2045 | 2021-2045 | 2021-2045 | 2021 | 2045 | |
| OECD Americas | 5.0 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 32.7 | 21.4 |
| OECD Europe | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 28.0 | 18.3 |
| OECD Asia-Pacific | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 2.7 | 7.9 | 9.7 |
| OECD | 10.4 | 10.4 | 10.7 | 11.0 | 11.3 | 11.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 68.5 | 49.5 |
| China | 2.3 | 3.1 | 3.9 | 4.9 | 5.9 | 6.9 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 14.9 | 29.5 |
| India | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 6.7 | 1.9 | 6.0 |
| OPEC | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 10.2 | 0.4 | 2.5 |
| Other DCs | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | -0.1 | -1.4 | 2.8 | 1.3 |
| Russia | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 1.4 | 7.3 | 6.7 |
| Other Eurasia | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 2.3 | 4.1 | 4.5 |
| Non-OECD | 4.8 | 5.8 | 7.1 | 8.6 | 10.3 | 11.8 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 31.5 | 50.5 |
| World | 15.2 | 16.3 | 17.8 | 19.6 | 21.7 | 23.3 | 8.1 | 1.8 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
| Levels (mboe/d) | Growth (mboe/d) | Growth (% p.a.) | Share (%) | |||||||
| 2021 | 2025 | 2030 | 2035 | 2040 | 2045 | 2021-2045 | 2021-2045 | 2021 | 2045 | |
| OECD Americas | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 16.8 | 15.1 |
| OECD Europe | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 13.3 | 10.6 |
| OECD Asia-Pacific | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 2.9 | 2.4 |
| OECD | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 33.0 | 28.2 |
| China | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 30.3 | 28.2 |
| India | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 3.4 | 4.3 | 6.9 |
| OPEC | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.4 |
| Other DCs | 1.7 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 2.1 | 23.2 | 27.5 |
| Russia | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 1.0 | 4.6 | 4.2 |
| Other Eurasia | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 1.4 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| Non-OECD | 5.0 | 5.5 | 6.1 | 6.7 | 7.3 | 7.5 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 67.0 | 71.8 |
| World | 7.5 | 8.0 | 8.7 | 9.4 | 10.1 | 10.4 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
| Levels (mboe/d) | Growth (mboe/d) | Growth (% p.a.) | Share (%) | |||||||
| 2021 | 2025 | 2030 | 2035 | 2040 | 2045 | 2021-2045 | 2021-2045 | 2021 | 2045 | |
| OECD Americas | 2.9 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 11.1 | 11.9 |
| OECD Europe | 3.4 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 4.4 | 4.7 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 12.8 | 14.4 |
| OECD Asia-Pacific | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 2.4 |
| OECD | 6.9 | 7.4 | 8.0 | 8.7 | 9.3 | 10.0 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 26.2 | 28.7 |
| China | 2.7 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 10.2 | 12.1 |
| India | 3.8 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 14.4 | 11.8 |
| OPEC | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 9.3 | 8.2 |
| Other DCs | 10.0 | 10.6 | 11.3 | 12.0 | 12.7 | 12.7 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 38.0 | 36.5 |
| Russia | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| Other Eurasia | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 1.4 |
| Non-OECD | 19.4 | 20.5 | 22.0 | 23.3 | 24.4 | 24.9 | 5.5 | 1.0 | 73.8 | 71.3 |
| World | 26.2 | 27.9 | 30.0 | 32.0 | 33.7 | 34.9 | 8.6 | 1.2 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
| Levels (mboe/d) | Growth (mboe/d) | Growth (% p.a.) | Share (%) | |||||||
| 2021 | 2025 | 2030 | 2035 | 2040 | 2045 | 2021-2045 | 2021-2045 | 2021 | 2045 | |
| OECD Americas | 1.3 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 3.7 | 4.7 | 5.8 | 4.6 | 6.6 | 17.0 | 15.2 |
| OECD Europe | 1.7 | 2.4 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 4.5 | 5.1 | 3.4 | 4.6 | 23.3 | 13.3 |
| OECD Asia-Pacific | 0.5 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 7.3 | 6.3 | 6.5 |
| OECD | 3.5 | 4.9 | 7.1 | 9.2 | 11.3 | 13.5 | 10.0 | 5.8 | 46.5 | 35.1 |
| China | 2.3 | 3.4 | 5.5 | 7.4 | 9.0 | 11.0 | 8.8 | 6.8 | 30.4 | 28.8 |
| India | 0.3 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 10.9 | 4.0 | 9.1 |
| OPEC | 0.0 | 0.3 | 1.2 | 2.2 | 3.6 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 23.4 | 0.4 | 12.0 |
| Other DCs | 1.3 | 1.9 | 2.8 | 3.9 | 5.3 | 4.3 | 2.9 | 5.0 | 18.0 | 11.1 |
| Russia | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 18.3 | 0.1 | 1.3 |
| Other Eurasia | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 13.6 | 0.6 | 2.6 |
| Non-OECD | 4.0 | 6.3 | 10.7 | 15.6 | 21.2 | 24.9 | 20.9 | 7.9 | 53.5 | 64.9 |
| World | 7.4 | 11.2 | 17.8 | 24.9 | 32.5 | 38.3 | 30.9 | 7.1 | 100.0 | 100.0 |