For OPEC, it is a great honour to launch the World Oil Outlook (WOO) 2024 in Brazil. The country’s comprehensive and inclusive approach to energy issues has been on display through its G20 presidency in 2024, and will no doubt be central to its hosting of COP30 in 2025. This stance is fully in line with OPEC’s development of its WOO, as well as the Charter of Cooperation between OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, a voluntary framework for dialogue and a platform for multilateralism.
This year’s WOO provides governments, policymakers and people around the world with realistic and sustainable future energy pathways. Central and common realities pervade all pathways: the fact that the world requires more energy in the decades to come, available in a secure, stable and sustainable manner; the imperative of energy access for all; and the need to reduce emissions.
Over the past year, there has been further recognition that the world can only phase in new energy sources at scale when they are genuinely ready, economically competitive, acceptable to consumers and with the right infrastructure in place. Moreover, there is a need to continually recognize the different national circumstances and approaches for all nations, keeping in mind inclusivity, and the principle of ‘common but differentiated responsibilities’.
The WOO 2024, with the Outlook this year extended to 2050, looks to weave together all the various strands of the current debates and discussions on energy. This means understanding the needs and ambitions of every energy consumer around the world, appreciating what each energy source can offer, and finding ways forward that can deliver energy security, energy availability, affordability and emissions reduction. It is not about fixating on one part to the detriment of the others. The world needs to deliver on them all.
The need for more energy comes as economies grow, populations expand and urbanization levels increase. We should also remember the fact that billions of people are playing energy catch up, with too many lacking access to modern energy services, such as basic lighting and clean cooking options, and many more having never owned a car, been on an airplane, or travelled outside of their home country.
Global energy demand in this year’s WOO is set to expand by 24% in the period to 2050, driven by significant expansion in the non-OECD region. The Outlook sees the need for an expansion in all energy sources, with the exception of coal. For oil alone, we see demand reaching over 120 million barrels a day by 2050, with the potential for it to be higher. There is no peak oil demand on the horizon.
What the Outlook underscores is that the fantasy of phasing out oil and gas bears no relation to fact. Combined they make up well over 50% of the energy mix today and are expected to do the same in 2050. A realistic view of demand growth expectations necessitate adequate investments in oil and gas, today, tomorrow, and for many decades into the future.
For oil alone, investment requirements out to 2050 total $17.4 trillion. All policymakers and stakeholders need to work together to ensure a long-term investment-friendly climate, one that works for producers and consumers, as well as developed and developing countries.
At the same time, the WOO also highlights the need to ramp up efforts to reduce emissions, continually improve efficiencies, and introduce lower carbon solutions. In this regard, the oil industry is already playing a role.
At COP28, in OPEC Member Country, the United Arab Emirates, 50 oil and gas companies representing more than 40% of global oil production pledged to reach near-zero upstream methane emissions and end routine flaring in their operations by 2030. The oil industry is also investing in technologies, such as carbon capture utilization and storage, direct air capture, clean hydrogen technologies, and others. The industry is showing that it is possible to reduce emissions, while also producing the oil the world needs.
As the WOO underscores once again, the platform for building a sustainable energy future for all not only comes from stability in energy markets, as pursued by OPEC through the Declaration of Cooperation with non-OPEC producers, but also through teamwork, data transparency and international cooperation.
The WOO 2024 provides a basis for this, underlining the realities on the ground, and the importance of developing pragmatic policies that can help the world navigate the complexities of tomorrow’s energy landscape. Ones that deliver for consumers, producers, and enable societal mobility, economic growth and a reduction in emissions.
I would also like to take this opportunity to thank all those involved in producing this year’s WOO. It is a tremendous achievement, one that everyone should be proud of, and a publication we believe offers valuable insights into the key questions that are central to our shared energy future.
Haitham Al Ghais
Secretary General