Summary

Preliminary data show US crude imports recovered some of the losses seen in the previous month to average 6.3 mb/d in September, while crude exports reached a record high of 4.0 mb/d. US product imports experienced a seasonal decline, dropping 15% m-o-m. Product exports edged slightly higher to 6.3 mb/d.

China’s crude imports recovered partly from a two-month slump in August, averaging 9.5 mb/d. Compared with the previous month, crude imports for the month rose 8%, or 0.7 mb/d. However, compared to the last year, crude inflows were still down by almost 1.0 mb/d or over 9%. The m-o-m increase came amid expectations for a pickup in domestic product demand in 4Q22 and as the potential for product exports increases. Product exports surged to a 14-month high in August, with higher outflows seen across the board, led by gasoil, with support from jet fuel and gasoline.

India’s crude imports fell to a 10-month low of 4.1 mb/d in August, following the strong performance seen over the last four months, but were broadly in line with seasonal levels. Kpler data shows Russia remained the top crude supplier for the third month in a row, but volumes declined from the peak levels seen in June. India’s product exports increased, driven primarily by higher outflows of jet fuel and gasoil, despite increased export duties.

Japan’s crude imports showed a strong performance in August, averaging just under 3.0 mb/d, the highest since March 2020. Inflows rose 0.4 mb/d or 14% m-o-m, supported by summer demand for gasoline and healthy fuel oil demand for power generation. Product imports, including LPG, rose by 9%, driven primarily by healthy seasonal demand for gasoline, fuel oil and naphtha, while product exports jumped 20% m-o-m, led by higher outflows of gasoil, as well as gasoline, jet fuel and kerosene, which outpaced a decline in fuel oil.

Preliminary figures show crude imports into the OECD Europe region remaining high compared with last year’s levels, despite steady m-o-m declines in Russian imports. Product imports are seen stepping up from June levels, supported by increasing inflows of jet fuel, while product exports are seen trending lower up to September, amid a seasonal decline in gasoline outflows.