Summary

Non-OPEC liquids supply (including processing gains) is forecast to grow by 1.9 mb/d in 2022 to average 65.6 mb/d, revised down by 0.2 mb/d compared with the previous assessment. An upward revision to oil production in Latin America was more than offset by downward revisions to Other Eurasia, OECD Europe and OECD Asia Pacific. In addition, there is considerable uncertainty regarding Russia's liquids output this year.

In the US, solid increases in oil and gas rig counts and high fracking activity are expected to support production going forward. However, severe inflationary pressure, coupled with logistical bottlenecks and shortages of material and labour, are posing additional challenges. So far, the hurricane season has not weighed materially on production, but remains a source of uncertainty. Lower-than-expected tight oil production in recent months necessitated a downward revision to the US liquids supply growth forecast for 2022 by 20 tb/d, with output now forecast to grow by 1.1 mb/d y-o-y. The production forecast for Other Eurasia was also revised down, due to lower-than-expected output in Azerbaijan and export terminal disruptions, as well as extended maintenance in Kazakhstan. The main drivers of liquids supply growth for the year are expected to be the US, Canada, China, Guyana and Brazil, while production is expected to decline, mainly in Norway and Thailand.

Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2023 is revised down by 0.2 mb/d and is expected to grow by 1.5 mb/d to average 67.1 mb/d (including 70 tb/d in processing gains). Liquids supply in the OECD countries is forecast to grow by 1.6 mb/d, while the non-OECD region is forecast to decline by 0.1 mb/d. The main drivers of liquids supply growth are expected to be the US, Norway, Brazil, Canada, Kazakhstan and Guyana, whereas oil production is forecast to decline, mainly in Russia and Mexico. Nevertheless, uncertainty about the geopolitical situation in Eastern Europe and US shale production potential remains high.

OPEC NGLs and non-conventional liquids production in 2022 is forecast to grow by 0.1 mb/d to average 5.4 mb/d. For 2023, it is forecast to grow by 50 tb/d to average 5.4 mb/d. OPEC-13 crude oil production in September increased by 146 tb/d m-o-m to average 29.77 mb/d, according to available secondary sources.

Preliminary non-OPEC liquids production in September, including OPEC NGLs, is estimated to have increased m-o-m by 0.8 mb/d to average 71.7 mb/d, up by 2.9 mb/d y-o-y. As a result, preliminary data indicates that the global oil supply in September increased by 0.93 mb/d m-o-m to average 101.5 mb/d, up by 5.43 mb/d y-o-y.