Summary

For 2021, world oil demand is expected to increase by 6.0 mb/d, unchanged from last month’s projections and despite offsetting revisions within the quarters. An upward revision due to positive mobility indicators for OECD countries in 3Q21 was offset by a downward revision to 4Q21, given the risk to oil demand fundamentals stemming from the increase in COVID-19 cases, primarily related to the Delta variant. World oil demand is estimated at 96.7 mb/d in 2021.

In 2022, world oil demand is forecast to rise by 4.2 mb/d y-o-y, revised higher by around 0.9 mb/d compared to last month’s report, as the pace of recovery in oil demand is now assumed to be stronger and mostly taking place in 2022. As vaccination rates rise, the COVID-19 pandemic is expected to be better managed and economic activities and mobility will firmly return to pre-COVID-19 levels. The revisions are based in both the OECD and non-OECD regions, with steady economic developments expected to support the partially delayed recovery in oil demand in various sectors. As a result, the OECD oil demand outlook was revised upward by 0.3 mb/d in 2022 compared to last month’s projection and is projected to increase by 1.8 mb/d y-o-y. In the non-OECD region, oil demand in 2022 is estimated to increase by 2.3 mb/d y-o-y, revised higher by around 0.6 mb/d compared to last month’s estimations, supported by steady economic activities in the main economies, particularly China, India and Other Asia. Additionally, ongoing improvements in vaccination rates and a potential increase in public confidence in managing COVID-19 is anticipated to be more widespread in 2022, further supporting the recovery of oil demand, particularly transportation fuels. World oil demand is estimated at 100.8 mb/d in 2022, exceeding pre-pandemic levels.