Summary

World oil demand growth in 2021 remains unchanged from last month’s report. This is despite the upward revision to GDP growth, as the rising economic recovery is projected to take place mainly in non-oil-intensive sectors. Total global oil demand is estimated to increase by around 6.0 mb/d to 96.6 mb/d. However, some revisions were taken into account in 1Q21 due to slower-than-anticipated demand in OECD Americas and offset by better-than-expected data from non-OECD countries in 2Q21.

In the OECD, oil demand is expected to increase by 2.6 mb/d, around 0.1 mb/d lower than last month’s estimation, and reach 44.6 mb/d. Weaker-than-anticipated demand for gasoline due to mobility limitations in 1Q21 affected overall demand negatively. Similarly, a slower recovery in a number of countries in OECD Asia Pacific due to COVID-19 containment measures reduced demand for transportation fuels. In the
non-OECD, oil demand is expected to increase by 3.4 mb/d, some 0.1 mb/d higher than last month’s report, to reach 51.9 mb/d. Better-than-expected 2Q21 data from the Middle East and Africa supported by recovery in industrial fuels encouraged this upward revision. On the other hand, sluggish mobility data in India necessitated some downward revision to 2Q21 figures, slightly counterbalancing the upward revisions in the other regions.

In 2022, world oil demand is projected to increase by 3.3 mb/d y-o-y, also unchanged from last month’s expectations, as the upward revision to 2022 GDP is assumed to take place mostly in non-oil intensive sectors. Total world oil demand is projected to surpass 100 mb/d in 2H22 and reach 99.9 mb/d on average for 2022. Economic growth is forecast to pick up on the back of massive stimulus packages. Additionally, the COVID-19 pandemic is anticipated to be under control, supported by vaccination programmes and improved treatment, allowing for steadily rising oil demand in both the OECD and non-OECD.

In the OECD, oil demand for next year is estimated to increase by 1.5 mb/d, led by OECD Americas, while OECD Europe and Asia Pacific are projected to rise but remain below 2019 consumption levels. Gasoline, diesel and light distillates are expected to lead oil demand growth in 2022 as miles travelled gradually recover, the industrial sector picks up steam, and amid the ramping up and commissioning of ethane crackers. In the non-OECD, oil demand is anticipated to grow by 1.8 mb/d, led by China, Other Asia and India. However, demand in China and India are projected to outstrip pre-COVID-19 levels, supported by a healthy rise in demand for transportation and industrial fuels. Demand in Other Asia, Latin America and the Middle East is anticipated to be strong, especially in Other Asia, supported by increases in mobility and progressing industrial sector.