The overall economic growth trend over the last several weeks across various economies was mainly balanced, with selective economies seeing improvements and others slowing further. This keeps the 2019 global economic growth estimate unchanged at 3.0%.
With the services sector remaining solid in the US and other important OECD economies, improvements in global trade relations and monetary policies remaining accommodative the 2020 GDP growth forecast was lifted slightly by 0.1 pp to 3.1%. With further developments on the horizon in US-China trade and Brexit, ongoing high debt levels, fiscal imbalances in some key economies, trade-related uncertainties and heightened geopolitical risks still constitute some headwinds. Indeed, the decision taken in December by OPEC and
non-OPEC participating countries in the Declaration of Cooperation to continue striving for a stable and balanced oil market will play a supportive role in maintaining healthy global economic growth.
OECD growth remains at 1.6% for 2019 and is revised up to 1.5% from 1.4% for 2020. The 2019 US economic growth estimate remains at 2.3%, while the ongoing developments have led to the expectation that 2020 US GDP growth will fare slightly better than initially expected at 1.9%, compared to an assessment of 1.8% in the previous month. Euro-zone growth remains at 1.2% for 2019, amid confirmation of slowing 2H19 growth carrying over into the coming year, leaving the 2020 forecast unchanged at 1.0%. The UK’s 2019 estimate remains at 1.1% for 2019 and the forecast was revised up slightly to 1.1% for 2020, in anticipation of rising certainty about Brexit after the clear outcome in the December parliamentary elections. Japan’s 2019 growth estimate was revised up to 1.1%, considering the latest upward revisions of growth for the first three quarters in 2019. Consequently, the 2020 economic growth forecast was revised up as well to 0.7% from 0.6% previously.
In the emerging economies, China’s 2019 growth estimate remains at 6.2% and growth in 2020 remains forecast at 5.9%. India’s 2019 GDP growth is unchanged at 5.5% and at 6.4% for 2020, but given the economic challenges, the developments will need close monitoring. Growth estimates for Brazil and Russia remain unchanged at 1.0% and 1.1% for 2019, but forecasts were revised up to 2.0% and 1.5% for 2020, compared with 1.7% and 1.3% in the previous month, respectively.
| Â | World | OECD | US | Japan | Euro-zone | UK | China | India | ||
| 2019 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 6.2 | 5.5 | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| Change from previous month | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2020 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 5.9 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 1.5 |
| Change from previous month | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| Â | GDP growth rate, % | Consumer price index, % change y-o-y | Current account balance, US$ bn | Government fiscal balance, % of GDP | Net public debt, % of GDP | |||||
| Â | 2019 | 2020 | 2019 | 2020 | 2019 | 2020 | 2019 | 2020 | 2019 | 2020 |
| Brazil | 1.0 | 1.7 | 3.6 | 3.2 | -34.6 | -43.6 | -5.8 | -4.7 | 79.1 | 80.0 |
| Russia | 1.1 | 1.3 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 106.2 | 113.4 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 9.5 | 9.3 |
| India | 5.5 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 4.2 | -52.7 | -57.0 | -3.9 | -3.6 | 44.3 | 44.1 |
| China | 6.2 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 209.5 | 149.7 | -4.3 | -4.5 | 18.4 | 21.6 |