Summary

Non-OPEC oil supply growth in 2018 was revised up by 0.11 mb/d from the previous month’s report and is now estimated to have grown by 2.72 mb/d to average 62.17 mb/d. The adjustment was mainly due to upward revisions in the US, UK, Malaysia and China as well as a higher supply forecast for the rest of 4Q18 for US and Canada. The expected y-o-y growth of 2.24 mb/d in the US along with Canada, Russia, Kazakhstan, Qatar, the UK and Ghana will support non-OPEC supply growth in 2018, while Mexico, Norway and Vietnam will show the largest declines.

Non-OPEC oil supply growth in 2019 was also revised up by 0.08 mb/d to average 2.18 mb/d, mainly due to a re-assessment on production forecast in the US Gulf of Mexico. Total supply is now forecast to average 64.34 mb/d. The US, Brazil, Russia, UK, Australia, Kazakhstan and Ghana are the main drivers for next year’s growth, while Mexico, Norway, Canada, Indonesia and Vietnam are projected to see the largest declines. The 2019 non-OPEC supply forecast is faced with pipeline capacity constraints in North America, both in Texas and Alberta, as well as changes in the intensity of drilling and completion in the US shale industry.

OPEC NGLs and non-conventional liquids are expected to grow by 0.04 mb/d in 2018, unchanged from the previous estimate, to average 4.98 mb/d, and are forecast to grow by 0.09 mb/d in 2019 to average 5.07 mb/d after a m-o-m downward revision by 0.02 mb/d.

In January 2019, OPEC crude oil production decreased by 797 tb/d to average 30.81 mb/d, according to secondary sources.

According to preliminary January data, non-OPEC supply, including OPEC NGLs, decreased by 0.23 mb/d m-o-m to average 68.52 mb/d, higher by 2.86 mb/d y-o-y. As a result, preliminary data indicates that global oil supply decreased in January 2019 by 1.03 mb/d m-o-m to average 99.32 mb/d.