Non-DoC liquids supply (i.e. liquids supply from countries not participating in the DoC) is expected to grow by 1.2 mb/d in 2024 to average 53.1 mb/d, with growth unchanged from last month’s assessment.
US crude and condensate production marginally rose in June, while natural gas liquids (NGLs) production remained above 7 mb/d for the second consecutive month. Accordingly, US liquids supply growth for 2024 is expected at 0.5 mb/d. The other main drivers for expected non-DoC growth in 2024 are Canada and Brazil.
In 2025, non-DoC liquids supply growth is expected at 1.1 mb/d, to average 54.2 mb/d, with growth unchanged from last month’s assessment. Growth is expected to be driven mainly by the US, Brazil, Canada and Norway, while the main decline is expected in Angola.
DoC NGLs and non-conventional liquids are forecast to grow by around 0.1 mb/d to average 8.3 mb/d in 2024, followed by an increase of around 60 tb/d to average 8.4 mb/d in 2025. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional liquids production is expected to increase by around 60 tb/d to average 5.5 mb/d in 2024, while additional growth of 110 tb/d is forecast in 2025 to average 5.6 mb/d.
DoC crude oil production in August decreased by 0.30 mb/d, m-o-m, averaging 40.66 mb/d, as reported by available secondary sources.
| Â | Â | Â | Â Change 2024/23 | |||||
| Non-DoC liquids production | Â 2023 | 1Q24 | 2Q24 | 3Q24 | 4Q24 | 2024 | Growth | % |
| Americas | 26.67 | 26.91 | 27.58 | 27.53 | 27.58 | 27.40 | 0.73 | 2.75 |
| of which US | 20.97 | 21.02 | 21.80 | 21.60 | 21.50 | 21.48 | 0.51 | 2.42 |
| Europe | 3.65 | 3.66 | 3.58 | 3.65 | 3.78 | 3.67 | 0.01 | 0.39 |
| Asia Pacific | 0.45 | 0.46 | 0.44 | 0.46 | 0.43 | 0.45 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Total OECD | 30.77 | 31.03 | 31.59 | 31.64 | 31.80 | 31.52 | 0.75 | 2.43 |
| China | 4.52 | 4.62 | 4.63 | 4.53 | 4.48 | 4.56 | 0.05 | 1.06 |
| India | 0.79 | 0.80 | 0.79 | 0.80 | 0.79 | 0.80 | 0.01 | 1.22 |
| Other Asia | 1.61 | 1.62 | 1.62 | 1.60 | 1.59 | 1.61 | -0.01 | -0.46 |
| Latin America | 6.96 | 7.28 | 7.19 | 7.29 | 7.53 | 7.32 | 0.36 | 5.22 |
| Middle East | 2.02 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.02 | 2.01 | -0.02 | -0.86 |
| Africa | 2.22 | 2.24 | 2.26 | 2.27 | 2.27 | 2.26 | 0.04 | 1.77 |
| Other Eurasia | 0.37 | 0.37 | 0.37 | 0.37 | 0.37 | 0.37 | 0.00 | -0.79 |
| Other Europe | 0.10 | 0.10 | 0.10 | 0.10 | 0.10 | 0.10 | 0.00 | -1.63 |
| Total Non-OECD | 18.60 | 19.03 | 18.96 | 18.96 | 19.16 | 19.03 | 0.43 | 2.32 |
| Total Non-DoC production | 49.37 | 50.06 | 50.56 | 50.60 | 50.95 | 50.55 | 1.18 | 2.39 |
| Processing gains | 2.47 | 2.52 | 2.52 | 2.52 | 2.52 | 2.52 | 0.05 | 2.02 |
| Total Non-DoC liquids production | 51.84 | 52.58 | 53.08 | 53.12 | 53.47 | 53.07 | 1.23 | 2.37 |
| Previous estimate | 51.77 | 52.60 | 53.02 | 52.95 | 53.42 | 53.00 | 1.23 | 2.38 |
| Revision | 0.07 | -0.02 | 0.06 | 0.17 | 0.06 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Â | Â | Â | Â Change 2025/24 | |||||
| Non-DoC liquids production |  2024 | 1Q25 | 2Q25 | 3Q25 | 4Q25 | 2025 | Growth | % |
| Americas | 27.40 | 27.83 | 27.87 | 28.12 | 28.43 | 28.07 | 0.66 | 2.42 |
| of which US | 21.48 | 21.71 | 21.98 | 22.03 | 22.18 | 21.98 | 0.50 | 2.33 |
| Europe | 3.67 | 3.85 | 3.72 | 3.70 | 3.81 | 3.77 | 0.10 | 2.74 |
| Asia Pacific | 0.45 | 0.44 | 0.43 | 0.44 | 0.44 | 0.44 | -0.01 | -1.75 |
| Total OECD | 31.52 | 32.12 | 32.03 | 32.26 | 32.68 | 32.27 | 0.76 | 2.40 |
| China | 4.56 | 4.62 | 4.61 | 4.52 | 4.53 | 4.57 | 0.01 | 0.12 |
| India | 0.80 | 0.79 | 0.80 | 0.81 | 0.81 | 0.80 | 0.01 | 0.98 |
| Other Asia | 1.61 | 1.60 | 1.58 | 1.56 | 1.56 | 1.58 | -0.03 | -1.81 |
| Latin America | 7.32 | 7.48 | 7.53 | 7.61 | 7.74 | 7.59 | 0.27 | 3.62 |
| Middle East | 2.01 | 2.01 | 2.04 | 2.03 | 2.03 | 2.03 | 0.02 | 1.01 |
| Africa | 2.26 | 2.28 | 2.28 | 2.28 | 2.27 | 2.28 | 0.02 | 0.75 |
| Other Eurasia | 0.37 | 0.37 | 0.37 | 0.37 | 0.37 | 0.37 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Other Europe | 0.10 | 0.10 | 0.10 | 0.10 | 0.10 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 2.02 |
| Total Non-OECD | 19.03 | 19.27 | 19.29 | 19.29 | 19.41 | 19.32 | 0.29 | 1.52 |
| Total Non-DoC production | 50.55 | 51.38 | 51.32 | 51.55 | 52.10 | 51.59 | 1.04 | 2.07 |
| Processing gains | 2.52 | 2.58 | 2.58 | 2.58 | 2.58 | 2.58 | 0.06 | 2.38 |
| Total Non-DoC liquids production | 53.07 | 53.96 | 53.90 | 54.13 | 54.68 | 54.17 | 1.10 | 2.08 |
| Previous estimate | 53.00 | 53.90 | 53.83 | 54.06 | 54.61 | 54.10 | 1.10 | 2.08 |
| Revision | 0.07 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
|  |  |  Change |  |   Change |  |  Change |
| Â US liquids | 2023 | 2023/22 | 2024 | 2024/23 | 2025 | 2025/24 |
| Tight crude | 8.42 | 0.65 | 8.75 | 0.33 | 9.09 | 0.34 |
| Gulf of Mexico crude | 1.87 | 0.13 | 1.81 | -0.05 | 1.90 | 0.09 |
| Conventional crude oil | 2.65 | 0.16 | 2.64 | -0.01 | 2.50 | -0.14 |
| Total crude | 12.93 | 0.94 | 13.20 | 0.27 | 13.49 | 0.29 |
| Unconventional NGLs | 5.36 | 0.58 | 5.60 | 0.24 | 5.81 | 0.21 |
| Conventional NGLs | 1.14 | -0.02 | 1.11 | -0.03 | 1.09 | -0.02 |
| Total NGLs | 6.50 | 0.57 | 6.71 | 0.21 | 6.90 | 0.19 |
| Biofuels + Other liquids | 1.54 | 0.10 | 1.57 | 0.03 | 1.59 | 0.02 |
| US total supply | 20.97 | 1.61 | 21.48 | 0.51 | 21.98 | 0.50 |
| Secondary sources | 2022 | 2023 | 4Q23 | 1Q24 | 2Q24 | Jun 24 | Jul 24 | Aug 24 | Change Aug/Jul |
| Algeria | 1,013 | 973 | 957 | 907 | 905 | 906 | 908 | 909 | 2 |
| Congo | 261 | 261 | 251 | 246 | 262 | 260 | 252 | 266 | 13 |
| Equatorial Guinea | 84 | 56 | 53 | 54 | 56 | 53 | 57 | 58 | 0 |
| Gabon | 195 | 204 | 216 | 215 | 210 | 211 | 211 | 217 | 7 |
| IR Iran | 2,554 | 2,859 | 3,154 | 3,179 | 3,238 | 3,250 | 3,273 | 3,277 | 4 |
| Iraq | 4,439 | 4,287 | 4,324 | 4,245 | 4,203 | 4,186 | 4,278 | 4,228 | -50 |
| Kuwait | 2,704 | 2,595 | 2,552 | 2,430 | 2,429 | 2,423 | 2,414 | 2,414 | -1 |
| Libya | 981 | 1,162 | 1,170 | 1,119 | 1,188 | 1,194 | 1,175 | 956 | -219 |
| Nigeria | 1,210 | 1,314 | 1,381 | 1,413 | 1,358 | 1,369 | 1,391 | 1,448 | 57 |
| Saudi Arabia | 10,531 | 9,609 | 8,952 | 9,009 | 8,976 | 8,897 | 9,008 | 8,983 | -25 |
| UAE | 3,066 | 2,950 | 2,906 | 2,926 | 2,934 | 2,936 | 2,953 | 2,958 | 4 |
| Venezuela | 684 | 749 | 774 | 816 | 837 | 848 | 863 | 874 | 12 |
| Total OPEC | 27,722 | 27,019 | 26,690 | 26,558 | 26,595 | 26,535 | 26,784 | 26,588 | -197 |
| Azerbaijan | 560 | 503 | 487 | 477 | 474 | 480 | 488 | 489 | 1 |
| Bahrain | 193 | 182 | 183 | 168 | 175 | 171 | 171 | 182 | 11 |
| Brunei | 75 | 72 | 77 | 82 | 67 | 69 | 80 | 83 | 3 |
| Kazakhstan | 1,489 | 1,597 | 1,606 | 1,614 | 1,555 | 1,579 | 1,565 | 1,450 | -115 |
| Malaysia | 396 | 377 | 378 | 362 | 363 | 362 | 351 | 342 | -8 |
| Mexico | 1,654 | 1,657 | 1,633 | 1,615 | 1,599 | 1,596 | 1,590 | 1,608 | 18 |
| Oman | 850 | 819 | 807 | 772 | 765 | 766 | 765 | 770 | 4 |
| Russia | 9,771 | 9,574 | 9,491 | 9,426 | 9,220 | 9,115 | 9,089 | 9,059 | -29 |
| Sudan | 62 | 54 | 47 | 34 | 24 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 1 |
| South Sudan | 144 | 146 | 153 | 113 | 65 | 63 | 53 | 59 | 6 |
| Total Non-OPEC DoC | 15,193 | 14,980 | 14,862 | 14,662 | 14,307 | 14,226 | 14,175 | 14,068 | -108 |
| Total DoC | 42,915 | 41,999 | 41,552 | 41,220 | 40,902 | 40,761 | 40,959 | 40,655 | -304 |
| Direct communication | 2022 | 2023 | 4Q23 | 1Q24 | 2Q24 | Jun 24 | Jul 24 | Aug 24 | Change Aug/Jul |
| Algeria | 1,020 | 973 | 958 | 907 | 905 | 906 | 909 | 910 | 1 |
| Congo | 262 | 271 | 259 | 252 | 260 | 259 | 257 | 270 | 13 |
| Equatorial Guinea | 81 | 55 | 53 | 53 | 60 | 58 | 57 | .. | .. |
| Gabon | 191 | 223 | 234 | .. | .. | .. | .. | .. | .. |
| IR Iran | .. | .. | .. | .. | .. | .. | .. | .. | .. |
| Iraq | 4,453 | 4,118 | 4,123 | 3,957 | 3,862 | 3,834 | 3,993 | 3,904 | -89 |
| Kuwait | 2,707 | 2,590 | 2,548 | 2,413 | 2,413 | 2,413 | 2,413 | 2,413 | 0 |
| Libya | .. | 1,189 | 1,191 | 1,149 | .. | .. | .. | .. | .. |
| Nigeria | 1,138 | 1,187 | 1,260 | 1,327 | 1,270 | 1,276 | 1,307 | 1,352 | 45 |
| Saudi Arabia | 10,591 | 9,606 | 8,901 | 8,979 | 8,937 | 8,830 | 8,941 | 8,992 | 51 |
| UAE | 3,064 | 2,944 | 2,892 | 2,919 | 2,928 | 2,935 | 2,933 | 2,935 | 2 |
| Venezuela | 716 | 783 | 796 | 864 | 904 | 922 | 928 | 927 | 0 |
| Total OPEC | .. | .. | .. | .. | .. | .. | .. | .. | .. |