Summary

The world oil demand growth forecast for 2024 is revised down slightly by a minor 80 tb/d from the previous month’s assessment mainly to reflect data received year to date. Global oil demand growth in 2024 now stands at about 2.0 mb/d, y-o-y, which remains well above the historical average of 1.4 mb/d seen before the COVID-19 pandemic.

In terms of regions, OECD oil demand is expected to grow by over 0.1 mb/d in 2024, with OECD Americas accounting for the entire oil demand growth. In the non-OECD, oil demand is expected to increase by more than 1.8 mb/d, y-o-y, driven mostly by China with support from Other Asia, India, the Middle East, and Latin America. Total world oil demand is anticipated to reach 105.6 mb/d in 4Q24, averaging 104.2 mb/d in 2024, bolstered by strong air travel demand and road mobility, including trucking, as well as healthy industrial, construction and agricultural activities in non-OECD countries. Similarly, refinery capacity additions in non-OECD countries – mostly in China and the Middle East – are also expected to contribute to oil demand growth. The global growth forecast is subject to uncertainties, including global economic developments.

For 2025, global oil demand growth is forecast at a robust 1.7 mb/d, y-o-y, revised also down only slightly from the previous month’s assessment. Demand in the OECD is expected to grow by 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, while demand in the non-OECD is forecast to expand by 1.6 mb/d.