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September 2024
Feature Article: Review of world economic developments
September 2024
Feature Article: Review of world economic developments

Commodity markets

Summary

The movement of commodity price indices was mixed for a fourth consecutive month in August but was heavily skewed towards the downside. The energy, base metal and other mineral price indices experienced declines, while the precious metal index advanced for a second consecutive month.

In the futures market, sentiment in August was cautious as combined money managers' net length and open interest decreased. Nonetheless, gold saw an increase in net length over the same period, underscoring the sentiment towards risk aversion.

Commodity prices were under pressure throughout the month on concerns over global macroeconomic uncertainties, particularly in China and the US. Nonetheless, they received some support from seasonal demand and Supply constraints. Moreover, the decline of the US dollar against the backdrop of expectations for US interest rate cuts provided more upside support to commodity prices.

 
 
 

Table 2 - 1

Energy prices (Note: Energy index refers to World Bank commodity index 2010 = 100.}
    Monthly average % changes Year-to-date
 Commodity Unit Jun 24 Jul 24 Aug 24 Aug 24/Jul 24 Aug 24/Aug 23 2023 2024
Energy Index 103.8 106.0 102.6 -3.2 -5.6 105.5 104.0
Coal, Australia US$/boe 12.9 13.1 13.9 6.0 -4.5 17.9 12.8
Crude oil, average US$/b 81.2 83.3 78.1 -6.2 -7.8 78.8 81.7
Natural gas, US US$/boe 13.6 11.2 10.8 -4.1 -23.0 13.2 11.3
Natural gas, Europe US$/boe 58.8 56.0 66.9 19.6 10.6 71.2 53.5
 

Table 2 - 2

Based metal prices (Note: Non-energy index and based metal index refer to World Bank commodity indices 2010 = 100.}
    Monthly averages % changes Year-to-date
Commodity Unit Jun 24 Jul 24 Aug 24 Aug 24/Jul 24 Aug 24/Aug 23 2023 2024
Non-energy Index 114.2 111.1 109.0 -1.9 1.3 111.0 111.2
Base metal Index 119.2 114.6 111.6 -2.6 6.1 111.4 113.0
Copper US$/mt 9,675 9,416 8,996 -4.5 7.5 8,651 9,143
Aluminium US$/mt 2,506 2,359 2,352 -0.3 9.6 2,295 2,366
Nickel US$/mt 17,546 16,389 16,335 -0.3 -20.2 23,376 17,269
Lead US$/mt 2,156 2,111 2,001 -5.2 -7.3 2,122 2,112
Zinc US$/mt 2,818 2,791 2,724 -2.4 13.0 2,730 2,677
Iron Ore US$/mt 107 109 100 -8.1 -6.1 118 114
 

Table 2 - 3

Precious metal prices (Note: Precious metals index refers to World Bank commodity index 2010 = 100.}
    Monthly average % changes Year-to-date
 Commodity Unit Jun 24 Jul 24 Aug 24 Aug 24/Jul 24 Aug 24/Aug 23 2023 2024
Precious metals Index 177.6 182.3 185.6 1.8 27.3 146.9 170.8
Gold US$/Oz 2,326 2,398 2,470 3.0 28.7 1,934 2,262
Silver US$/Oz 29.6 29.8 28.5 -4.2 21.7 23.5 26.9
Platinum US$/Oz 985 979 945 -3.4 2.2 993 949
 

Table 2 - 4

Select other mineral prices (Note: Select other minerals index refers to OPEC price index 2022 = 100.)
    Monthly averages Unit Year-to-date
Commodity Unit Jun 24 Jul 24 Aug 24 Aug 24/Jul 24 Aug 24/Aug 23 2023 2024
Other minerals Index 38.6 37.4 35.6 -4.7 -41.7 76.1 39.2
Cobalt US$/mt 26,840 26,465 25,231 -4.7 -23.7 35,345 27,436
Graphite US$/mt 485 485 484 -0.2 -21.7 723 506
Lithium US$/mt 12,478 11,255 10,518 -6.5 -68.6 49,973 12,229
 

Table 2 - 5

CFTC data on non-commercial positions, 1,000 contracts
   Open interest Long Short Net Length
Selected commodity  Jul 24 Aug 24 Aug24/Jul 24 Jul 24 Aug 24 Jul 24 Aug 24 Jul 24 % OI Aug 24 % OI Aug 24/Jul 24
Crude oil 2,234 2,256 1.0% 266 217 24 29 242 11 189 8 -22.1%
Natural gas 1,581 1,563 -1.1% 226 225 276 281 -50 -3 -56 -4 11.2%
Gold 869 857 -1.4% 221 235 21 15 200 23 220 26 9.9%
Copper 334 295 -11.7% 90 61 62 49 29 9 12 4 -58.1%
Total 5,017 4,971 -0.9% 803 738 383 374 420 39 364 34 -13.3%