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2025
March 2025
Feature Article: Assessment of the global economy
February 2025
Feature Article: The impact of monetary policies on the oil market
January 2025
Feature Article: Oil market outlook for 2026
2024
December 2024
Feature Article: Review of 2024 and outlook for 2025
November 2024
Feature Article: Global oil inventory developments
October 2024
Feature Article: Winter oil market outlook
September 2024
Feature Article: Review of world economic developments
August 2024
Feature Article: Crude and product price movements in 1H24
July 2024
Feature Article: Monetary policies impact on oil market
June 2024
Feature Article: World oil market prospects for the second half of 2024
May 2024
Feature Article: Non-Declaration of Cooperation (Non-DoC) oil supply developments
April 2024
Feature Article: Global oil demand in summer months of 2024
March 2024
Feature Article: Assessment of the global economy
February 2024
Feature Article: Review of global oil demand trends
January 2024
Feature Article: Oil market outlook for 2025
2023
December 2023
Feature Article: Review of 2023 and outlook for 2024
November 2023
Feature Article: Global oil market fundamentals remain strong despite exaggerated negative sentiments
October 2023
Feature Article: Winter oil market outlook
September 2023
Feature Article: A review of world economic developments
August 2023
Feature Article: Crude and product price movements
July 2023
Feature Article: The outlook for the oil market in 2024
June 2023
Feature Article: World oil market prospects for the second half of 2023
May 2023
Feature Article: Non-OPEC oil supply development
April 2023
Feature Article: Summer oil market outlook
March 2023
Feature Article: Assessment of the global economy
February 2023
Feature Article: Review of global oil demand trend
January 2023
Feature Article: Monetary policies and their impact on the oil market
2022
December 2022
Review of 2022; outlook for 2023
November 2022
Global oil inventory developments
October 2022
Winter oil market outlook
September 2022
Review of the world economic development
August 2022
Crude and product price movements
July 2022
The outlook for the oil market in 2023
June 2022
World oil market prospects for the second half of 2022
May 2022
Non-OPEC oil supply development
April 2022
Summer Oil Market Outlook
March 2022
Assessment of the global economy
February 2022
Review of global oil demand trend
January 2022
Monetary policies and their impact on the oil market
2021
December 2021
Review of 2021; outlook for 2022
November 2021
Development of global oil inventories
October 2021
Winter oil market outlook
September 2021
Assessment of the global economy in 2021 and 2022
August 2021
Crude and product price movements
July 2021
The outlook for the oil market in 2022
June 2021
World oil market prospects for the second half of 2021
May 2021
Non-OPEC oil supply development
April 2021
Summer oil market outlook
March 2021
Assessment of the global economy
February 2021
Review of global oil demand trend
January 2021
Monetary policies and their impact on the oil market
2020
December 2020
Review of 2020, outlook for 2021
November 2020
Development of global oil inventories
October 2020
Winter oil market outlook
September 2020
Assessment of the global economy in 2020
August 2020
Crude and product price movements
July 2020
The outlook for the oil market in 2021
June 2020
World oil market prospects for the second half of 2020
May 2020
Non-OPEC oil supply development
April 2020
Summer oil market outlook
March 2020
Assessment of the global economy
February 2020
Review of global oil demand trend
January 2020
Monetary policies and their impact on the oil market
2019
December 2019
Review of 2019; outlook for 2020
November 2019
Recent developments in global oil inventories
October 2019
Winter oil market outlook
September 2019
Review of global economic development
August 2019
Crude and products price movement
July 2019
Oil market outlook for 2020
June 2019
World oil market prospects for the second half of 2019
May 2019
Non-OPEC oil supply development
April 2019
Summer oil market outlook
March 2019
Review of global economic development
February 2019
Review of global oil demand trend
January 2019
Monetary policies and their impact on the oil market
2018
December 2018
Feature article: Review of 2018; outlook for 2019
November 2018
Recent developments in global oil inventories
September 2018
Feature article: Review of global economic development
August 2018
Crude and product price movements
July 2018
Oil Market Outlook for 2019
June 2018
World oil market prospects for the second half of 2018
May 2018
Non-OPEC oil supply development
April 2018
Summer oil market outlook
March 2018
Assessment of the global economy
February 2018
Review of recent global oil demand trends
January 2018
Monetary policies and their impact on the oil market
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September 2024
Feature Article: Review of world economic developments
September 2024
Feature Article: Review of world economic developments

Feature article

Summary

Review of world economic developments

Global economic growth in 1H24 proved to be resilient, and this stable growth pattern extended into 3Q24, bolstered by strong consumer spending, particularly in the services sector. This positive trend has persisted despite ongoing uncertainties over interest rates, trade negotiations, and geopolitical developments. As a result, global economic growth is expected at a healthy 3.0% for 2024, followed by 2.9% for 2025 (Graph 1).

Although some downside risks exist, the momentum in non-OECD economies observed since early 2024, coupled with a rebound in OECD countries, could provide additional upside for global economic growth and carry over into 2025. Moreover, major central banks are expected to shift towards more accommodative monetary policies by the end of 2024 and throughout 2025, particularly in the US, the Eurozone, and the UK, which will render further support to near-term global growth.

Indeed, the trajectory of monetary policies will depend on inflationary developments and potential shifts in the focus of central banks towards supporting economic growth, particularly in advanced economies.

Within the OECD, steady 1H24 momentum in US private household consumption is expected to sustain stable near-term growth projections. In Japan, despite some weakness in 1Q24, a strong rebound in 2Q24 and anticipated continued improvements in domestic demand and external trade are set to support growth for the remainder of 2024 and into 2025. In the Eurozone, after slightly better-than-expected growth in 1H24, a continued expansionary momentum is forecast for 2H24 and 2025.

In the non-OECD, as inflation falls in India and the agricultural sector recovers from last year’s weak monsoon season, strong growth continues, though at a slower pace compared to 1Q24. China's export and manufacturing sectors remain resilient, despite ongoing property market challenges. Meanwhile, Brazil and Russia show further upside potential, though tight monetary policies may constrain growth dynamics.

Looking ahead, a key factor influencing the global economic trajectory, will be the balance between the contributions from the industrial and services sectors. Thus far in 2024, the typically robust industrial sector in advanced economies has lagged behind global growth momentum. With the significant contribution from the services sector expected to slightly retract towards the end of the year and into 2025, the industrial sector is expected to close the output gap, resulting in a stable growth into 2025.

In light of this economic growth trend, oil demand in 2024 is forecast to grow by a healthy 2.0 mb/d, y-o-y, well above the pre-COVID average. It is expected to continue at a solid pace of 1.7 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2025.

Within regions, the OECD is forecast to grow by 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, in both 2024 and 2025. Meanwhile, the non-OECD is expected to see a more substantial increase of about 1.9 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2024, followed by continued growth of 1.6 mb/d in 2025.