In September, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value declined by $4.82/b, or 6.1%, m-o-m, to average $73.59/b. The ICE Brent's front-month contract fell by $6.01, or 7.6%, m-o-m, to average $72.87/b. The NYMEX WTI front-month contract dropped by $6.06, or 8.0%, m-o-m, to average $69.37/b. GME Oman's front-month contract fell by $4.63, or 6.0%, m-o-m, to average $72.91/b. The front-month ICE Brent-NYMEX WTI spread rose by 5¢, m-o-m, to average $3.50/b. The oil futures forward curves flattened in September, but remained in backwardation. Money managers turned more negative on oil futures, shifting to a net short in the ICE Brent contract.

The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged from last month’s assessment at 3.0% for 2024 and 2.9% for 2025. The US economic growth forecast for 2024 is revised up slightly to 2.5%, reflecting upward revisions to official 1H24 growth numbers. For 2025, US growth remains unchanged at 1.9%. Japan’s economic growth forecast for 2024 is revised down slightly to 0.1%, reflecting minor downward revisions to official 1H24 growth numbers, while the 2025 forecast remains at 0.9%. For the Eurozone, growth forecasts for 2024 and 2025 remain unchanged at 0.8% and 1.2%, respectively. China’s economic growth forecasts remain unchanged at 4.9% for 2024 and 4.6% for 2025. India’s economic growth forecasts remain unchanged at 6.8% for 2024 and 6.3% for 2025. The economic growth forecast for Brazil is revised up to 2.5% for 2024, on the back of ongoing robust dynamics, but remains at 1.9% for 2025. Russia’s economic growth forecasts are unchanged at 3.2% for 2024 and 1.5% for 2025.

The global oil demand growth forecast for 2024 is revised down by 106 tb/d to 1.9 mb/d, y-o-y, still well above the historical average of 1.4 mb/d seen before the COVID-19 pandemic. The adjustment reflects actual data received, combined with slightly lower expectations for some regions. OECD oil demand is expected to grow by more than 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2024, with the OECD Americas driving growth. Non-OECD oil demand is forecast to grow by 1.8 mb/d, y-o-y, this year. The forecast for world oil demand growth in 2025 is also revised down by 102 tb/d to 1.6 mb/d, y-o-y. Non-OECD oil demand is set to drive next year’s growth, increasing by about 1.5 mb/d, y-o-y, led by contributions from China, Other Asia, the Middle East, and India. The OECD demand is forecast to expand by about 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, with OECD Americas providing most of the contribution.

Non-DoC liquids supply (i.e. liquids supply from countries not participating in the DoC) is expected to grow by 1.2 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2024, unchanged from last month’s assessment. The main growth drivers are expected to be the US, Canada, Brazil and China. The non-DoC liquids supply growth forecast for 2025 is also unchanged at 1.1 mb/d, y-o-y. Growth is anticipated to be mainly driven by the US, Brazil, Canada, and Norway. Natural gas liquids (NGLs) and non-conventional liquids from countries participating in the DoC is forecast to grow by about 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, to average 8.3 mb/d in 2024, followed by an increase of about 70 tb/d, y-o-y, to reach 8.4 mb/d in 2025. Crude oil production by the countries participating in the DoC decreased by 0.56 mb/d in September compared with the previous month, averaging about 40.10 mb/d, as reported by available secondary sources.

Refinery margins in September declined across regions, as high product availability continued to weigh on product markets with most losses stemming from gasoline and middle distillates. In the USGC, the combination of the end of the summer season and the strong refinery runs witnessed in the previous month led to weakness across the barrel. Despite a decline in total US product inventories, product markets remained well supplied, and product margins moved lower, particularly for gasoline, which exhibited the strongest m-o-m drop across the barrel. In Northwest Europe, closed arbitrage for gasoline shipments, robust diesel imports and weak air travel suppressed refining economics despite notable naphtha and fuel oil strength as demand for both products increased during the month. In Singapore, all products showed a decline in crack spreads, m-o-m, except naphtha. The recent release of Chinese product export quotas contributed to pressure on the already oversupplied region, amid strong product flows from the Middle East, particularly for gasoil. A healthy naphtha petrochemical intake prevented steeper losses in the Southeast Asian refining margins.

Dirty spot freight rates for VLCCs and Suezmax experienced an improved performance in September, while Aframax rates moved lower. On the Middle East-to-East route, VLCC spot freight rates rose by 6%, m-o-m, in September, while rates on the West Africa-to-East route gained 4% over the same period. In the Suezmax market, rates on the US Gulf Coast-to-Europe route edged up by 2%, m-o-m. Aframax rates on the Caribbean-to-US East Cost route dropped by 16%, m-o-m, while the rates on the cross-Med route declined by 12%, m-o-m. Despite the mixed m-o-m performance, rates for all classes in September were higher compared to the same month last year. In the clean market, spot freight rates declined, m-o-m, on all monitored routes, except for the Middle East-to-East, which rose by 10%, m-o-m.

Preliminary weekly data shows US crude exports in September remaining just under 4 mb/d for the second month in a row. US crude imports picked up from a relatively weak performance in the previous month to average 6.6 mb/d. US product imports fell to the lowest level since 1997 amid declines in gasoline, jet fuel and other product categories. US product exports remain close to a record high at 6.9 mb/d. Preliminary estimates point to OECD Europe crude imports declining further in September, amid seasonal refinery maintenance in the region, while product imports were steady, m-o-m, supported by increased flows from the US. Japan's crude imports recovered in August to reach a four-month high of 2.3 mb/d. Japan’s product imports increased for the second month in a row in August, averaging 911 tb/d, lifted by higher inflows of naphtha, jet fuel and gasoline. China’s crude imports rebounded by 16% m-o-m in August to average 11.6 mb/d but were still down 7% compared to the same month last year. Product imports into China reached a three-month high of 2.3 mb/d, supported by higher inflows of other products and naphtha, which offset a sharp drop in LPG. India’s crude imports began to pick up again in August, following seasonal declines, gaining 6%, y-o-y. India’s product imports and exports were both about 2% lower, m-o-m.

Preliminary August 2024 data shows total OECD commercial oil stocks down by 8.4 mb, m-o-m. At 2,828 mb, they were 157 mb below the 2015–2019 average. Within the components, crude and product stocks fell by 6.5 mb and 1.9 mb, m-o-m, respectively. OECD commercial crude stocks stood at 1,319 mb. This is 128 mb less than the 2015–2019 average. OECD total product stocks stood at 1,511 mb. This is 29 mb below the 2015–2019 average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell in August by 0.1 days, m-o-m, to stand at 61.3 days. This is 1.8 days less than the 2015–2019 average.

Demand for DoC crude (i.e. crude from countries participating in the Declaration of Cooperation) is revised down by 0.1 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment to stand at 42.8 mb/d in 2024, which is around 0.6 mb/d higher than the estimate for 2023. Demand for DoC crude in 2025 is revised down by 0.2 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment to stand at 43.2 mb/d, around 0.5 mb/d higher than the estimate for 2024.