In February, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) fell by $2.57, or 3.2%, m-o-m, to average $76.81/b. The ICE Brent front-month contract declined by $3.40, or 4.3%, m-o-m, to average $74.95/b, and NYMEX WTI front-month contract fell by $3.89, or 5.2%, m-o-m, to average $71.21/b. The GME Oman front-month contract fell by $2.94, or 3.7%, m-o-m, to average $77.28/b. The ICE Brent-NYMEX WTI first-month spread widened by 49¢, m-o-m, to average $3.74/b. The market structure of all major crude benchmarks, ICE Brent, NYMEX WTI and GME Oman, flattened compared with the previous month, but the forward curves remained in backwardation. Hedge funds and other money managers closed a large volume of bullish positions in ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI, and sharply raised NYMEX WTI short positions to the highest in more than a year. This fuelled volatility and accelerated declines in oil futures prices.

The world economic growth forecasts remain unchanged at 3.1% for 2025 and 3.2% for 2026. The US economic growth forecasts are unchanged at 2.4% for 2025 and 2.3% for 2026. Following a rebound in 4Q24, Japan’s 2025 economic growth forecast is revised up slightly to 1.2%, followed by an unchanged growth of 1.0% in 2026. The Eurozone’s economic growth forecasts for both 2025 and 2026 are unchanged at 0.9% and 1.1%, respectively. China’s economic growth forecast for 2025 remains at 4.7% and 4.6% in 2026. India’s economic growth forecasts remain at 6.5% for both 2025 and 2026. Brazil’s economic growth forecasts remain at 2.3% in 2025 and 2.5% in 2026. Russia’s economic growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 remain unchanged at 1.9% and 1.5%, respectively.

The world economic growth forecasts remain unchanged at 3.1% for 2025 and 3.2% for 2026. The US economic growth forecasts are unchanged at 2.4% for 2025 and 2.3% for 2026. Following a rebound in 4Q24, Japan’s 2025 economic growth forecast is revised up slightly to 1.2%, followed by an unchanged growth of 1.0% in 2026. The Eurozone’s economic growth forecasts for both 2025 and 2026 are unchanged at 0.9% and 1.1%, respectively. China’s economic growth forecast for 2025 remains at 4.7% and 4.6% in 2026. India’s economic growth forecasts remain at 6.5% for both 2025 and 2026. Brazil’s economic growth forecasts remain at 2.3% in 2025 and 2.5% in 2026. Russia’s economic growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 remain unchanged at 1.9% and 1.5%, respectively.

Non-DoC liquids supply (i.e., liquids supply from countries not participating in the Declaration of Cooperation) is forecast to grow by 1.0 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2025, unchanged from last month’s assessment. The main growth drivers are expected to be the US, Brazil, Canada, and Norway. Non-DoC liquids supply growth in 2026 also remains unchanged at 1.0 mb/d, mainly driven by the US, Brazil and Canada. Meanwhile, natural gas liquids (NGLs) and non-conventional liquids from countries participating in the DoC are forecast to grow by 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2025, to average 8.4 mb/d, followed by an increase of about 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2026, to average 8.5 mb/d. Crude oil production by the countries participating in the DoC increased by 363 tb/d in February, m-o-m, averaging about 41.01 mb/d, as reported by available secondary sources.

In February, refinery margins in all reported trading hubs increased with a decline in feedstock prices, while rising offline capacity led to lower product output in the Northern Hemisphere. On the US Gulf Coast (USGC), the weather-related refinery shut-ins witnessed in January translated into strength across the barrel in February, with naphtha and gasoline representing the main drivers for the m-o-m rise. In Rotterdam, the increase in refining economics was the most pronounced, with solid gains nearly evenly distributed across the barrel as product availability decreased. Meanwhile, refining margins in Singapore showed a slight increase as lower naphtha inflows, limited gasoline supply and high-sulphur fuel supply concerns exerted upward pressure on their respective crack spreads.

Dirty spot freight rates showed gains across almost all monitored routes in February. VLCC rates in particular rose as a fresh round of sanctions resulted in efforts to bring in alternative supplies. VLCC spot freight rates on the Middle East-to-East route jumped by 7%, while rates on the West Africa-to-East route rose by 5%, m-o-m. Some of the gains filtered down to the Suezmax market, with spot freight rates on the West Africa-to-USGC route showing a 20% increase, m-o-m. In the Aframax market, cross-Med spot freight rates rose by 9%, m-o-m, supported by a tightening of non-sanctioned vessel supply and an uptick in demand. In the clean tanker market, spot freight rates East of Suez rose by 2% on average, while West of Suez rates increased by 12%, amid limited vessel availability in the region.

In February, US crude imports fell below 6 mb/d, while US crude exports increased to remain above 4 mb/d. US product imports stood below the range of the last five years, while US product exports were broadly stable at the top of the range. For OECD Europe, preliminary estimates indicate crude imports were higher both m-o-m and y-o-y in February. Japan's crude imports rose for the third-straight month in January, averaging 2.7 mb/d, representing a gain of over 5%, m-o-m, amid support from persistently cold weather. Crude imports into Japan were 10% higher, y-o-y, representing the first y-o-y gain in 14 months. Preliminary estimates indicate that China’s crude imports averaged 10.0 mb/d in January, a drop of 1.3 mb/d, or more than 11%, m-o-m. Preliminary customs data shows China’s aggregate crude imports for January–February averaged 10.4 mb/d. China’s product imports declined in January, largely due to lower inflows of LPG. Meanwhile, India's crude imports averaged 4.9 mb/d in January, an increase of 3%, m-o-m. Products inflows into India remained unchanged, averaging 1.2 mb/d, as declines in LPG and naphtha were broadly offset by higher outflows of fuel oil and other fuels.

Preliminary data for January 2024 shows total OECD commercial oil stocks up by 1.0 mb, m-o-m. At 2,738 mb, they were 188.1 mb below the 2015–2019 average. Within the components, crude stocks went up by 16.8 mb, while products stocks fell by 15.9 mb, m-o-m. OECD commercial crude stocks stood at 1,298 mb, which is 132.9 mb less than the 2015–2019 average. OECD total product stocks stood at 1,440 mb, some 55.2 mb below the 2015–2019 average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 0.3 days, m-o-m, in January to stand at 60.7 days, which is 1.3 days lower than the 2015–2019 average.

Demand for DoC crude (i.e., crude from countries participating in the Declaration of Cooperation) remains unchanged from the previous assessment to stand at 42.6 mb/d in 2025. This is around 0.3 mb/d higher than the estimate for 2024. Demand for DoC crude in 2026 also remains unchanged from the previous assessment to stand at 42.9 mb/d. This is around 0.3 mb/d higher than the 2025 forecast.