Chapters
Oil market highlights
Feature article
Crude oil price movements
Commodity markets
World economy
World oil demand
World oil supply
Product markets and refinery operations
Tanker market
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Commercial Stock Movements
Balance of supply and demand
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Archive
2025
January 2025
Feature Article: Oil market outlook for 2026
2024
December 2024
Feature Article: Review of 2024 and outlook for 2025
November 2024
Feature Article: Global oil inventory developments
October 2024
Feature Article: Winter oil market outlook
September 2024
Feature Article: Review of world economic developments
August 2024
Feature Article: Crude and product price movements in 1H24
July 2024
Feature Article: Monetary policies impact on oil market
June 2024
Feature Article: World oil market prospects for the second half of 2024
May 2024
Feature Article: Non-Declaration of Cooperation (Non-DoC) oil supply developments
April 2024
Feature Article: Global oil demand in summer months of 2024
March 2024
Feature Article: Assessment of the global economy
February 2024
Feature Article: Review of global oil demand trends
January 2024
Feature Article: Oil market outlook for 2025
2023
December 2023
Feature Article: Review of 2023 and outlook for 2024
November 2023
Feature Article: Global oil market fundamentals remain strong despite exaggerated negative sentiments
October 2023
Feature Article: Winter oil market outlook
September 2023
Feature Article: A review of world economic developments
August 2023
Feature Article: Crude and product price movements
July 2023
Feature Article: The outlook for the oil market in 2024
June 2023
Feature Article: World oil market prospects for the second half of 2023
May 2023
Feature Article: Non-OPEC oil supply development
April 2023
Feature Article: Summer oil market outlook
March 2023
Feature Article: Assessment of the global economy
February 2023
Feature Article: Review of global oil demand trend
January 2023
Feature Article: Monetary policies and their impact on the oil market
2022
December 2022
Review of 2022; outlook for 2023
November 2022
Global oil inventory developments
October 2022
Winter oil market outlook
September 2022
Review of the world economic development
August 2022
Crude and product price movements
July 2022
The outlook for the oil market in 2023
June 2022
World oil market prospects for the second half of 2022
May 2022
Non-OPEC oil supply development
April 2022
Summer Oil Market Outlook
March 2022
Assessment of the global economy
February 2022
Review of global oil demand trend
January 2022
Monetary policies and their impact on the oil market
2021
December 2021
Review of 2021; outlook for 2022
November 2021
Development of global oil inventories
October 2021
Winter oil market outlook
September 2021
Assessment of the global economy in 2021 and 2022
August 2021
Crude and product price movements
July 2021
The outlook for the oil market in 2022
June 2021
World oil market prospects for the second half of 2021
May 2021
Non-OPEC oil supply development
April 2021
Summer oil market outlook
March 2021
Assessment of the global economy
February 2021
Review of global oil demand trend
January 2021
Monetary policies and their impact on the oil market
2020
December 2020
Review of 2020, outlook for 2021
November 2020
Development of global oil inventories
October 2020
Winter oil market outlook
September 2020
Assessment of the global economy in 2020
August 2020
Crude and product price movements
July 2020
The outlook for the oil market in 2021
June 2020
World oil market prospects for the second half of 2020
May 2020
Non-OPEC oil supply development
April 2020
Summer oil market outlook
March 2020
Assessment of the global economy
February 2020
Review of global oil demand trend
January 2020
Monetary policies and their impact on the oil market
2019
December 2019
Review of 2019; outlook for 2020
November 2019
Recent developments in global oil inventories
October 2019
Winter oil market outlook
September 2019
Review of global economic development
August 2019
Crude and products price movement
July 2019
Oil market outlook for 2020
June 2019
World oil market prospects for the second half of 2019
May 2019
Non-OPEC oil supply development
April 2019
Summer oil market outlook
March 2019
Review of global economic development
February 2019
Review of global oil demand trend
January 2019
Monetary policies and their impact on the oil market
2018
December 2018
Feature article: Review of 2018; outlook for 2019
November 2018
Recent developments in global oil inventories
September 2018
Feature article: Review of global economic development
August 2018
Crude and product price movements
July 2018
Oil Market Outlook for 2019
June 2018
World oil market prospects for the second half of 2018
May 2018
Non-OPEC oil supply development
April 2018
Summer oil market outlook
March 2018
Assessment of the global economy
February 2018
Review of recent global oil demand trends
January 2018
Monetary policies and their impact on the oil market
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Summary

Crude Oil Price Movements

In January, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) increased by $6.31, or 8.6%, m-o-m, to average $79.38/b. The ICE Brent front-month contract rose $5.22, or 7.1%, to average $78.35/b, while the NYMEX WTI front-month contract gained $5.40, or 7.7%, to average $75.10/b. The GME Oman front-month contract increased by $7.14, or 9.8%, m-o-m, to average $80.22/b. The ICE Brent-NYMEX WTI first-month spread contracted by 18¢, m-o-m, to average $3.25/b. Among major crude benchmarks, Dubai and GME Oman showed the most significant strengthening in price structure, outpacing Brent and WTI. Hedge funds and other money managers sharply increased their net long positions in ICE Brent along with substantial financial flows.

World Economy

The world economic growth forecasts remain unchanged at 3.1% for 2025 and 3.2% for 2026. The US growth forecast is unchanged at 2.4% for 2025 and 2.3% for 2026. Japan’s growth forecasts stand at 1.0% for both 2025 and 2026, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. Eurozone economic growth for 2025 is revised down slightly and projected at 0.9% and is forecast to rise to 1.1% in 2026. China’s economic growth forecast for 2025 remains at 4.7% with a slight deceleration to 4.6% in 2026. India’s economic growth forecasts remain at 6.5% for both 2025 and 2026. Brazil’s economic growth forecasts remain at 2.3% in 2025 and 2.5% in 2026. Russia’s economic growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are unchanged at 1.9% and 1.5%, respectively.

World Oil Demand

The global oil demand growth forecast for 2025 remains unchanged at 1.4 mb/d. The OECD is projected to grow by about 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, while the non-OECD is forecast to grow by about 1.3 mb/d. This robust oil demand growth is expected to continue in 2026. Global oil demand for 2026 is forecast to grow by 1.4 mb/d, y-o-y, unchanged from last month’s assessment. The OECD is forecast to grow by about 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, while demand in the non-OECD is forecast to grow by about 1.3 mb/d.

World Oil Supply

Non-DoC liquids supply (i.e. liquids supply from countries not participating in the Declaration of Cooperation) is forecast to grow by 1.0 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2025, revised down by 0.1 mb/d from last month’s assessment. The main growth drivers are expected to be the US, Brazil, Canada, and Norway. Non-DoC liquids supply growth in 2026 is also forecast at 1.0 mb/d, mainly driven by the US, Brazil and Canada. Meanwhile, natural gas liquids (NGLs) and non-conventional liquids from countries participating in the DoC are forecast to grow by about 80 tb/d, y-o-y, in 2025, to average 8.4 mb/d, followed by an increase of about 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2026 to average 8.5 mb/d. Crude oil production by the countries participating in the DoC decreased by 118 tb/d in January, m-o-m, averaging about 40.62 mb/d, as reported by available secondary sources.

Product Markets and Refining Operations

In January, refinery margins rose on the US Gulf Coast (USGC) as the recent refinery outages due to winter storms and refinery maintenance ramp-ups weighed on refinery product output. This coupled with robust US product exports in January resulted in gains in all parts of the barrel except for fuel oil. In contrast, margins declined both in Rotterdam and Singapore as stronger feedstock prices and high freight rates contributed to subdued product outflows. This placed added pressure on product crack performance in both regions except for middle distillates in Europe. Global refinery intake In January declined 1.0 mb/d, m-o-m, to average 81.3 mb/d, due to refinery outages amid severe weather in the US. However, compared to the same month last year, global intake rose was 750 tb/d higher.

Tanker Market

Dirty spot freight rates registered a slow start to the year. VLCCs showed the best performance in January, with the Middle East-to-East route up 38%, m-o-m, amid more activities on the longer haul routes. The Suezmax and Aframax markets fared less well, amid more muted activity due to renewed trade uncertainties. Suezmax rates on the US Gulf Coast-to-Europe route declined by 11%, m-o-m, while Aframax spot rates around the Mediterranean fell by 18%, m-o-m. In the clean tanker market, East of Suez rates rose by 20%, m-o-m, on average, while West of Suez rates fell by 5%, m-o-m.

Crude and Refined Products Trade

Available data for January shows US crude imports starting the year slightly above the previous five-year average at 6.4 mb/d. US crude exports came in just below 4 mb/d, despite icy weather in the shale-producing regions and the US Gulf Coast. US product imports fell 2%, with declines led by gasoline. Preliminary estimates for OECD Europe indicate crude imports in January were lower both m-o-m and y-o-y, as reduced flows to the Netherlands and France outweighed higher imports into the UK and Italy. OECD Europe product exports were down, amid reduced flows to Africa. Complete data for 2024 shows Japan’s crude imports declined by about 9% last year, amid muted economic activity, particularly in the first half of the year. Japan’s product imports were broadly unchanged, as a pickup in demand in the latter part of 2024 avoided a decline. In China, crude imports showed a decline in 2024, averaging 11.0 mb/d. In contrast, China’s product imports marked a fresh record high, supported by refinery and petrochemical feedstock demand. India’s crude and product imports recorded fresh record highs in 2024, averaging 4.8 mb/d and 1.2 mb/d, respectively. Higher inflows were supported by a healthy economy, as well as election activities at the start of the year. India’s product exports also edged higher.

Commercial Stock Movements

Preliminary December 2024 data shows total OECD commercial oil stocks up by 4.3 mb, m-o-m. At 2,754 mb, they were 172.1 mb below the 2015–2019 average. Within the components, crude stocks went down by 0.8 mb, while products stocks rose by 5.1 mb, m-o-m. OECD commercial crude stocks stood at 1,307 mb, which is 120.7 mb less than the 2015–2019 average. OECD total product stocks stood at 1,447 mb, 51.4 mb below the 2015–2019 average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks rose by 0.9 days, m-o-m, in December to stand at 61.3 days, which is 1.1 days lower than the 2015–2019 average.

Balance of Supply and Demand

Demand for DoC crude (i.e. crude from countries participating in the DoC) in 2025 is revised up by around 0.1 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment, to stand at 42.6 mb/d, about 0.4 mb/d higher than the estimate for 2024. For 2026, demand for DoC crude is revised up by around 0.2 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment, to stand at 42.9 mb/d, about 0.3 mb/d higher than the forecast for 2025.