In April, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value declined by $5.02, or 6.8%, m-o-m, to average $68.98/b. The ICE Brent front-month contract declined by $5.01, or 7.0%, m-o-m, to average $66.46/b, and the NYMEX WTI front-month contract declined by $4.98, or 7.3%, m-o-m, to average $62.96/b. The GME Oman front-month contract declined by $4.65, or 6.4%, m-o-m, to average $67.85/b. Meanwhile, the ICE Brent-NYMEX WTI first-month spread narrowed slightly by 3¢, m-o-m, to average $3.50/b. The front end of the ICE Brent, NYMEX WTI and GME Oman forward curves strengthened further in April, m-o-m, with the nearest-month time spreads moving into stronger backwardation, reflecting traders’ optimism about the market outlook in the short-term.

The global economy continues to demonstrate a steady growth trend despite recent tariff-related developments. The global economic growth forecast for 2025 is revised down slightly to 2.9%, but the growth forecast for 2026 remains at 3.1%. Following the decline in economic growth seen in 1Q25, the US economic growth forecasts are revised down to 1.7% for 2025 and 2.1% for 2026. Japan’s economic growth forecasts remain unchanged at 1% for 2025 and 0.9% for 2026. Given the better-than-expected performance in 1Q25, the Eurozone’s economic growth forecast for 2025 is revised up slightly to 1% but remains at 1.1% for 2026. China’s economic growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 remain unchanged at 4.6% and 4.5%, respectively. Similarly, India’s economic growth forecasts remain unchanged at 6.3% for 2025 and 6.5% for 2026. Brazil’s economic growth forecasts remain unchanged at 2.3% for 2025 and 2.5% for 2026. Also, Russia’s economic growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 remain unchanged at 1.9% and 1.5%, respectively.

Global oil demand in 2025 is expected to grow by 1.3 mb/d, y-o-y, unchanged from last month’s assessment. Some minor adjustments were made in 1Q25, mainly due to the receipt of actual data. In the OECD, oil demand is expected to expand by about 0.1 mb/d, while non-OECD demand is forecast to increase by about 1.2 mb/d in 2025. In 2026, world oil demand is projected to rise by 1.3 mb/d, y-o-y, also unchanged from last month’s assessment. The OECD is anticipated to grow by around 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2026, while demand in the non-OECD is expected to increase by about 1.2 mb/d, y-o-y.

Non-DoC liquids supply (i.e., liquids supply from countries not participating in the Declaration of Cooperation) is forecast to grow by about 0.8 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2025, revised down by about 0.1 mb/d from last month’s assessment. The main growth drivers are expected to be the US, Brazil, Canada, and Argentina. The non-DoC liquids supply growth forecast in 2026 is also revised down by about 0.1 mb/d to reach 0.8 mb/d, with the US, Brazil, Canada, and Argentina as the key drivers. Meanwhile, natural gas liquids (NGLs) and non-conventional liquids from countries participating in the DoC are forecast to grow by 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2025, to average 8.4 mb/d, followed by an increase of about 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2026, to average 8.5 mb/d. Crude oil production by countries participating in the DoC decreased by 106 tb/d in April, m-o-m, averaging about 40.92 mb/d, as reported by available secondary sources.

In April, refinery margins in the USGC reversed course to show a partial recovery from the previous months’ losses, while in Northwest Europe and Southeast Asia, margins continued to trend downward. On the US Gulf Coast (USGC), a stronger gasoline market, in line with seasonal trends, accounted for most of the gains amid lower availability, while a positive jet/kerosene and high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) crack spread performance added to the upside. In Rotterdam, product markets weakened, despite significant gasoline and HSFO support. Subdued gasoline blending demand, rising naphtha availability and softer gasoil exports exerted pressure on European refining profitability. In Singapore, margins were dragged down by lower buying interest for naphtha due to higher prices and abundant residual fuel supplies. Global refinery intake continued to fall in April, dropping by nearly 1.2 mb/d, m-o-m. Global intake reached an average of 79.3 mb/d in April, which is about 500 tb/d lower, y-o-y.

Dirty tanker spot freight rates improved, m-o-m, in April, supported by expected higher tonnage demand out of the Middle East. VLCC spot freight rates on the Middle East-to-East route and West Africa-to-East route rose 2% each, m-o-m. In contrast, rates on the Middle East-to-West route fell 3%, m-o-m, amid a drop in flows to the US. Suezmax spot freight rates gained 15%, m-o-m, on the West Africa-to-USGC route, supported by higher activities in the Atlantic basin. In the Aframax market, a tighter balance boosted cross-Med spot freight rates by 30%, m-o-m. In the clean tanker market, spot freight rates were broadly lower, weighed down by refinery maintenance and ample tonnage availability. East of Suez rates fell by 13%, m-o-m, on average, while West of Suez rates declined by 14%, m-o-m.

In April, US crude imports averaged 5.8 mb/d. This represents a decline of 0.1 mb/d, m-o-m, and 0.8 mb/d, y-o-y. US crude exports averaged 4.1 mb/d, broadly in line with year-ago levels and up by about 2%, m-o-m. US product imports declined by 19%, y-o-y, averaging 1.7 mb/d, while US product exports were up by 4%, y-o-y, to average 6.7 mb/d. Preliminary estimates for April show OECD Europe crude imports declining, m-o-m, amid lower flows from Kazakhstan, as well as Nigeria and Canada into the region, which offset an increase in imports of US crude. OECD Europe product imports remained steady, with gains across all major products except LPG. The latest official data for Japan shows crude imports in March rose by 5%, m-o-m, to average 2.5 mb/d. Japan’s product imports increased by 12%, m-o-m, driven by naphtha inflows, while product exports slipped by almost 8%, m-o-m, due to declines in gasoline and gasoil. China’s crude imports averaged 12.1 mb/d in March, the first time above 12 mb/d since August 2023, as some delayed imports were resolved. Product imports into China fell by almost 7%, m-o-m, in March, amid a sharp decline in fuel oil, while exports jumped by around 29%, m-o-m, driven by higher outflows of gasoline. India’s crude imports set a new record high of 5.4 mb/d in March, following a m-o-m increase of over 5%. India’s product imports rose by 2%, m-o-m, amid higher inflows of LPG. Product exports slipped by almost 3%, m-o-m, but remained strong, as declines in naphtha and gasoline were offset by increased outflows of diesel and fuel oil.

Preliminary data shows that OECD commercial oil inventories stood at 2,740 mb in March, around 10.3 mb higher, m-o-m. At this level, OECD commercial oil stocks were 173 mb below the 2015–2019 average. Within the components, crude stocks went up by 21.4 mb, m-o-m, while product stocks fell by 11.2 mb, m-o-m. OECD commercial crude stood at 1,323 mb, which is 139 mb less than the 2015–2019 average. OECD total product stocks stood at 1,417 mb, some 34 mb below the 2015–2019 average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial oil stocks fell by 0.3 days, m-o-m, to stand at 60.3 days in March, which is 2.2 days lower than the 2015–2019 average.

Demand for DoC crude (i.e., crude from countries participating in the Declaration of Cooperation) is revised upward by about 0.1 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 42.6 mb/d in 2025. This represents an increase of approximately 0.4 mb/d compared to the 2024 estimate. The demand forecast for 2026 is also revised upward by about 0.1 mb/d from the previous month, reaching 42.9 mb/d—about 0.4 mb/d higher than the 2025 projection.